From Trade War to Trade Truce: Washington and Delhi Recalibrate

February 16, 2026 7:50 AM UTC

The US–India interim trade pact lowers tariffs after a bruising 2025 dispute, offering relief to Indian exporters while committing New Delhi to expanded market access for American goods. Washington is presenting the deal, including India’s stated intent to import up to USD 500bn in US energy and

India’s Union FY27 Budget: A Pragmatic Blueprint That Prioritises Stability over Stimulus

February 9, 2026 7:47 AM UTC

India’s 2026–27 Union Budget opts for prudence over populism, targeting a fiscal deficit of 4.3% of GDP and boosting capital expenditure by 11.5%. The government shifts focus to services-led job creation, defence modernisation, and water infrastructure while trimming subsidies, while tax tweaks

RBI Holds Rates Steady as Growth Proves Durable

February 6, 2026 10:52 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India has opted for composure holding rates at 5.25% as it weighs past easing, a benign inflation profile, and the rupee’s fragility in volatile global conditions. This is a pause with options, not a pivot. 

India–EU Tie-Up Redraws Trade Lines

January 27, 2026 5:40 AM UTC

The India–EU FTA is more than a trade deal, it is a strategic alignment, forged in an era of global fragmentation. It offers India stable access to a wealthy, rules-based market, while providing Europe a direct foothold in Asia’s growth engine. In a world of transactional superpowers, it appears

RBI Stresses Domestic Resilience as Global Volatility Mounts

January 26, 2026 4:51 PM UTC

The RBI’s latest review highlights a domestic economy operating with momentum and reform tailwinds, but increasingly exposed to global turbulence. Its bet is that deeper financial markets, strong demand, and a shift towards diversified trade can provide the resilience needed to stay on course. In

Rupee Volatility Tests RBI, But Buffers Remain Strong

January 16, 2026 1:12 PM UTC

India’s forex reserves are under pressure from capital outflows and rupee weakness, but the system remains resilient. The RBI has room to manage volatility, backed by strong reserve buffers. 

India Pushes for EU Trade Deal as US Tariff Pressures Mount

January 8, 2026 6:33 PM UTC

As US tariffs bite, India is hedging its bets, fast-tracking the EU deal to anchor exports in a more predictable trade orbit and signal it's no longer playing by Washington’s rules alone.

RBI Cuts Repo Rate to 5.25% as Inflation Hits Record Lows

December 5, 2025 4:28 PM UTC

The RBI’s December cut marks a decisive shift toward pro-growth policy at a moment of exceptionally low inflation. With the economy outperforming and price pressures collapsing, the central bank is signalling confidence—but the trajectory of the rupee and the uncertainty of US trade policy remai

Asia Country Risk Ratings

December 3, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Phillipines.  

India GDP Review: India’s Economy Surges 8.2% in Q2

December 1, 2025 7:43 AM UTC

India’s GDP grew 8.2% in Q2 FY26, far exceeding market and RBI expectations and marking its strongest performance in six quarters. The expansion was powered by manufacturing, services and a sharp rebound in consumption, amplified by a favourable deflator and GST rate cuts. With first-half growth n

India’s Fiscal Deficit Swells, Yet 4.4% Target Still Within Reach

November 7, 2025 7:30 PM UTC

India’s fiscal performance in H1 reflects a calculated front-loading of capex to support growth, while record non-tax revenues offer a buffer. Execution risks remain in H2, but the government appears confident in meeting its 4.4% deficit target without derailing market or reform momentum.

Breakthrough in Sight: India and US Move Towards Bilateral Trade Agreement

October 30, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

The India–US trade deal now seems within reach after months of deadlock, with both sides signalling convergence on major issues. For Indian exporters, particularly in textiles, marine products, and engineering goods, the removal of US tariffs would provide a timely boost amid global demand uncerta

India’s Core Sector Growth Slows to 3%: Infrastructure Holds Firm, Energy Falters

October 28, 2025 6:14 AM UTC

India’s September core sector data encapsulates a pivotal juncture for the economy — resilient infrastructure activity offset by energy vulnerability. Slowing core output implies lower industrial output growth over Q2-FY26.

