EUR/USD flows - National CPI figures coming in high; timing still a near-term focus

September 30, 2026 9:15 AM UTC

EZ national CPI prints coming in high; keeps mkt juggling odds, mindful of Lagarde's 'measured' guidance
Fed side of the equation also in balance after Williams less urgent - key data ahead

USD/JPY, AUD/NZD, GBP/USD flows - Period end, CPI data a main focal point

September 30, 2026 7:16 AM UTC

USD/JPY dips in Asia on period end JPY demand
AUD extends pullback through RBA, as CPI data comes in below mkt
UK GDP revised up, GBP still trying to level
Focus on EZ national CPI prints, early headlines on the upside

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Trump doesn't get the memo, oil and yields off lows

September 22, 2026 4:24 PM UTC

Oil backs off early optimism after usual threat laden Trump speech
Yields and dollar also back higher on the day

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Trump talks to set the tone, along with central bank speakers

September 22, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

Flurry of Trump meetings to set the tone, focus on Middle East talks
Brent holds above $100 support into those
NZD manages a bounce after steep drop out of RBNZ comments
Various CB speakers from ECB and Fed today

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: long end rallies out of APF announcement

September 17, 2026 11:53 AM UTC

APF announcement sees a pause as it discusses shift to purchases to the government via the DMO
Thereafter, average sales seen around £46bn, with a freeze on sales outside of (partially) 2049

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: MPC 'passes'; still back of the tightening pack

September 17, 2026 11:23 AM UTC

BoE leaves rates unchanged with unchanged vote.
November IR month remains the real test as the Bank takes stock of length of supply shock and so risk balance
Mkt already running ahead of the MPC though in terms of pricing, BoE remains back of the major CB pack

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: back-to-back or election pause could be key $ factor

September 17, 2026 9:46 AM UTC

After Fed hike, whether it goes back-to-back or waits for Dec could be a key factor for the $ near-term
History has tended to favour the follow up moves, but election is the big elephant in the room this time
Oct is heavily loaded symbolically, both in terms of how mkt would price (majority Fed dots o

USD/JPY, GBP/USD flows: Supply, expiries cap USD/JPY back; focus turns to BoE MPC

September 17, 2026 7:07 AM UTC

Consolidation of the post Fed move overall
USD/JPY weighed back from 156+ by supply and approaching large expiry at 155, ahead of key BoJ meeting
Focus today on the BoE, seen unchanged but judging the vote and the tone. Seen slowing QT

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Key highlights from Fed SEP pivot, stepping $ higher

September 16, 2026 7:16 PM UTC

Key highlights from the FOMC Sep, as Fed funds projections lifted higher
Market expectations for this year validated with upside skew, 2027 slightly below though largest number see the extra hike delivered, narrowing the gap
EUR/USD breaks down to around 1.1475~, 61.8% retracement, with 1.1420 below
US

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Fed shifts gears, sees quick, short dash to get back up to the curve on inflation

September 16, 2026 6:22 PM UTC

Clear shift in emphasis to catching up to the curve on elevated inflation
Dots suggest the Fed is minded to catch up with a quick string of corrective tightenings this year before hoping to plateau at less accommodative FF
Speed of adjustment bolsters dollar, despite less hawkish long projections than

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: mind the gap - dots have a large one to bridge...

September 16, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

Looking back at the June SEP, dots shows what a large gap has developed to current mkt pricing
Uncertain, mixed FOMC may struggle to validate that leap and leave quite a large divergence behind
Interesting to judge markets' reaction to disagreement. 
MMKT and bonds have got oversold in recent accelera

GBP/USD, EUR/USD flows: Sidelined into big Fed meeting; no surprises from UK CPI

September 16, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

FX holds flat into the big FOMC meeting, focused on the dots and the tone
UK CPI as expected, likely leaves BoE in divided pause this week

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF flows: Core CPI upside bolster Sep hike odds

September 11, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Core CPI upside supports Sep FOMC tightening call, and mkt odds rise to around 85% 
FX reaction modest thus far, though CHF remains on the back foot as the increasing low inflation, low rates stand out

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - Yields and US CPI in focus; UK GDP upside keeps cross cap holding

September 11, 2026 6:53 AM UTC

US CPI and bond yields in focus
UK GDP upside helps cap EUR/GBP, keep GBP shorts at bay while holds

EUR/USD flows: Minor dip out of announcement, but projections nudged up

September 10, 2026 12:30 PM UTC

Minor intraday sell fact on announcement but even with boilerplate language inflation projection nudged up
Inflation risks to upside, growth risks to the downside

