Preview: Due September 17 - U.S. August Retail Sales - Autos to slip, ex autos to pause after a strong July
We expect a 0.5% decline in August retail sales due to a dip in autos, though we expect sales to be unhanged both ex autos and ex autos and gasoline after two straight above trend months.
Auto sales slipped in June due to temporary problems with computer software but bounced back in July. Industry data shows a weak month from August auto sales which could be a sign of easing demand now that the temporary distortions have faded.
Consumer spending has been running well ahead of real disposable income which suggests that recent consumer momentum will be difficult to sustain. Still, the gains ex auto and ex auto and gasoline in June and July were impressive and we will need more than one subdued month to confirm a slowing in trend.
Unchanged sales ex auto and ex auto and gasoline would be similar to the outcomes seen in April and May before the stronger data seen in June and July.
Price data suggests gasoline is likely to see little change for a second straight month.
