EUR/USD-Commentary

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November 21, 2025

EUR, GBP flows: GBP under pressure after weaker PMIs
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November 21, 2025 10:08 AM UTC

GBP under pressure after weaker PMIs

November 20, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly softer after mixed employment report
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November 20, 2025 1:43 PM UTC

Employment report mixed despite stronger than expected rise in payrolls. Mild USD negative reaction seems unlikely to persist

November 07, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: USD lower after weak U Mich sentiment
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November 7, 2025 3:18 PM UTC

USD lower against European currencies post-Michigan senitment. JPY can play catch-up.

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Steadier picture overnight
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November 7, 2025 7:39 AM UTC

Stabilisation overnight after initial equity dip suggests mild corrective activity near term

November 06, 2025

EUR, SEK flows: SEK firm after higher CPI, German production disappoints
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November 6, 2025 7:47 AM UTC

EUR/SEK dips after higher than expected Swedish CPI and weak German production data

November 05, 2025

USD, JPY flows: USD gains on strong ISM services
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November 5, 2025 3:18 PM UTC

ISM services gain strongly, JPY threatening recent lows

USD flows: USD slightly firmer after ADP
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November 5, 2025 1:35 PM UTC

German orders marginally firmer but trend softening. JPY reverses initial gains in Asia as equities bounce. GBP a focus as EUR/GBP makes new 2 year high

GBP, JPY, EUR flows: Little net change as equities bounce - GBP a focus
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November 5, 2025 7:54 AM UTC

German orders marginally firmer but trend softening. JPY reverses initial gains in Asia as equities bounce. GBP a focus as EUR/GBP makes new 2 year high

November 04, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR flows: JPY gains as equities correct lower
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November 4, 2025 7:51 AM UTC

Equity dip triggers JPY gains, AUD losses

November 03, 2025

EUR flows: EUR generally softer as 1.1540 resistance level holds
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November 3, 2025 9:16 AM UTC

EUR/USD extends modest downtrend

October 31, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD firm, JPY intervention risk increases
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October 31, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

USD firm helped by positive equity response to tech results. JPY gets brief support from Katayama comments. Little independent EUR movement after as expected German sales data

October 30, 2025

EUR flows: Mild recovery after ECB
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October 30, 2025 2:17 PM UTC

ECB statement slightly more upbeat after leaving rates unchanged but little EUR reaction

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Data mildly EUR positive
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October 30, 2025 9:41 AM UTC

European data helping the EUR hold its own against a stronger USD

USD, EUR, JPY flows: USD firm, JPY weak after Fed, BoJ decisions
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October 30, 2025 8:03 AM UTC

USD gains on less dovish Fed. JPY weak as Ueda still in no hurry. French data suggests EUR to get support from GDP

October 27, 2025

EUR flows: EUR little changed after IFO, M3
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October 27, 2025 9:13 AM UTC

IFO and M3 too close to consensus to move EUR

AUD, JPY, CHF flows: Risk positive tone, some JPY resilience
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October 27, 2025 7:43 AM UTC

Risk positive tone on talk of US/China deal, JPY gets some support from verbal intervention

October 24, 2025

USD flows: USD recovered after PMIs
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October 24, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

USD recovered post-CPI losses helped by strong PMI

USD flows: USD lower on CPI
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October 24, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

USD generally lower, AUD outperforming

EUR, GBP flows: GBP recovers slightly after UK PMI
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October 24, 2025 8:42 AM UTC

EUR/GBP slips back after UK PMI following gains after stronger Eurozone data

EUR flows: EUR boosted by stronger German services PMI, but...
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October 24, 2025 7:43 AM UTC

EUR firmer after stronger German services PMI, but intra-European divergence not EUR supportive

October 23, 2025

EUR flows: EUR edges up after better French data
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October 23, 2025 7:26 AM UTC

French INSEE survey shows manufacturing improvement, but services still weak

October 20, 2025

USD, JPY flows: Steady to mild risk positive tone
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October 20, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

Mildly more risk positive picture, but uncertainty remains. Likely Takaichi PM appointment offset by some BoJ hawkishness

October 17, 2025

USD, JPY, CHF flows: USD lower versus safe havens on risk negative trade
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October 17, 2025 7:01 AM UTC

US banking concerns trigger USD declines, especially against safe havens. JPY has scope for further gains.

