EUR/USD, USD/JPY - miss on payrolls trims Fed bets, pulls dollar back

July 2, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Payrolls misses, especially with revisions and, even with unemployment dip, gives the Fed more space to stay on hold
Takes some wind out of the dollar's sail, and makes USD/JPY exit look well timed

USD/JPY flows: Spoofy action to become occupational hazard

July 2, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Specific trigger for quick USD/JPY dip unclear as yet
But burst of short yen covering had been expected prior to US holiday
And spoofing is likely to become increasingly common - both MoF and market generated

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: ISM another slight miss, back to as-you-were

July 1, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

ISM another small miss, EUR/USD back to 1.14
Mkt eyes payrolls and then closing shop early ahead of 'risky' US holiday?

EUR/USD flows: Slight miss on ADP shrugged off as within noise tolerance

July 1, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

ADP slight downside given the benefit of the doubt
EUR/USD still a bit heavy, market's ECB follow up expectations ebb out

EUR/USD flows: Bessent's musings on payrolls keeps it firmly on the radar

June 30, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

EUR/USD still glued to 1.14
Bessent 'wouldn't be surprised' by good payrolls

EUR/USD flows: Softer inflation prints; pair keeping tabs on 1.14

June 30, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

German state, Italian and especially French inflation prints come in softer
Bolsters short-end, DE2s near the yield pullback lows
EUR/USD keeps tabs on 1.14 however

USD flows: Net firm batch of US data, if no knock-outs

June 25, 2026 12:41 PM UTC

Strong batch of data overall, though avoids any 'headline shocks'
Mkt consolidates its recent repositioning

USD flows: OPEC pressure cooker

June 25, 2026 8:14 AM UTC

Reuters sources have Iraq making OPEC threats of quota
Iran closures have exerted critical financial and fiscal stress on the region
That creates a pressure cooker environment for (hopefully) post war supply and cooperation

EUR/USD flows: Yields coming off; follow through taken back

June 24, 2026 2:22 PM UTC

Yields falling off though seen quite symmetrically so far
EUR/USD takes an o/s breather, going back to the 1.1350 break

EUR/USD flows: 38% back; IFO just as expected

June 24, 2026 8:14 AM UTC

Sitting around the next key reference area, can push lower later

USD flows: More focus on equities than data, dollar firm either way

June 23, 2026 2:02 PM UTC

Focus more on session's equity action than data
PMIs firmer all the same, if with some details in the breakdown

USD flows: Still at or through various resistance levels

June 23, 2026 12:56 PM UTC

USD still on the rise vs majors with various resistance levels being tested or cleared

EUR/USD flows: Weak German PMI keeps support pressured

June 23, 2026 7:48 AM UTC

Weak German PMI overshadows less negative France print
Keeps EUR/USD pressuring nearby support, with scope for lower

USD, AUD/USD flows: Dollar/risk still on a firm n/t footing

June 23, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

Dollar/risk still breaking firmer near-term amid some position adjustments, chart breaks, and market Fed re-pricing

USD flows: Lots to digest from the Fed press conference

June 17, 2026 7:09 PM UTC

Taskforces announced, with inflation and balance sheet ones notable
Dots described as pencilled forecasts, and set to be reviewed
Warsh gives mixed view on policy tightness 
Curve pivot flattens but balance sheet review should be watched closely

USD flows: Fed projections nuanced, but bolsters dollar

June 17, 2026 6:27 PM UTC

Dots shift, albeit quite as hawkish in composition as they may seem on first look
Show more a strongly divided Fed, and one than can still hold if data cools 'post Iran'
Nonetheless, median and to a lesser extent the breakdown partly valid the market shift
Dollar firms and continues dalliance with retu

USD flows: Taking stock of current levels vs pre-Iran

June 15, 2026 1:26 PM UTC

 Quick stock check of current pricing vs pre-Iran
Gold still the biggest loser; SEK the highest FX beta
Euro not that far off, low volatility; USD/JPY could correct off 160 handle if stars align

EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, USD flows: $80 and some breaks regained; Swiss avoid risky vote

June 15, 2026 6:47 AM UTC

Oil back to $80 as deal to be signed, albeit with some can kick on details
EUR/USD regains 1.16, Nasdaq back above it's recent break lower
Swiss also avoid event risk, no on population cap, bolsters CHF

USD flows: Market still skeptical

June 11, 2026 6:20 PM UTC

The USD saw a sharp dip on Trump's cancellation of tonight's scheduled bombing of Iran though did little more than erase the day's gains. 

USD flows: Trumped, but largely ignored

June 11, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

Latest Trump broadside overshadows ECB; diminishing returns in FX

EUR/USD flows: No big surprises from ECB, bit of sell the fact

June 11, 2026 12:32 PM UTC

ECB initial announcement largely as expected, 
Initial bias is minor sell the fact, 1.15~ next down on intraday chart

USD flows: Iran state of play down to cash is king?

June 11, 2026 10:18 AM UTC

Reuters sources suggest talks continue, political agreement but all down to frozen funds
In some ways good, though there are strong reasons why this is the main last and critical sticking point

EUR/USD, DXY flows: Some relief that CPI avoids upside shocks

June 10, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

'Relief' as core inflation avoids upside surprise and acceleration

USD flows: Latest tweet, modest reaction with so much noise

June 10, 2026 11:30 AM UTC

Moderate reaction to latest tweet, too much noise and reaction exhaustion
Hardly helpful and adds uncertainty, even if reports suggest the more detailed background work has made headway

USD flows: Oil off, but so is tech

June 9, 2026 4:40 PM UTC

Tech markets looking to extend the pullback even as oil extends the pullback 

USD flows: Corrective but wary ahead of bigger event risk

June 9, 2026 1:02 PM UTC

Tiptoeing towards reluctant correction of sharp Fri action, but wary into bigger event risk
Still some room to give without cancelling skew

USD flows: Latest truce, but dollar dips to be bought?

June 8, 2026 12:39 PM UTC

Some mkt comfort in Trump still driving de-escalation 
Both sides of dollar smile still active though and better buyers of dips

USD flows: Tech, yields, and Iran remain in focus

June 8, 2026 6:36 AM UTC

More Israel strikes despite Trump's warning
Kospi off steeply, Nasdaq future flat
Dollar steadies after break higher, remains well supported

EUR/USD, AUD/USD flows: Toying with breaks

June 5, 2026 1:46 PM UTC

Pairs toying with some big figure range floor breaks again, as week comes to a close
Iran always the wild card, but may have better chance of sticking this time

EUR/USD, USD/CAD flows: Strong payrolls data, with revisions

June 5, 2026 12:50 PM UTC

Strong report, especially with revisions, further lifts mkt's end-year Fed bets
Gives dollar a boost and something to think about