EUR/USD Flows - US CPI in focus after Fed Waller; Iran exchanges continue

July 14, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

Brent up at $85 now as oil market reluctantly responds to blockade, strikes in last few sessions
US CPI key, focus sharpened by Fed Waller's remarks

USD/JPY flows: Hovering at Recent High

July 14, 2026 5:16 AM UTC

U.S. military carried out a third consecutive night of strikes against Iran and the reinstated naval blockade of Iran

Japan’s GPIF: Can it turn back the clock on the yen?

July 13, 2026 11:45 AM UTC

·       The GPIF story is not that one public fund can singlehandedly ‘rescue the yen’. The question is more whether Japan can use one of the central institutions that helped drive the Abenomics flow-of-funds regime revolution to change the narrative, re-influence domestic allocation and

USD/JPY flows: Haven USD Bids

July 13, 2026 5:30 AM UTC

USD haven bids

USD/JPY Flows - GPIF window guidance could prove a notable shift

July 10, 2026 7:16 AM UTC

GPIF radical asset allocation overhauls in 2014 and 2020 were major events
Window guidance shifts could be significant especially if they ripple out more widely

USD/JPY flows: Japan FM to Encourage GBIP Purchase Domestic Asset

July 10, 2026 3:57 AM UTC

Japan will seek measures encouraging GPIF and other pension funds to raise investment in Japanese financial assets

EUR/USD Flows - ECB predetermined, Fed open minded? (Fed Williams, ECB Minutes)

July 9, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

ECB Minutes unsurprisingly hawkish given the decision and the presser, but do underscore the rigid view on the mmkt curve
Fed Williams meanwhile nods to upside risks, but mainly highlights 'collective reaction function' and open questions

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - Chilli yesterday, TACO today?

July 9, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Familiar de-escalation comments follow yesterday's outburst and fresh exchanges. Mkt left waiting to hear from Iran
Fed Minutes highlight two scenarios and rate paths ahead. Iran and tech demand remain highly relevant
EUR/GBP meanwhile inching out the lows

USD Flows - Dangerous rhetoric loop?

July 8, 2026 2:55 PM UTC

Iran threat to close Strait adds to the ramp up
Danger that things get out of control in current rhetoric-action one-upping, even if result makes no sense

EUR/USD Flows - Trump shooting from hip at NATO, Iran MOU 'over' and Spain 'no trade'

July 8, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

Trump firing shots at NATO, aiming at Spain and Iran
MoU 'over' comments can spook oil and squeeze NOK (and CAD)

EUR/USD Flows - Mixed Le Pen outcome, France challenges regardless

July 7, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Le Pen court ruling. Challenges for France in any case

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - Kospi lively; FX relatively subdued

July 7, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

Minor edge for the dollar and yen in limited range trade
Kospi has another lively session as pullback continues

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - US NM ISM solid as expected

July 6, 2026 2:25 PM UTC

US NM ISM broadly as expected, another solid report

USD/JPY flows: Rotate Higher

July 6, 2026 4:58 AM UTC

USD Solid on Monday

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - looking quiet unless yen sees another flurry

July 3, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

Could be quiet into US holiday unless there is another flurry of squaring

USD/JPY flows: Capped for Now

July 3, 2026 4:39 AM UTC

Market Concern for Intervention

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - miss on payrolls trims Fed bets, pulls dollar back

July 2, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Payrolls misses, especially with revisions and, even with unemployment dip, gives the Fed more space to stay on hold
Takes some wind out of the dollar's sail, and makes USD/JPY exit look well timed

USD/JPY flows: Spoofy action to become occupational hazard

July 2, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Specific trigger for quick USD/JPY dip unclear as yet
But burst of short yen covering had been expected prior to US holiday
And spoofing is likely to become increasingly common - both MoF and market generated

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: Cross consolidates break lower; dollar waits for payrolls

July 2, 2026 6:46 AM UTC

Waiting game ahead of payrolls holiday, some wariness over MoF
Dollar also checked since Warsh's comments
EUR/GBP the main interest in recent hours with the range breakdown

USD/JPY flows: Silent Intervention Soon?

July 2, 2026 4:11 AM UTC

Reuter cited sources that Japanese officials are moving away from telegraphing intervention risk and toward unsignalled action designed to squeeze speculative yen short positions

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: ISM another slight miss, back to as-you-were

July 1, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

ISM another small miss, EUR/USD back to 1.14
Mkt eyes payrolls and then closing shop early ahead of 'risky' US holiday?

