Indonesian Court Delivers Verdict: Prabowo prevails

Indonesia, the world's third-largest democracy, recently witnessed a significant legal saga surrounding its presidential elections, culminating in pivotal rulings by the Constitutional Court today. The Constitutional Court of Indonesia delivered a verdict dismissing a challenge to the outcome of the country's presidential election (held in February), which saw Defence minister, Prabowo Subianto emerge victorious. The legal challenge stemmed from allegations that procedural changes unfairly facilitated the candidacy of the outgoing president's son as Prabowo's running mate. Additionally, the losing presidential candidates had also alleged misuse of state institutions and social aid to secure votes.

Prabowo, aged 72, secured victory in February's election, securing 58.6% of the vote and securing his position as the next leader of the world's third-largest democracy, defeating former Jakarta governor, Anies Baswedan and another candidate, Ganjar Pranowo. During the campaign period, accusations swirled regarding alleged interference by the outgoing leader, Joko Widodo, popularly known as Jokowi, aimed at bolstering Prabowo's chances. These allegations included claims of orchestrating regulatory adjustments to enable Jokowi's eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to stand as Prabowo's vice-presidential candidate.

Anies, who garnered 24.9% of the vote, refused to concede defeat upon the announcement of the official election results. He contended that state intervention had tipped the scales in favour of Prabowo, citing instances such as the distribution of social aid aimed at influencing voter sentiment. The court dismissed cases against the vice president-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka and his father, incumbent president Joko Widodo. In the first case, the Constitutional Court declined to disqualify Gibran Rakabuming Raka from running in the presidential elections. Instead, it held the Election Committee (KPU) accountable for ethical violations, urging sanctions for their failure to amend regulations following the court's ruling on lowering the minimum age requirement for presidential candidates. This ruling effectively paved the way for Gibran's participation in the electoral process.

In the second case, the court absolved President Joko Widodo of allegations of influencing the election outcome through the government's social assistance programs during the campaign. Notably, cabinet ministers, including Coordinating Minister for Human Development Muhadjir Effendy, testified in the case, asserting that the social assistance events were part of the government's regular programs, devoid of electoral motives. In both cases the Court cited a the lack of evidence of systematic fraud or presidential meddling.

These rulings, although anticipated, drew mixed reactions, particularly from the losing candidates in the presidential elections. The court's rejection of challenges seeking a rerun of the election underscored the contentious nature of Indonesian politics. Although dissenting opinions were observed among the judges on the bench, majority opinion prevailed (with five judges ruling in favour of rejection the petition, and three dissenting), reaffirming the validity of the election results and dismissing claims of electoral malpractice. As a consequence, our forecast of broad policy continuity under Prabowo remains unchanged. Prabowo is likely to follow in the foot steps of Jokowi. Jokowi's key initiatives (and projects) will persist, albeit with probable delays, particularly evident in the capital relocation project. Mr. Prabowo's comparatively limited experience in foreign affairs may hinder his ability to attract foreign investors effectively. Nonetheless, he intends to uphold Jokowi-era industrial strategies, including the downstream processing of vital minerals and the promotion of electric-vehicle manufacturing.