India Accelerates Mineral Diplomacy as Beijing Tightens Export Controls

October 17, 2025 7:31 AM UTC

China’s expanded export curbs on rare earths have pushed India to fast-track its critical minerals strategy — combining domestic stockpiles, new mining auctions, and global supply alliances. New Delhi’s plan hinges on building refining capacity and securing long-term deals in Latin America, Af

Oil, Tariffs, and Technology: Inside India–US Trade Negotiations

October 17, 2025 6:27 AM UTC

India and the US are nearing the first phase of a long-awaited Bilateral Trade Agreement, with negotiations in Washington focusing on tariffs, digital standards, and supply-chain resilience.Energy remains the flashpoint, as Washington’s 50% duties tied to India’s Russian oil imports complicate p

RBI Holds Rates, Balances Growth Optimism with Global Risks

October 2, 2025 6:09 AM UTC

The RBI held the repo rate at 5.5% in its October review, keeping policy neutral after 100 bps of cuts earlier this year. Inflation was sharply revised down to 2.6% in FY26, while growth was upgraded to 6.8%, reflecting resilient domestic demand. The decision reflects a strategy of stability—pausi

RBI Likely to Hold Rates, Watchful of Tariffs and Festive Demand

September 29, 2025 6:57 AM UTC

The RBI is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5% in its October review, pausing after three consecutive cuts earlier this year. With inflation undershooting and GST rationalisation set to push CPI lower, policymakers see little need for immediate action. The central bank will instead wait

New GST Slabs to Boost Demand as India Faces 50% US Tariffs

September 8, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

India’s landmark GST 2.0 reform, effective 22 September 2025, simplifies slabs to 5% and 18%, with a 40% rate for sin goods. By easing prices on essentials and mid-market products, the move aims to boost demand and partially offset the drag from US tariffs of 50% on Indian exports. While household

Modi in China: Eurasian Diplomacy Meets US Tariff Tensions

September 8, 2025 6:02 AM UTC

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Tianjin for the SCO Summit underscored India’s pursuit of strategic autonomy—engaging China and Russia while reaffirming ties with the US. Publicly, India backed Eurasian financial and connectivity initiatives, while tactically reopening dialogue with Beijing. Fo

Asia Country Risk Ratings

September 4, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Phillipines.  

India GDP Review: Public Spending and Services Lift India’s Growth to Five-Quarter High

September 2, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

India’s economy grew 7.8% y/y in Q1 FY25, beating expectations. Strong gains in construction, services, and agriculture underpinned the recovery, while private consumption and investment remained subdued. However, sustaining momentum in FY26 will hinge on broad-based demand and improving global co

India GDP Preview: Q1FY26 Growth - Services Surge, Industry Slows: India’s Uneven Q1 Recovery

August 29, 2025 4:49 AM UTC

India’s economy likely grew 6.6% yr/yr in Q1 FY26, down from 7.4% in the previous quarter, as weak private investment and soft industrial output offset robust government spending. Growth was buoyed by strong public capex and resilient services, while manufacturing lagged. Full-year GDP is forecast

Tariffs and Tensions: India–US Trade Talks Stalled as Relations Sour

August 25, 2025 6:25 AM UTC

India–US relations have entered a tense phase after Washington doubled tariffs on Indian exports to 50%, the steepest duties applied to any US trading partner. The move, tied to India’s record Russian oil imports, has derailed trade talks scheduled for late August. With USD 87bn in exports at ri

No Rush to Ease: RBI Flags External Risks, Holds Policy Steady

August 6, 2025 4:39 PM UTC

The RBI held the policy rate at 5.5% in its August 2025 meeting, opting for a strategic pause after front-loading 100bps of cuts earlier this year. While inflation has dropped sharply, global trade risks and sticky core prices argue against further easing for now. The central bank’s neutral stance

Tariffs and Tensions: India Holds Its Ground Amid US Pressure

August 4, 2025 5:17 AM UTC

India has responded firmly to US tariff escalation, defending its strategic autonomy on Russian oil and domestic market protections. The economic hit is manageable, but the geopolitical signal is clear: India won’t yield under pressure. Talks will continue, but New Delhi won’t trade core interes

The India–UK Free Trade Agreement: Big Win or Big Gamble?

