USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: Dollar breaks lower with yields after Treasury backstopping signal

August 19, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

Dollar breaks lower as Treasury increases long end buyback ops
Drives long end yields down, reverses the week's gains, and viewed as backstopping reassurance
Dollar reaction both driven by yields but also the 'bad look'

EUR/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP flows: Risk still retreating, CAD not celebrating yet; data leaves BoE views unchanged

August 19, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

Risk still correcting while bonds level off, and oil still drifting out 
CAD not yet celebrating potential deal, as talks extended 
Sterling unmoved by CPI, BoE odds still at that gradual move to one hike view

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - new long end yield highs jangle nerves

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Push out in long end US yields to refresh post 2007 highs 
May start to jangle nerves as risk mkt emerge from low vol summer-happy mood

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n

August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold 

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - retail miss adds to dollar trimming

August 14, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

Fairly hefty downside miss on retail sales headlines adds another straw this week
May tip $ into more of a pullback having stuck in their long

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD flows - no-vol summer, but for how long; BoJ hike talk continues

August 14, 2026 7:03 AM UTC

Low vol summer, extreme lows may be suggestive of more noise ahead, eventually
Further sources talk of BoJ mulling Sep and faster
UK byelection finishes with Reform winning locally, but losing nationally

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - CPI as expected and likely defers judgements

August 12, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Slight damp squib, very much on consensus. 
A report that probably wont change any opinions greatly. 
Another CPI report (and PCE data) to come before Sep FOMC and that could be more critical

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - still waiting on $-influential CPI

August 12, 2026 6:50 AM UTC

No sign of movement in Iran, mkt otherwise still holding sight into US CPI
Latter has potential to move the mkt, especially with positioning still overall long dollar

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - Oil cycles with the headlines; existing home sales as expected, CPI the focus

August 11, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

Quiet day, oil stays off the highs after Pakistan positive noises but waits on the facts
Otherwise, drifting into the US CPI release

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - quiet day, oil still drifting out

August 11, 2026 6:51 AM UTC

Quiet out of Japan holiday,
Oil drifts out as Iran deal elusive and bogged down in rhetoric

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Payrolls pressures $ longs, even with unemployment rate proviso

August 7, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Downside payrolls surprises with revisions - although note that zero or less is now trend...
Unemployment rate dip one counterpoint, though soft earnings the deciding factor
Focus turns to inflation data, but long $ positioning hit again, USD/JPY retains downside skew

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Waiting on payrolls

August 7, 2026 7:07 AM UTC

Oil mid range for the week, waiting to see if a deal emerges and how viable it is
Otherwise focus on US payrolls. Market has been invited to react and express its opinion

Silver lining: a case for a precious metals retracement

August 5, 2026 11:53 AM UTC

Looking at technicals, seasonals, positioning, recent and upcoming events, there's a case for gold and silver building off a base
Break higher off that base could allow a decent absolute retracement move ahead, even if long-term charts still headwind

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK Flows: Waiting for latest 'deal'; BoJ 'market savvy' on timing?

August 5, 2026 6:47 AM UTC

All eyes on the latest 'deal', US hopeful of today; cedes to much of Iran's wish list
Bessent underscores BoJ expectations; market savvy thing to deal is not dally in Sep

EUR/USD, USD/CHF flows: will data reactions migrate more to CHF

August 3, 2026 3:01 PM UTC

Another robust ISM report
CHF may increasingly become the mkt's preferred way of expressing such data

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: Notable breaks cemented after US blinked on USTs?

