EUR/USD-Commentary

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January 06, 2026

EUR flows: EUR edges lower on softer data
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January 6, 2026 9:12 AM UTC

EUR edges slightly lower after weaker German state CPI and PMI 

EUR, GBP, AUD flows: EUR risks lower as French inflation eases
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January 6, 2026 8:11 AM UTC

EUR edges slightly lower after French CPI, riskier currencies well supported by equity strength

January 05, 2026

USD, GBP flows: USD firmer, GBP risks on the downside
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January 5, 2026 7:42 AM UTC

USD firmer on Venezuela. ISM the main data. GBP firm but risks on the downside.

January 02, 2026

EUR, GBP flows: European manufacturing PMIs revised lower
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January 2, 2026 9:40 AM UTC

Downward revisions in manufacturing PMIs may favour GBP

EUR, USD, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD flows: Early risk positive tone, JPY remains soft
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January 2, 2026 7:51 AM UTC

Likely to be a quiet Friday with holidays extended. Mild risk positive tone with JPY still weak

December 31, 2025

USD, USD/CNY flows: China Only Modest Fiscal Stimulus
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December 31, 2025 3:30 PM UTC

With little news flow, traders did notice China announcement today of Yuan62.5bln for consumer trade in programs, as part of a wider initial Yuan300bln fiscal stimulus package for 2026.  

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Initial Claims Drop, But
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December 31, 2025 1:39 PM UTC

USD helped by lower than expected weekly jobless claims, with the clearest reaction on USD/JPY. 

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Market Expects Slower 2026 USD Decline
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December 31, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

Traders views for 2026 are biased towards further USD losses, but at a smaller scale than 2025.  

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: USD Consolidating in Europe
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December 31, 2025 8:08 AM UTC

European trading is seeing the USD move sideways, with the FOMC minutes having failed to provide direction. 

December 30, 2025

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Dec FOMC Minutes Fail to Provide Direction
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December 30, 2025 7:40 PM UTC

The USD saw little reaction on the December FOMC minutes.

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Trump and Ukraine/Taiwan
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December 30, 2025 12:45 PM UTC

President Donald Trump comments yesterday are attracting some attention.

USD DXY and Gold flows: Gold Temporary Correction or More?
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December 30, 2025 10:40 AM UTC

Gold and Silver made modest gains after the Dec 29 sharp selloff, which traders feel was profit-taking by spec longs. 

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Dec FOMC Minutes in Focus
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December 30, 2025 8:30 AM UTC

USD is trading sideways, with the December FOMC minutes in focus.  

December 23, 2025

EUR/USD flows: EUR Modest Gains for 2026?
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December 23, 2025 7:00 PM UTC

EUR/USD has scope to 1.20 by end 2026. 

USD Index flows: Fed Q1 Pause and AI & Equities
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December 23, 2025 2:21 PM UTC

USD continues to be firm in NY, especially against the JPY.  

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: USD up on Good GDP Data
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December 23, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

Initial reaction has been a higher USD on the better than expected Q3 U.S. GDP data.  

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: Bessent FOMC Changes
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December 23, 2025 11:55 AM UTC

Bessent has suggested some changes to the FOMC.   

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: Focus on the JPY
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December 23, 2025 8:20 AM UTC

European trading is seeing a focus on the JPY.  

December 22, 2025

EUR/USD flows: EUR up in NY
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December 22, 2025 2:20 PM UTC

EUR is moving higher in NY trading against the USD.  

December 18, 2025

USD flows: USD slips on weaker CPI
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December 18, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

Weaker than expected US October/November CPI triggers USD sell off

December 16, 2025

USD flows: Little changed after mixed employment report
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December 16, 2025 1:53 PM UTC

USD little changed after US employment data shows slightly stronger private payroll growth but higher unemployment and weaker average earnings. 

EUR, GBP flows: GBP gaining from better PMI, but...
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December 16, 2025 9:38 AM UTC

GB gains on better PMI with Eurozone weaker, but the UK PMI data is not particularly trustworthy

EUR, JPY flows: EUR softer after weaker German PMI
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December 16, 2025 8:37 AM UTC

EUR slips a little after weaker German PMI, EUR/JPY vulnerable

December 11, 2025

USD flows: USD lower after claims
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December 11, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

USD slips lower after initial claims rise

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD flows: USD slightly lower post-FOMC
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December 11, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

USD slips lower post-FOMC. Scope for modest JPY recovery on crosses

December 08, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, CAD flows: Fairly neutral picture ahead of central bank meetings
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December 8, 2025 8:06 AM UTC

German production data recovers but trend remains weak. USD steady awaiting FOMC

December 05, 2025

USD flows: USD edges up on slighty better UoM survey
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December 5, 2025 3:14 PM UTC

