EUR/USD, USD/JPY - looking quiet unless yen sees another flurry

July 3, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

Could be quiet into US holiday unless there is another flurry of squaring

USD/JPY flows: Capped for Now

July 3, 2026 4:39 AM UTC

Market Concern for Intervention

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - miss on payrolls trims Fed bets, pulls dollar back

July 2, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Payrolls misses, especially with revisions and, even with unemployment dip, gives the Fed more space to stay on hold
Takes some wind out of the dollar's sail, and makes USD/JPY exit look well timed

USD/JPY flows: Spoofy action to become occupational hazard

July 2, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Specific trigger for quick USD/JPY dip unclear as yet
But burst of short yen covering had been expected prior to US holiday
And spoofing is likely to become increasingly common - both MoF and market generated

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: Cross consolidates break lower; dollar waits for payrolls

July 2, 2026 6:46 AM UTC

Waiting game ahead of payrolls holiday, some wariness over MoF
Dollar also checked since Warsh's comments
EUR/GBP the main interest in recent hours with the range breakdown

USD/JPY flows: Silent Intervention Soon?

July 2, 2026 4:11 AM UTC

Reuter cited sources that Japanese officials are moving away from telegraphing intervention risk and toward unsignalled action designed to squeeze speculative yen short positions

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: ISM another slight miss, back to as-you-were

July 1, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

ISM another small miss, EUR/USD back to 1.14
Mkt eyes payrolls and then closing shop early ahead of 'risky' US holiday?

EUR/USD flows: Slight miss on ADP shrugged off as within noise tolerance

July 1, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

ADP slight downside given the benefit of the doubt
EUR/USD still a bit heavy, market's ECB follow up expectations ebb out

EUR/USD flows: HICP, build up to payrolls on the agenda

July 1, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

USD/JPY still sneaking out the new highs
Otherwise relatively sidelined, building into payrolls as the next focal point

USD/JPY flows: Refreshing High

July 1, 2026 4:17 AM UTC

USD/JPY refreshes decade high

EUR/USD flows: Bessent's musings on payrolls keeps it firmly on the radar

June 30, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

EUR/USD still glued to 1.14
Bessent 'wouldn't be surprised' by good payrolls

EUR/USD flows: Softer inflation prints; pair keeping tabs on 1.14

June 30, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

German state, Italian and especially French inflation prints come in softer
Bolsters short-end, DE2s near the yield pullback lows
EUR/USD keeps tabs on 1.14 however

USD/JPY flows: Lifted into period end; EUR/USD 1.14 options

June 30, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

New highs for USD/JPY, seeing lift into period-end
1.14 options for EUR/USD may attract 

USD/JPY flows: Jawboning

June 30, 2026 4:19 AM UTC

Japan's FM will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time
Japan May unemployment rate 2.5%

EUR/USD flows: Still leaning to unwind o/s conditions, better sellers seen above

June 29, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

Fractious w/e gives way to latest stand down and talks to resume
Mkt still leaning towards unwinding overbought dollar but limit seen to correction
Inflation data, period end, Lagarde later; payrolls on the radar

USD/JPY flows: Hovering at recent high

June 29, 2026 4:13 AM UTC

USD/JPY staying around recent high

EUR/USD flows: Consolidating into w/e, risk heavy but choppy

June 26, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

Still somewhat slower heading into the weekend, though the heavier corrective risk tone is still prevailing – Nasdaq future off 1% to be inching a low for the week. It still needs to go some way further to be actually breaking down from an 8-week top if that’s how this choppier action if recent

USD/JPY flows: Tokyo CPI Capped by 2%

June 26, 2026 2:11 AM UTC

Tokyo ex fresh food & energy CPI 1.9% y/y

EUR/USD flows: Consolidation; mulling Bessent and the shape of the Fed curve

June 25, 2026 6:57 AM UTC

Oil fills gap, chip earnings strong
Dollar takes a breather consolidates recent action
Debate over Bessent's comments and what that might say for Fed policy

USD/JPY flows: Staying at Recent High

June 25, 2026 5:23 AM UTC

Iran's IRGC warns ships face action for using Hormuz routes not cleared with Tehran
BoJ Hawk Tamura says neutral rate around 2% 

EUR/USD flows: Yields coming off; follow through taken back

June 24, 2026 2:22 PM UTC

Yields falling off though seen quite symmetrically so far
EUR/USD takes an o/s breather, going back to the 1.1350 break

EUR/USD flows: 38% back; IFO just as expected

June 24, 2026 8:14 AM UTC

Sitting around the next key reference area, can push lower later

EUR/USD flows: Weak German PMI keeps support pressured

June 23, 2026 7:48 AM UTC

Weak German PMI overshadows less negative France print
Keeps EUR/USD pressuring nearby support, with scope for lower