July 28, 2025 4:37 AM UTC

India and the UK have signed a landmark Free Trade Agreement aimed at doubling bilateral trade by 2030. The deal grants India near-total duty-free access for its goods, boosts prospects for agriculture, textiles, and services, and safeguards sensitive sectors. It also signals New Delhi’s evolving

No Deal Yet: India–US Trade Talks Stretch Beyond August Deadline

July 24, 2025 5:42 AM UTC

India and the US have made progress in negotiations for an interim trade deal, but key sticking points—particularly around agriculture and autos—remain unresolved ahead of the August 1 deadline for new US tariffs. President Trump’s tariff-first strategy has pushed India to seek partial relief,

Solid Buffers, Soft Spots: India’s Debt Metrics in Focus

July 15, 2025 12:00 PM UTC

India’s fiscal metrics for FY26 show strong early gains, with a sharply lower deficit and robust revenue support from RBI dividends and capital spending. Externally, the country’s debt levels have risen but remain manageable, backed by healthy reserves and a low debt-to-GDP ratio. However, short

Negotiating the Fine Print: India’s Calculated Stance in US Tariff Talks

July 11, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

India and US continue to negotiate a favourable deal with August 1 as a firm deadline. India will remain unwilling to compromise on key sectors such as agriculture and dairy but concessions for auto sector are likely. However, no deal will be signed without certain benefits for Indian exporters as w

Asia Country Risk Ratings

June 5, 2025 10:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan and Thailand.  

India GDP Review: Growth Outpaces Expectations as Q4 GDP Hits Four-Quarter High

June 2, 2025 11:56 AM UTC

India’s economy grew 7.4% y/y in Q4 FY25, beating expectations and capping full-year growth at 6.5%. Strong gains in construction, services, and agriculture underpinned the recovery, while private consumption and investment strengthened. However, sustaining momentum in FY26 will hinge on broad-bas

India Q4 FY25 GDP Preview: Growth Rebounds, But Underlying Demand Still Uneven

May 23, 2025 3:43 PM UTC

While the Q4 FY25 GDP figures indicate a rebound, the sustainability of this growth is uncertain. The economy's heavy dependence on government spending raises concerns about long-term fiscal health. India's economic recovery in Q4 FY25 reflects a partial rebound facilitated by government expenditure

Ceasefire or Reset? India Redraws the Rules

May 12, 2025 6:05 AM UTC

India and Pakistan have entered a fragile ceasefire after a week of precision strikes, drone warfare, and missile exchanges. But New Delhi’s clear message—that future terror attacks will be treated as acts of war—marks a strategic shift. Deterrence in South Asia has a new author, and India is

Deterrence on a Deadline: India, Pakistan, and the New Escalation Paradigm

May 9, 2025 6:29 AM UTC

India and Pakistan are now embroiled in their most serious military confrontation in years, with hostilities expanding across air, land, and unmanned domains. Following the May 7 cross-border strikes under Operation Sindoor, India launched a calibrated military offensive on Thursday targeting Pakist

Transit Revoked, Ties Recalibrated: What Bangladesh's Pivot Signals

May 6, 2025 5:32 AM UTC

India’s revocation of transhipment access to Bangladesh marks a broader shift in bilateral ties, driven by Dhaka’s strategic pivot towards China and Pakistan. The move reflects India’s growing unease over regional security and the erosion of mutual trust post-regime change in Dhaka. For India,

Standoff Renewed: India and Pakistan Edge Closer to the Brink

May 6, 2025 3:33 AM UTC

India–Pakistan tensions have sharply escalated following a deadly terror attack in Kashmir, prompting sweeping diplomatic, military, and economic measures on both sides. New Delhi has ordered mock civilian defence drills and restricted the flow of river Chenab. Additionally, ceasefire violations a

From Tariffs to Technology: JD Vance’s Four-Day Engagement in India

April 28, 2025 6:24 AM UTC

US Vice President JD Vance’s visit to India marked a shift toward a more pragmatic and parity-driven partnership. While reinforcing trade, defence, and energy cooperation, the trip also highlighted the difficult negotiations ahead. 