UoM confidence a little stronger than expected in December, but still at very low levels

EUR flows: German orders and French output data EUR supportive, but...
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December 5, 2025 7:57 AM UTC

EUR firm in early trade after better German and French data, but underlying picture suggests downside risks on the crosses

December 04, 2025

USD flows: Initial claims drop to 3 year low
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December 4, 2025 1:44 PM UTC

Low claims USD supportive

USD flows: Challenger data better but trend towards higher job losses
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December 4, 2025 1:05 PM UTC

Challenger job losses lower but trend rising

December 03, 2025

USD flows: USD firms slightly on better ISM services data
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December 3, 2025 3:08 PM UTC

ISM services indices support USD

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: USD lower on weaker ADP
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December 3, 2025 1:29 PM UTC

Decline in ADP employment increases expectatinos of Fed ease, suggests scope for more USD losses, particularly versus AUD and JPY

USD, AUD, EUR flows: USD softer, AUD gains
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December 3, 2025 8:01 AM UTC

USD generally lower, AUD strong as market prices in next RBA move as being a hike with Q3 Australian GDP stronger than the q/q headline data suggests. 

December 02, 2025

USD, JPY, AUD, EUR flows: JPY reverses Monday's gains, USD generally firmer
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December 2, 2025 7:53 AM UTC

JPY reverses Monday's gains, AUD the best of the riskier currencies

November 28, 2025

EUR, AUD, JPY flows: Quiet markets but EUR may be vulnerable on the crosses
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November 28, 2025 7:30 AM UTC

German retail sales a touch softer, some downside risks for the EUR on the crosses

November 26, 2025

USD, AUD, NZD, JPY, GBP flows: Risk positive moves overnight, JPY weak, GBP a focus today
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November 26, 2025 8:22 AM UTC

NZD and AUD gain on RBNZ, higher Australian CPI and risk positive market tone. JPY weakness on the crosses looks overdone. GBP in focus ahead of UK Budget

November 25, 2025

USD flows: Post-data dip short-lived
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November 25, 2025 1:40 PM UTC

US September PPI and retail sales on the soft side, but impact very limited

November 24, 2025

USD, EUR, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: Mild risk positive tone on Fed, Ukraine
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November 24, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

JPY and CHF weaker, EUR firmer. More risk positive tone on Ukraine peace and Fed easing hopes. AUD upside potential

November 21, 2025

EUR, GBP flows: GBP under pressure after weaker PMIs
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November 21, 2025 10:08 AM UTC

GBP under pressure after weaker PMIs

November 20, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly softer after mixed employment report
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November 20, 2025 1:43 PM UTC

Employment report mixed despite stronger than expected rise in payrolls. Mild USD negative reaction seems unlikely to persist

November 07, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: USD lower after weak U Mich sentiment
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November 7, 2025 3:18 PM UTC

USD lower against European currencies post-Michigan senitment. JPY can play catch-up.

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Steadier picture overnight
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November 7, 2025 7:39 AM UTC

Stabilisation overnight after initial equity dip suggests mild corrective activity near term

November 06, 2025

EUR, SEK flows: SEK firm after higher CPI, German production disappoints
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November 6, 2025 7:47 AM UTC

EUR/SEK dips after higher than expected Swedish CPI and weak German production data

November 05, 2025

USD, JPY flows: USD gains on strong ISM services
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November 5, 2025 3:18 PM UTC

ISM services gain strongly, JPY threatening recent lows

USD flows: USD slightly firmer after ADP
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November 5, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

German orders marginally firmer but trend softening. JPY reverses initial gains in Asia as equities bounce. GBP a focus as EUR/GBP makes new 2 year high

GBP, JPY, EUR flows: Little net change as equities bounce - GBP a focus
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November 5, 2025 7:54 AM UTC

German orders marginally firmer but trend softening. JPY reverses initial gains in Asia as equities bounce. GBP a focus as EUR/GBP makes new 2 year high

November 04, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR flows: JPY gains as equities correct lower
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November 4, 2025 7:51 AM UTC

Equity dip triggers JPY gains, AUD losses

November 03, 2025

EUR flows: EUR generally softer as 1.1540 resistance level holds
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November 3, 2025 9:16 AM UTC

EUR/USD extends modest downtrend

October 31, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD firm, JPY intervention risk increases
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October 31, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

USD firm helped by positive equity response to tech results. JPY gets brief support from Katayama comments. Little independent EUR movement after as expected German sales data

October 30, 2025

EUR flows: Mild recovery after ECB
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October 30, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

ECB statement slightly more upbeat after leaving rates unchanged but little EUR reaction