USD, AUD/USD flows: Dollar/risk still on a firm n/t footing

June 23, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

Dollar/risk still breaking firmer near-term amid some position adjustments, chart breaks, and market Fed re-pricing

USD/CAD flows: Bit o/b but CAD still on back foot

June 22, 2026 12:56 PM UTC

CPI data broadly on market
CAD remains on the backfoot, USD/CAD seen higher, though overbought

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: W/e worries stemmed on progress, dollar remains firm

June 22, 2026 6:38 AM UTC

Reported progress in high level talks helps stem w/e escalation worries
Dollar retains its firmer lean since break higher

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: Dollar still supported, Japan policy options still in focus

June 19, 2026 7:13 AM UTC

Hawkish Japan comments at major yen lows, rates and intervention in frame
Hiccups on Iran talks uncomfortable though not unexpected
Burnham wins, data underscores fiscal realities

USD/JPY flows: Jawboning

June 19, 2026 1:13 AM UTC

Japan FM says prepared to take decisive action on speculative FX moves
Japan May headline inflation 1.5% y/y

EUR/USD, USD flows: Data largely with grain, tests next levels

June 18, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

Philly Fed solid details, goes with the grain
Market focused on follow through and levels

USD/JPY flows: The Slow Grind Continues

June 18, 2026 5:48 AM UTC

U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed

USD flows: Lots to digest from the Fed press conference

June 17, 2026 7:09 PM UTC

Taskforces announced, with inflation and balance sheet ones notable
Dots described as pencilled forecasts, and set to be reviewed
Warsh gives mixed view on policy tightness 
Curve pivot flattens but balance sheet review should be watched closely

USD flows: Fed projections nuanced, but bolsters dollar

June 17, 2026 6:27 PM UTC

Dots shift, albeit quite as hawkish in composition as they may seem on first look
Show more a strongly divided Fed, and one than can still hold if data cools 'post Iran'
Nonetheless, median and to a lesser extent the breakdown partly valid the market shift
Dollar firms and continues dalliance with retu

USD flows: Retail sales upside into Fed, mkt holds tight

June 17, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

Another upside from US data, retail sales beats
While with the grain of US resilience and outperformance, mkt holds tight into FOMC

USD/JPY flows: Consolidating Post BoJ

June 17, 2026 4:52 AM UTC

Consolidating Post BoJ

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK/SEK flows: FX sleeping but oil is still moving

June 16, 2026 12:36 PM UTC

Pre-Fed intertia and as market digests two-way pull of deal impact
But oil is still active, extending the break lower and threatening bigger range shift
As such, mkt may later re-focus on ToT and oil trade narratives

USD/JPY, AUD/USD flows: 2 down with no big surprises, FOMC the bigger focus

June 16, 2026 6:23 AM UTC

No big surprises from BoJ or RBA
Dollar settles back from deal reaction, waits for next lead from FOMC

USD flows: Taking stock of current levels vs pre-Iran

June 15, 2026 1:26 PM UTC

 Quick stock check of current pricing vs pre-Iran
Gold still the biggest loser; SEK the highest FX beta
Euro not that far off, low volatility; USD/JPY could correct off 160 handle if stars align

USD/JPY flows: BoJ Locked and Loaded

June 15, 2026 4:56 AM UTC

Market expects the BoJ to hike by 25bps in June

EUR/USD flows: And now the wait

June 12, 2026 6:38 AM UTC

Markets moved to recent oil floor and recent key pair/dollar resistance on the initial headlines
Now in waiting mode to see if this one actually delivers, Iran yet to declare final decision

USD/JPY flows: Up and Down on headlines

June 12, 2026 6:11 AM UTC

Back and forth headline

EUR/USD flows: No big surprises from ECB, bit of sell the fact

June 11, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

ECB initial announcement largely as expected, 
Initial bias is minor sell the fact, 1.15~ next down on intraday chart

EUR/USD flows: Mkt glass half full; ECB in focus with high bar

June 11, 2026 6:33 AM UTC

Oil off the lows, mkt if anything relieved that didn't escalate even more
Stocks still managing to hold the lows at present 
ECB in focus, a lot already priced in to validate

USD/CAD flows: BoC looking through inflation, watching risks

June 10, 2026 1:58 PM UTC

Unchanged with outlook presented in conditional terms
Core stance though is to look through inflation while being more on guard against downside risks especially from US trade deal renewal
Latter remains the main near-term risk for the CAD

EUR/USD, DXY flows: Some relief that CPI avoids upside shocks

June 10, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

'Relief' as core inflation avoids upside surprise and acceleration