October 16, 2025

GBP, USD flows: Little impact from UK GDP, USD steady
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October 16, 2025 6:56 AM UTC

GBP marginally softer after August GDP comes in as expected. USD stable

October 14, 2025

USD flows: Little impact from NFIB, but...
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October 14, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

NFIB survey weaker, but price index higher

October 08, 2025

JPY, NZD, EUR, SEK flows: JPY and NZD down sharply, EUR resilient
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October 8, 2025 7:07 AM UTC

JPY extends weakness on weak wage data, NZD drops sharply on 50 bp RBNZ cut. EUR resilient despite likely erratically weak German production data 

October 07, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: EUR downside favoured after weak German orders, JPY weakness overdone
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October 7, 2025 6:57 AM UTC

EUR to stay soft as German orders add to evidence of slowdown. JPY weakness lacks rationale

October 06, 2025

USD, EUR flows: EUR down on French PM resignation
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October 6, 2025 8:41 AM UTC

EUR down across the board as French PM resigns after less than a month in office

October 03, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR flows: EUR up JPY down after objectively soft ISM data
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October 3, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

EUR/JPY gains on ISM look to be more to do with end of week than the data itself. 

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: JPY weaker, scope for some recovery in riskier currencies
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October 3, 2025 6:56 AM UTC

JPY weaker on Ueda comments, unemployment rise. Equities continue to gain

October 02, 2025

USD, JPY, CHF flows: Steady markets, JPY still has upside scope, CHF topping out
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October 2, 2025 6:49 AM UTC

USD steady overnight, equities making new highs (again) but JPY favoured going forward. CHF looking toppy.

October 01, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD falls on weak ADP employment data
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October 1, 2025 12:31 PM UTC

USD softer across the board but JPY favoured going forward

September 29, 2025

USD, GBP flows: USD edging lower on shutdown concerns, GBP firmer
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September 29, 2025 6:31 AM UTC

USD softer as government shutdown looms. GBP edging up

September 26, 2025

USD, CHF, CAD flows: USD edging lower, CHF vulnerable, CAD to benefit
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September 26, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

New Trump tariffs may impact EUR and CHF. CAD firmer after GDP

USD, EUR, CHF, JPY flows: More tariffs may impact EUR and CHF
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September 26, 2025 6:48 AM UTC

New Trump tariffs may impact EUR and CHF. JPY still weak

September 25, 2025

USD flows: USD up on upward revision to Q2 GDP
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September 25, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

USD firmer on upward revision to GDP, particularly against the JPY

September 23, 2025

USD flows: US PMI has little impact
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September 23, 2025 1:49 PM UTC

US S&P PMI marginally weaker than expected, but no market impact

GBP, EUR flows: Weaker UK PMI triggers GBP decline
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September 23, 2025 8:49 AM UTC

UK PMI dips, triggering GBP losses, but data is unreliable. Year's high in EUR/GBP at 0.8763 should hold

EUR flows: German services strength supports EUR
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September 23, 2025 7:15 AM UTC

The stronger German services PMI offset weakness elsewhere

September 22, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Neutral picture, risk premia remain very low
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September 22, 2025 6:50 AM UTC

USD steady, Japanese equities firmer, FX becalmed ahead of PMIs

September 18, 2025

USD flows: US data USD supportive
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September 18, 2025 12:47 PM UTC

Decline in jobless claims and stronger Philadelhia Fed survey USD supportive.

USD, EUR, JPY, NOK flows: USD firmer after Fed, JPY soft, NOK could slip on Norges Bank
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September 18, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

USD firmer after Fed despite larger than expected 2025 rate cuts in the dots. JPY continues to underperform. NOK can slip on Norges Bank

September 17, 2025

GBP flows: GBP little changed after marginally softer than expected CPI
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September 17, 2025 6:30 AM UTC

UK CPI marginally softer than expected as air fares reverse July gains. GBP little changed but EUR/GBP close to the top of the range

September 16, 2025

USD, CAD flows: USD slightly firmer, CAD little changed after data
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September 16, 2025 12:54 PM UTC

US retail sales on the strong side, halting the USD's slide. Canadian CPI in line on the core

GBP, USD flows: GBP little changed after UK data
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September 16, 2025 6:37 AM UTC

GBP unchanged after UK labour market data in line with consensus

September 15, 2025

USD, AUD, NOK, JPY flows: Equity strength supports riskier currencies, but...
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September 15, 2025 6:51 AM UTC

Equity gains have helped AUD and NOK rise, but rising risk premia suggest JPY can catch up.

September 10, 2025

USD, AUD flows: USD slightly softer after much lower than expected PPI
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September 10, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

USD modestly lower as PPI declines in August, new highs for S&P futures

USD, NOK, SEK, JPY flows: Quiet markets ahead of US price data
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September 10, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

FX markets briadly steady but JPY and NOK remain undervalued

September 09, 2025

USD, JPY flows: USD reverses initial dip on payroll revision
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September 9, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

US benchmark payroll revised down m ore than expected, but little implication for current trend

September 05, 2025

USD, CAD, JPY flows: US employment weak, Canadian weaker
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September 5, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

USD lower after weaker employment data, Canadian data much weaker still