RBA Review: Waiting to ease

September 24, 2024 5:12 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on September 24th kept rates on hold 

RBA Review: No surprise

August 6, 2024 5:21 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on August 6th kept rates on hold 

RBA Preview: Should have no surprise

August 5, 2024 7:58 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on August 6th should keep rates on hold as the inflation picture is hotter but does not see more upward momentum

RBA Review: Recognized slower inflation moderation

June 18, 2024 5:06 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on June 18th has kept rates on hold and see the moderation of inflation slower than expected

BoJ's Door Closing But Window Opens

May 27, 2024 5:23 AM UTC

Since the BoJ moved interest rate to 0% in March, most market participants expects further tightening as it is hard to believe the BoJ would hike once after all these years of ultra-loose monetary policy, in face of higher inflation. However, with headline inflation trading closer to 2%, it seems th

RBA Review: Change in wordings, no change in heart

May 7, 2024 6:11 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on May 7th has kept rates on hold and see a change wordings in forward guidance but not the meaning.

RBA Review: Rate as expected but forward guidance changed

March 19, 2024 6:31 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on Mar 19th has kept rates on hold but see a change in forward guidance, which seems to be preparing for a potential shift in monetary policy if data approves.

RBA Preview: Copy and Paste

March 18, 2024 3:35 AM UTC

The RBA meeting on Mar 19th will keep rates on hold as the latest monthly CPI meets estimate but remain above the RBA's inflation target range. The RBA would continue to suggest data dependency be their guide in coming rate decision. We believe there will be no change in forward guidance as CPI is r

A Trump Reelection and U.S. Government Bond Yields?

January 24, 2024 2:41 PM UTC

Expectations are firming that Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination, but the presidential election race is currently 50/50. If Trump were reelected as U.S. president, what would it mean for U.S. Treasuries? 
There would be a very full agenda for financial markets in 2025 if Trump were reel

Yield Curve Disinversion To Resume?

January 23, 2024 1:06 PM UTC

For 2024 as a whole, we see a strategic process of yield curve inversion lessening and swing to a positive shaped yield curve by year-end.  For 10-2yr this process will likely be clearer in the U.S. for two reasons.  Firstly, Fed Funds is more divergent from neutral policy rates than in the EZ, bu

Japan: 10yr JGB Yields set to Rise Moderately

January 18, 2024 10:15 AM UTC

The more subdued profile of Japanese wages, plus a delay in the 1st BOJ hike, has prompted us to lower the forecast of a rise in 10yr JGB yields in 2024 – though we still see a rise above 1% (Figure 1).  As BOJ tightening stops, we see 10yr JGB yields falling back again in 2025. 

Taiwan: DPP Weaker than 2020

January 15, 2024 8:49 AM UTC

The DPP have won the Taiwan presidential election.  However, the DPP has lost its majority in parliament, while the 3rd party (Taiwan People Party (TPP) are signalling they will not form a coalition with (Kuomintang) KTT.  This will restrain the DPP.  However, China will still likely show its dis

BoJ: The Pace of Exit

January 15, 2024 5:41 AM UTC

The BoJ has kicked the can down to the spring wage negotiation before another step in monetary policy. While current inflation forecast has exceeded BoJ's 2% target in all three items of headline, ex fresh food and ex fresh food & energy, the wage growth did not reach a "sustainable" level, which Ue

USD Reserve Status: Slow Slippage

December 27, 2023 1:23 PM UTC

Latest IMF COFER data shows that the USD reserve status is not slipping away quickly, but only slowly.  Two themes to watch in 2024 is the pace of China’s ongoing switch from U.S. Treasuries to other assets including gold and also G7 ideas of confiscating Russian FX reserves.