EUR/USD-Commentary

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June 11, 2026

USD flows: Trumped, but largely ignored
Paying Article

June 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

Latest Trump broadside overshadows ECB; diminishing returns in FX

EUR/USD flows: No big surprises from ECB, bit of sell the fact
Paying Article

June 11, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

ECB initial announcement largely as expected, 
Initial bias is minor sell the fact, 1.15~ next down on intraday chart

USD flows: Iran state of play down to cash is king?
Paying Article

June 11, 2026 10:18 AM UTC

Reuters sources suggest talks continue, political agreement but all down to frozen funds
In some ways good, though there are strong reasons why this is the main last and critical sticking point

EUR/USD flows: Mkt glass half full; ECB in focus with high bar
Paying Article

June 11, 2026 6:33 AM UTC

Oil off the lows, mkt if anything relieved that didn't escalate even more
Stocks still managing to hold the lows at present 
ECB in focus, a lot already priced in to validate

June 10, 2026

EUR/USD, DXY flows: Some relief that CPI avoids upside shocks
Paying Article

June 10, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

'Relief' as core inflation avoids upside surprise and acceleration

USD flows: Latest tweet, modest reaction with so much noise
Paying Article

June 10, 2026 11:30 AM UTC

Moderate reaction to latest tweet, too much noise and reaction exhaustion
Hardly helpful and adds uncertainty, even if reports suggest the more detailed background work has made headway

USD flows: Noise picking up, still risks of fresh volatility spikes
Paying Article

June 10, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

Market proving phlegmatic but session to session noise is picking up
Oil digests the latest exchanges, equity bars getting longer though off yesterday's spikes
US CPI one of the next key event risk alongside Iran news flow

June 09, 2026

USD flows: Oil off, but so is tech
Paying Article

June 9, 2026 4:40 PM UTC

Tech markets looking to extend the pullback even as oil extends the pullback 

USD flows: Corrective but wary ahead of bigger event risk
Paying Article

June 9, 2026 1:02 PM UTC

Tiptoeing towards reluctant correction of sharp Fri action, but wary into bigger event risk
Still some room to give without cancelling skew

USD flows: Asia risk recovers, but USD not cancelled yet
Paying Article

June 9, 2026 6:32 AM UTC

Kospi manages a strong bounce, S&P future not as convincing yet
USD leaks out but hasn't cancelled breakouts yet

June 08, 2026

USD flows: Latest truce, but dollar dips to be bought?
Paying Article

June 8, 2026 12:39 PM UTC

Some mkt comfort in Trump still driving de-escalation 
Both sides of dollar smile still active though and better buyers of dips

USD flows: Tech, yields, and Iran remain in focus
Paying Article

June 8, 2026 6:36 AM UTC

More Israel strikes despite Trump's warning
Kospi off steeply, Nasdaq future flat
Dollar steadies after break higher, remains well supported

June 05, 2026

EUR/USD, AUD/USD flows: Toying with breaks
Paying Article

June 5, 2026 1:46 PM UTC

Pairs toying with some big figure range floor breaks again, as week comes to a close
Iran always the wild card, but may have better chance of sticking this time

EUR/USD, USD/CAD flows: Strong payrolls data, with revisions
Paying Article

June 5, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

Strong report, especially with revisions, further lifts mkt's end-year Fed bets
Gives dollar a boost and something to think about

EUR/USD flows: Lots to ponder into payrolls
Paying Article

June 5, 2026 11:13 AM UTC

Payrolls up next; recent data trend positive though May payrolls performance less so 
Comes at a time when policy uncertainty is very high over all the big questions

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Risk pullback, adds to the Iran and payrolls focus
Paying Article

June 5, 2026 6:35 AM UTC

Some pullback seen in tech, to be seen if its a correction or one-day-dip
Outside Iran, payrolls the main focus of the day

June 04, 2026

USD flows: Sketchy, but oil and dollar backing off
Paying Article

June 4, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Mixed US labor market background data
Oil and USD trying to get a bit more positive on Iran de-risking and deal, but all very fragile

GBP/USD, EUR/USD flows: 6yr low in UK construction PMI; expiries
Paying Article

June 4, 2026 8:50 AM UTC

Weakness in UK construction PMI notable
Expiries otherwise reinforcing apathy

June 03, 2026

USD flows: No surprise from ADP
Paying Article

June 3, 2026 12:26 PM UTC

ADP leaves payrolls expectations intact
Still low volatility that belies the underlying market tension

USD flows: Disquiet as fractious standoff continues
Paying Article

June 3, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

Oil creeping back higher as flare ups continue and talks remain apparently stalled
Dollar back to a slight bid albeit still within recent frozen uncertain ranges

June 02, 2026

USD, SEK, NZD flows: Some relief at partial ceasefire; Iran yet to review
Paying Article

June 2, 2026 6:37 AM UTC

Pullbacks on yesterday's sharp moves after Trump does intervene 
Story remains the only focal point at present

June 01, 2026

USD flows: ISM robust, with the grain but dollar focus elsewhere
Paying Article

June 1, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

Strong ISM reinforces US resilience story, but focus on Iran news

USD, SEK, NZD flows: Further oil bounce on Lebanon obstacles
Paying Article

June 1, 2026 1:42 PM UTC

Israel remains a major obstacle to n/t resolution; oil and USD bounce

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Data leaves consolidation in place
Paying Article