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: ECB, US PPI, then CPI; mkt wary of hawkish risks from both sides

September 10, 2026 6:56 AM UTC

ECB meeting, then PPI followed by CPI from the US
Mkt wary of 'hawkish' surprises from both sides, could see some chop
For the ECB, main interest will be whether recent US-Iran developments and energy complex pressure hardens the neutral tone

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Buyback announcement provides some $ interest

September 9, 2026 11:59 AM UTC

Some focus on buyback size later, ahead of week's key events

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Main themes continue prior to end of week event risks

September 9, 2026 8:07 AM UTC

USD/JPY continues to see supply, dragging the dollar, even as oil elevated
ECB, US inflation the approaching headline event risks

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: BoE TSC testimony still favouring pause

September 8, 2026 2:25 PM UTC

BoE testimony to TSC very much as expected, overall and by individual 
Majority BoE MPC central view remains that tightening from higher mortgage rates, lack of 2nd round impact, soft labour market, all support wait and see, even if inflation risks remain to upside

AUD/NZD flows - RBA talking quite hawkish, cross extending major rally

September 8, 2026 10:23 AM UTC

RBA speaker quite hawkish on inflation, supporting hike expectations
Cross extends the major rally, chipping away towards major projection big picture

USD/JPY, DXY flows: Continues fast run, eying carry trim vs rotation

September 8, 2026 6:49 AM UTC

Yen continues run back to 152/3 lows
Eying carry trims vs carry rotation
Risk otherwise holding up, even with US-Iran escalations

USD/JPY flows: Very Strong Wage Growth

September 8, 2026 2:26 AM UTC

Labor Cash Earning 4.7% y/y

USD/JPY, DXY flows: Running on after taking out support

September 7, 2026 8:47 AM UTC

USD/JPY taking out the key support from last week 

USD/JPY flows: Hovering at Lows

September 7, 2026 5:12 AM UTC

USD/JPY Stay Near 156

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Trump making sure Sep FOMC is political minefield

September 4, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

Trump renews the political pressure on the Fed
Makes for an even more 'interesting' debate at the next FOMC

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Good upside on payrolls, though earnings steady. CPI more critical

September 4, 2026 12:41 PM UTC

Good upside on the payrolls data, at least outside of earnings, suggests momentum stays solid
Fed will probably stick to view that labor market healthy, firm and generally balanced, especially with earnings not accelerating
That leaves inflation data as the key policy data factor

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Breather into payrolls and then key CPI next week

September 4, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

USD/JPY reset levels off 155 for now though pressure remains
EUR/USD still not far from 1.16 pivot that has held a week of dollar spillover
Payrolls focal point and then attention turns to the key US CPI next week

USD/JPY flows: Partial Recovery

September 4, 2026 5:01 AM UTC

USD/JPY recovering partially

USD/JPY flows: Light work of running for 155

September 3, 2026 1:35 PM UTC

USD/JPY makes light work of dash for 155, with 152 next big level down

USD/JPY flows: Front Running the "Leaks"

September 3, 2026 4:13 AM UTC

JPY Gain Strongly

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: As you were out of ADP, mkt still digesting backdrop

September 2, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

ADP broaldy within expectations, offers no new lean into payrolls
Minor adjustments on non-yielding (CHF) and risk sides
But otherwise contained trade, digesting how bond-risk-FX plays out near-term

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Focus still on bond-risk-FX interplay

September 2, 2026 7:18 AM UTC

Focal point still on rising yields and the interplay with risk, and then to FX
USD/JPY finds supply and some rotation to CHF; maybe signs of tightening and renewed risk support

EUR/USD flows: HICP up, ECB ready, details nuanced. Blog says 'its all energy' so be measured

September 1, 2026 9:30 AM UTC

HICP as expected, leaves ECB follow up in Sep 100% priced in
Details show all overshoot currently all in energy/processed food
An ECB Blog today (note to the hawks?), gives structural analysis that all energy supply side driven, unlike pandemic, and so requires measured response

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY flows: Yields at the highs; BoE (and GBP?) the laggard?

September 1, 2026 6:55 AM UTC

Distillates remain pressured following the fresh Strait exchanges
Yields at the highs, JGBs at 30yr highs, on the ongoing fiscal, monetary, inflation and premia mix
BoJ, ECB and Fed all odds-on to hike in Sep, BoE the standout - could leave GBP the laggard near-term