August 3, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

USD/JPY makes downward inroads on the charts after confirmed intervention
Brent to new pullback lows on regional initiative to broker deal
Joining dots could be the US blinking as UST yields reached critical highs

USD/JPY Flows - was vulnerable, getting hammered

July 30, 2026 2:16 PM UTC

Big slump looks like opportunistic action, short yen squeeze had been brewing
Nervy mood to extend into BoJ

EUR/USD Flows: Data tending to aggravate the mini squeeze

July 30, 2026 12:47 PM UTC

Data stull nudging EUR/USD into resistance today, 1.15 next on any further mini squeeze

EUR/USD Flows: Firmer EZ GDP, national CPI

July 30, 2026 9:23 AM UTC

Firmer CPI and especially EZ GDP data leaves EUR/USD bolstered, mini squeeze risk above resistance

EUR/USD Flows: UST pivotal steepen post Fed, US30s >5.2%

July 30, 2026 6:57 AM UTC

Market left confused and sceptical by FOMC presser, curve steepens, 30s break levels
Also juggling widening ECB-Fed hike probabilities with fresh Iran strikes

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK Flows: Trump and Korea keep eye on oil, tech, into FOMC

July 29, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

USTs slip on further oil lift as Trump threatens to hit Iran hard again
S.Korea responds to recent turmoil, could keep wider market edgy

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK Flows: Tech and oil still churn; uncertain Fed key focus

July 29, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

Market unusually uncertain into Fed, so plenty of scope to react
USD/JPY seeing (very minor) weight as Nikkei stays dragged into mth-end
Oil breaks correction on latest proxy flare up

USD Flows: Core durables solid, earnings and Fed more in focus

July 27, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

Durables solid on the core despite the headline miss
Focus more on further earnings this week and then especially the Fed
USD proving reluctant to cede ground on defensiveness into the latter

EUR/USD, SEK Flows: Dollar marks lower, eyes negotiations for traction

July 27, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

Equities, oil, dollar all mark to the w/e news, but look next to assess longevity

USD Flows: Semiconductor break more in focus than the data

July 17, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

Semiconductor break today the main interest rather than data
Sets the tone into next week, watching wider volatility performance

USD Flows: Tech risk weaker; eying any late USD/JPY pre-holiday adjustment

July 17, 2026 6:58 AM UTC

Tech stocks under a bit of pressure, not yet spilling into FX
USD/JPY trades tiny bar (doji) into holiday, could still see some squaring yet

USD Flows: Trump backs off fringe demands; safe, normal shipping still the big question

July 14, 2026 3:46 PM UTC

Backs away from more fringe, rhetorical remarks on 20% fee 
Remaining question is still how viable safe and normal volume passage is going to be in current stalemate 

USD Flows: CPI miss takes heat off, but too early to call more than respite

July 14, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Big downside CPI miss takes the heat off but current escalation offers less respite
EUR/USD resets to range upside from downside

USD Flows: blockade and taking a cut; messy situation gets messier

July 13, 2026 2:48 PM UTC

Battle of the grift, as Trump talks blockade and 20% protection fee

USD Flows - mkt unwilling to commit amid broader escalation, hugs familiar figures

July 13, 2026 6:34 AM UTC

Battle becoming more entrenched over Strait control
Mkt unwilling to commit and be whipsawed again though
Minor USD haven skew but sticks to the familiar figures, risks do seem to be growing

EUR/USD Flows - ECB predetermined, Fed open minded? (Fed Williams, ECB Minutes)

July 9, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

ECB Minutes unsurprisingly hawkish given the decision and the presser, but do underscore the rigid view on the mmkt curve
Fed Williams meanwhile nods to upside risks, but mainly highlights 'collective reaction function' and open questions

USD Flows - despite it all, still summer drift, kiwi only thing flying

July 9, 2026 12:55 PM UTC

Ironic summer apathetic drift despite it all, waiting for any clear signals
Kiwi still the only mover, squeezing in the old range

USD Flows - Dangerous rhetoric loop?

July 8, 2026 2:55 PM UTC

Iran threat to close Strait adds to the ramp up
Danger that things get out of control in current rhetoric-action one-upping, even if result makes no sense

EUR/USD Flows - Trump shooting from hip at NATO, Iran MOU 'over' and Spain 'no trade'

July 8, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

Trump firing shots at NATO, aiming at Spain and Iran
MoU 'over' comments can spook oil and squeeze NOK (and CAD)