June 1, 2026 8:22 AM UTC

Data leaves current consolidation in place

EUR/USD flows: Holding pattern
Paying Article

June 1, 2026 6:36 AM UTC

Still a holding pattern after failure to move forward yet, ongoing tensions

May 29, 2026

EUR/USD flows: Final decision?
Paying Article

May 29, 2026 3:34 PM UTC

Positive noises as Trump making 'final determination' on MoU

EUR/USD flows: US deficit narrows; focus elsewhere
Paying Article

May 29, 2026 12:57 PM UTC

US deficit unexpectedly narrows but focus elsewhere
MoU with can kick on nuclear details logical outcome, but unpredictable decision

EUR/USD flows: Bunds sit around range highs after more downside CPI surprises
Paying Article

May 29, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

Bunds lifted by soft German state CPI data so far. Unemployment data better than expected
Interesting blog on implications of geopolitical scarring on inflation expectations

EUR/USD flows: Current EZ macro picture on show so far
Paying Article

May 29, 2026 7:08 AM UTC

Inflation data up as expected, French GDP revised to negative. Focus largely elsewhere

EUR/USD, AUD/NZD flows: Waiting on MoU outcome; national CPI up next
Paying Article

May 29, 2026 6:38 AM UTC

Still in waiting mode for MoU outcome
AUD/NZD remains the signature move of the week
Focus this morning turns to national CPI data

May 28, 2026

USD flows: Axios claims MoU deal, but subject to signoff
Paying Article

May 28, 2026 2:29 PM UTC

Axios claims deal on 60-day MoU, though needs Trump sign-off

USD flows: US data dump leaves dollar stalled
Paying Article

May 28, 2026 12:55 PM UTC

Overall, downside surprises out of the latest batch of data, further neutralises the minor o/n dollar bid
US2s pegged back though still more focused on Iran/oil

USD flows: Ruling reminds of midterm election risk after the summer
Paying Article

May 28, 2026 11:12 AM UTC

Judge ruling a small reminder of disruption risks into midterms
Historic tendency for drawdowns may be a blunt tool given unique current dynamics
But it still reminds that this could be a disruption for equities, and the dollar one way or another

USD flows: Strains still on show
Paying Article

May 28, 2026 6:28 AM UTC

Familiar story overnight with skirmishes that add to the sense of fragile talks
Oil and USD  modestly up, but market retains its waiting brief unless talks break down

May 27, 2026

USD flows: Noise but no change in tune
Paying Article

May 27, 2026 3:54 PM UTC

More newswire noise, but no change in the overall story 

USD, EUR/CAD,NOK/SEK,AUD/NZD flows: Oil slips back further on initial draft of a provisional...
Paying Article

May 27, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

Oil continues to pull back on further 'initial draft MoU' headline
Tending to play to the o/n move towards corrective ToT cross trades
USD off a little, but recent positioning more balanced

AUD/NZD, EUR/USD: Pre-event squaring out of RBNZ; elsewhere still low vol despite backdrop
Paying Article

May 27, 2026 6:49 AM UTC

AUD/NZD reversing run out of last 2 sessions, though RBNZ was only catching up towards mkt pricing
Elsewhere, mkt continues to wait and hope on Iran, expiries could add to the lethargy
BoJ comments may back a hike, but month-end and backdrop dominate

May 26, 2026

EUR flows: EUR marginally firmer after hawkish Schnabel, but..
Paying Article

May 26, 2026 8:24 AM UTC

Schnabel calls for June rate hike, EUR modestly firmer, but upside limited

EUR/USD, CAD, GBP flows: tense few days ahead; Breentry and Albertout getting media attention
Paying Article

May 26, 2026 6:09 AM UTC

Deal could take some days, skirmishes o/n keep things tense
Less immediately, some background media focus on Breentry and Albertout

May 22, 2026

EUR flows: Steady after IFO and INSEE surveys
Paying Article

May 22, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

IFO and INSEE both slightly stronger thna expected, but underlying picture in Europe still weak

GBP flows: GBP marginally softer after UK data
Paying Article

May 22, 2026 6:24 AM UTC

UK retail sales soft and borrowing higher but GBP only slightly softer. But medium term risks on the downside

May 21, 2026

USD flows: USD to stay firm after solid PMI
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 2:10 PM UTC

US S&P PMI solid suggesting upside risks vs Europe

USD flows: USD firm as yields rise
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

USD firmer as yields rise and equities fall despite neutral data

EUR/USD flows: Philly Fed stalls, claims steady, no change in mkt focus
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 12:51 PM UTC

Mixed Philly Fed detail, but claims still stable and focus elsewhere 

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: Uranium standoff rumbles on
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 10:48 AM UTC

Market prisoner to the headlines intraday
Latest has Iran pushback on enriched uranium. Hard line on both sides leaves deal unresolved. 

GBP, EUR flows: UK PMI Matches 2023 and 2025 low
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 8:38 AM UTC

EUR and GBP both holding up remarkably well despite very weak PMIs, but risks remain on the downside

EUR flows: Eurozone PMI lowest since November 2023
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 8:07 AM UTC

EUR vulnerable after weak PMI

EUR flows: Weak French PMI pulling EUR lower
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 7:53 AM UTC

EUR dipping after very weak French PMI

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: USD still firm, PMIs in focus
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 6:35 AM UTC

USD remains well supported, AUD softer, EUR may be vulnerable on PMIs

May 20, 2026

USD flows: Draft agreement talk forces mkt to hedge
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 3:48 PM UTC

Al Arabiya News claim sees mkt forced to hedge
Many false dawns of course, but clearly the dominant focus now for the next few sessions

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