India Redraws Its Red Lines with Pakistan

April 24, 2025 10:24 AM UTC

In one of the deadliest attacks in Kashmir in years, 26 Hindu tourists were killed by Pakistan-backed militants in Pahalgam. India has responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, expelling Pakistani nationals, and downgrading diplomatic ties — signalling a hard shift in its Pakistan policy. T

India's Industrial Chill: 2.9 % Growth Signals Cooling Engines

April 17, 2025 1:05 PM UTC

India’s factory growth hit the brakes in February, with industrial production rising just 2.9 %, half January’s pace and the slowest since August 2024. Manufacturing and mining lost traction, while a small pickup in electricity output provided limited relief. Stalling consumer‑goods output an

RBI Unveils New Rate Cut, Shifts Stance to Accommodative

April 10, 2025 7:29 AM UTC

In a bid to reignite momentum, the Reserve Bank of India trimmed its key policy rate to 6% and adopted an “accommodative” stance, signalling more support could follow. With inflation now forecast at 4.0% and GDP growth projected at 6.5%, Governor Sanjay Malhotra’s forward-looking policy aims t

Duty Bound: India’s Growth Test Amid US Tariff Heat

April 7, 2025 6:59 AM UTC

The new 26% US tariff on Indian imports poses near-term challenges for India’s export sectors and small businesses, potentially shaving up to 0.5% off GDP growth. But it also opens doors for India to capture global market share as rivals like China and Vietnam face even steeper duties. With sector

From Neutral to Accommodative? RBI Gears Up for Fresh Easing

April 7, 2025 3:31 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on April 9, 2025, following a three-day meeting of its MPC. We anticipate a reduction of 25 basis points in the benchmark repo rate, bringing it down from 6.25% to 6%. This prospective cut would constitute the seco

Asia Country Risk Ratings

March 4, 2025 11:00 AM UTC

We provide country risk reviews for Asia countries including China, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand.  

India GDP Preview: Q3FY25 Growth - A Tepid Rebound

February 26, 2025 4:50 AM UTC

India's GDP saw a slight recovery in the last quarter of 2024, growing at 6.3% due to increased government spending. This rebound, however, still falls short of previous highs, reflecting the economy's reliance on state intervention amid weak private sector and consumer activity. Despite fiscal effo

Reciprocal Risks: The Stakes of U.S. Tariffs for India's Export Sectors

February 24, 2025 5:58 AM UTC

As U.S. President Donald Trump proposes reciprocal tariffs targeting nations like India, which impose higher duties on American goods, the trade relations between the U.S. and India face new tensions. This policy pivot coincides with efforts by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to strengthen bilat

Rate Cuts on the Horizon: RBI Signals Confidence in Inflation Outlook

February 24, 2025 1:50 AM UTC

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is tilting toward additional interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, rather than exclusively focusing on controlling inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, citing headline inflation convergi

BJP Ends 27-Year Drought in Delhi with Decisive Win

February 14, 2025 7:06 AM UTC

The BJP ended its 27-year drought in Delhi, winning 47 seats and breaking AAP’s dominance. The victory was driven by a united party front, strong RSS ground support, success in key voter blocs, including Sikh, Punjabi, and Dalit communities and the promise of freebies. AAP’s vote share fell to 4

India’s FY26 Budget: Balancing Growth, Fiscal Prudence, and Political Realities

February 12, 2025 4:56 PM UTC

India's FY26 budget is a strategic attempt to sustain economic expansion while maintaining fiscal consolidation, with the government targeting a nominal GDP growth of 10.1% and a real GDP expansion of 6.3%-6.8%. The budget continues its capex-led growth approach, increasing infrastructure investment

Monetary Policy Reset: RBI’s Balancing Act Begins

February 7, 2025 4:57 PM UTC

The RBI has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, marking its first reduction in five years. While aimed at supporting growth, the central bank maintains a neutral stance, signaling caution amid global uncertainties. Inflation is projected to ease, but risks from trade disruptions and finan