EUR/USD flows: Slight miss on ADP shrugged off as within noise tolerance

July 1, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

ADP slight downside given the benefit of the doubt
EUR/USD still a bit heavy, market's ECB follow up expectations ebb out

EUR/USD flows: HICP, build up to payrolls on the agenda

July 1, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

USD/JPY still sneaking out the new highs
Otherwise relatively sidelined, building into payrolls as the next focal point

USD/JPY flows: Refreshing High

July 1, 2026 4:17 AM UTC

USD/JPY refreshes decade high

EUR/USD flows: Bessent's musings on payrolls keeps it firmly on the radar

June 30, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

EUR/USD still glued to 1.14
Bessent 'wouldn't be surprised' by good payrolls

EUR/USD flows: Softer inflation prints; pair keeping tabs on 1.14

June 30, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

German state, Italian and especially French inflation prints come in softer
Bolsters short-end, DE2s near the yield pullback lows
EUR/USD keeps tabs on 1.14 however

USD/JPY flows: Lifted into period end; EUR/USD 1.14 options

June 30, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

New highs for USD/JPY, seeing lift into period-end
1.14 options for EUR/USD may attract 

USD/JPY flows: Jawboning

June 30, 2026 4:19 AM UTC

Japan's FM will respond appropriately to currency moves at any time
Japan May unemployment rate 2.5%

EUR/USD flows: Still leaning to unwind o/s conditions, better sellers seen above

June 29, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

Fractious w/e gives way to latest stand down and talks to resume
Mkt still leaning towards unwinding overbought dollar but limit seen to correction
Inflation data, period end, Lagarde later; payrolls on the radar

USD/JPY flows: Hovering at recent high

June 29, 2026 4:13 AM UTC

USD/JPY staying around recent high

EUR/USD flows: Consolidating into w/e, risk heavy but choppy

June 26, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

Still somewhat slower heading into the weekend, though the heavier corrective risk tone is still prevailing – Nasdaq future off 1% to be inching a low for the week. It still needs to go some way further to be actually breaking down from an 8-week top if that’s how this choppier action if recent

USD/JPY flows: Tokyo CPI Capped by 2%

June 26, 2026 2:11 AM UTC

Tokyo ex fresh food & energy CPI 1.9% y/y

EUR/USD flows: Consolidation; mulling Bessent and the shape of the Fed curve

June 25, 2026 6:57 AM UTC

Oil fills gap, chip earnings strong
Dollar takes a breather consolidates recent action
Debate over Bessent's comments and what that might say for Fed policy

USD/JPY flows: Staying at Recent High

June 25, 2026 5:23 AM UTC

Iran's IRGC warns ships face action for using Hormuz routes not cleared with Tehran
BoJ Hawk Tamura says neutral rate around 2% 

EUR/USD flows: Yields coming off; follow through taken back

June 24, 2026 2:22 PM UTC

Yields falling off though seen quite symmetrically so far
EUR/USD takes an o/s breather, going back to the 1.1350 break

EUR/USD flows: 38% back; IFO just as expected

June 24, 2026 8:14 AM UTC

Sitting around the next key reference area, can push lower later

EUR/USD flows: Weak German PMI keeps support pressured

June 23, 2026 7:48 AM UTC

Weak German PMI overshadows less negative France print
Keeps EUR/USD pressuring nearby support, with scope for lower

USD, AUD/USD flows: Dollar/risk still on a firm n/t footing

June 23, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

Dollar/risk still breaking firmer near-term amid some position adjustments, chart breaks, and market Fed re-pricing

USD/CAD flows: Bit o/b but CAD still on back foot

June 22, 2026 12:56 PM UTC

CPI data broadly on market
CAD remains on the backfoot, USD/CAD seen higher, though overbought

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: W/e worries stemmed on progress, dollar remains firm

June 22, 2026 6:38 AM UTC

Reported progress in high level talks helps stem w/e escalation worries
Dollar retains its firmer lean since break higher

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: Dollar still supported, Japan policy options still in focus

June 19, 2026 7:13 AM UTC

Hawkish Japan comments at major yen lows, rates and intervention in frame
Hiccups on Iran talks uncomfortable though not unexpected
Burnham wins, data underscores fiscal realities

USD/JPY flows: Jawboning

June 19, 2026 1:13 AM UTC

Japan FM says prepared to take decisive action on speculative FX moves
Japan May headline inflation 1.5% y/y