Published: 2024-05-06T07:17:51.000Z
EUR/USD Flows: Sideways but Policy and Ukraine in Focus
Director of Research , Macroeconomics and Strategy
-
Quiet conditions with the UK closed, but some focus on Fed and ECB prospects.
EUR/USD is little changed in early Europe. However, the softer than expected U.S. employment report has seen money markets moving towards discounting two rate cuts from the Fed in 2024. In turn this provides a little more EUR protection, given the ECB is likely to start easing in June. Meanwhile, reports (UK Sunday Times) suggesting that Ukraine could start peace talks in 2025 has caught some interest, as it reflects the deadlock currently and the risk that Ukraine could lose some ground in a Russia summer 2024 offensive.