USD flows: Data neutral, some negative event risk

US data broadly in line with consensus, with retail sales a tad stronger than expected in November but revised modestly lower in October. PPI core was a little weaker than expected m/m in November, but October was revised up. The USD is if anything a tad softer but generally not much changed. There is the possibility of a Supreme Court announcement on tariffs today, but otherwise not a lot else to look forward to for the rest of the day, although geopolitics remains a focus, with US action on Iran still a significant possibility. If the US do act, it will likely be USD positive against the riskier currencies, but the JPY and CHF could benefit, although much will depend on how effective/destabilising any US action is. The Supreme Court announcement (if it comes) looks unlikely to have a significant permanent impact, as most US tariffs are now enshrined in trade deals over which the court has no jurisdiction, but it could cause some short term volatility. In general, the risks may be towards modest risk negative moves favouring the safer havens. This includes the USD, with the data, though much as expected, looking consistent with a strong Q4.