EUR/USD-Commentary

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May 22, 2026

EUR flows: Steady after IFO and INSEE surveys
Paying Article

May 22, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

IFO and INSEE both slightly stronger thna expected, but underlying picture in Europe still weak

GBP flows: GBP marginally softer after UK data
Paying Article

May 22, 2026 6:24 AM UTC

UK retail sales soft and borrowing higher but GBP only slightly softer. But medium term risks on the downside

May 21, 2026

USD flows: USD to stay firm after solid PMI
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 2:10 PM UTC

US S&P PMI solid suggesting upside risks vs Europe

USD flows: USD firm as yields rise
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

USD firmer as yields rise and equities fall despite neutral data

EUR/USD flows: Philly Fed stalls, claims steady, no change in mkt focus
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 12:51 PM UTC

Mixed Philly Fed detail, but claims still stable and focus elsewhere 

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: Uranium standoff rumbles on
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 10:48 AM UTC

Market prisoner to the headlines intraday
Latest has Iran pushback on enriched uranium. Hard line on both sides leaves deal unresolved. 

GBP, EUR flows: UK PMI Matches 2023 and 2025 low
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 8:38 AM UTC

EUR and GBP both holding up remarkably well despite very weak PMIs, but risks remain on the downside

EUR flows: Eurozone PMI lowest since November 2023
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 8:07 AM UTC

EUR vulnerable after weak PMI

EUR flows: Weak French PMI pulling EUR lower
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 7:53 AM UTC

EUR dipping after very weak French PMI

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: USD still firm, PMIs in focus
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 6:35 AM UTC

USD remains well supported, AUD softer, EUR may be vulnerable on PMIs

May 20, 2026

USD flows: Draft agreement talk forces mkt to hedge
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 3:48 PM UTC

Al Arabiya News claim sees mkt forced to hedge
Many false dawns of course, but clearly the dominant focus now for the next few sessions

EUR/USD flows: sideways session looking likely for now
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 12:45 PM UTC

Subdued trade into next US events, needs more than brief buy the fact to offer UST relief
Expiries may be adding to the session's apathy
UK BoE TSC testimony offers interim interest

May 19, 2026

AUD/USD, EUR/USD flows: Figure breaks
Paying Article

May 19, 2026 3:02 PM UTC

Dollar remains on n/t rise as AUD and EUR dip through figure levels

USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: 20yr auction in focus Wed as UST losing hold
Paying Article

May 19, 2026 2:29 PM UTC

Event focus on Wednesday, including Nvidia earnings and US20yr auction
Latter comes as US long end is losing its grip of key ceiling levels, risking extension of selloff

EUR/USD, DXY flows: BofA survey contrary indicator highlights risks
Paying Article

May 19, 2026 12:52 PM UTC

BofA survey suggested the market went all in in May
Contrary indicator suggesting s/t over-bullish, under-risked, and underweight dollars

EUR/USD flows: Fed challenges suggest dollar outlook to remain complicated
Paying Article

May 19, 2026 10:23 AM UTC

Fed Warsh to be sworn in to a testing environment
Grand concept to run into current realities

May 18, 2026

USD flows: Waiver allows some respite
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Some respite on suggestions of US temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions, before any final agreement
Mkt lifted by some US compromise and apparent responsiveness to fresh energy pressure
Day to day development swing too wildly to get carried away

USD flows: Dollar/EM could be a near-term tell
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

Looking at dollar price action more broadly suggests it could become the dominant n/t driver
USD/regionals diverse but broadly weak, some becoming unstable
Profit-taking evident even in the strong relative shock / terms-of-trade thematic gainers

AUD/USD flows: Spec positions super-stretched into pullback, GBP trimmed
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 7:25 AM UTC

IMM positions data showed mkt was stretched long AUD into pullback, albeit partly offset on cross
GBP shorts trimmed after positioning into anticipated political event
Overall, mkt was light dollars into any volatility pick up

USD flows: Watching volatility, USD/EM, for pointers (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

FX moves slow into various big figure correction levels, but USD squeeze remains the risk
Watching background pointers such as MOVE, USD/EM for broader risk aversion

May 15, 2026

USD flows: more of the same from US data and shakeout (DXY, AUD, EUR, NOK)
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 1:25 PM UTC

US data shows strength on prices and activity, chipping away at dollar shorts
Backdrop remains skewed to stretched position reductions

USD flows: Feeling the stretch (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 9:47 AM UTC

A clash of themes coming to a head as over-accelerating AI, risk and commodity complex trades run into ongoing Iran standoff and the mini dollar squeeze
The likes of AUD, semiconductors, Kospi, metals, have been overrunning m/t trends, not to maximum excess, but to degrees that are vulnerable to a lo

USD flows: Bit of a dollar squeeze; stretched risk pullback
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 6:57 AM UTC

Dollar squeeze spreads after cable lead; stretched metals and risk mkt pull backs help broaden
Some s/t chart shifts seen, such as in NOK

May 14, 2026

USD/JPY, EUR/USD, flows: some focus on the Strait; dollar does take out some levels
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 3:56 PM UTC

Some focus on movement in the Strait, equities and European bonds firmer, though not getting carried away
Dollar does make its mini break firmer, threatened over the last few days

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows: Streeting resignation no surprise, retail sales resilient
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

Streeting resigns, hopes Starmer falls on his sword
Retail sales resilient but around expectation
Mkt still struggling for traction

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: Better Q1 GDP old news, more leadership positioning
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

Rayner announces HMRC 'all clear' ready to enter the fray, still waiting on the kick off
Mar GDP better end to UK Q1 but Q2 seen flagging
Risk rally and key US yields levels provide the broader backdrop

May 13, 2026

EUR/USD GBP/USD flows: PPI upside goes with the grain of cable slippage
Paying Article

May 13, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

Upside PPI prints see cable pressed through 1.35

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: challenge still in the works?
Paying Article

May 13, 2026 11:10 AM UTC

Reports suggest imminent challenge still in the works

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: event risk focus as odds of UK PM departure lengthen; US-China meetings kick off
Paying Article

May 13, 2026 7:04 AM UTC

Iran rhetoric and lack of progress, US-China meeting kick off
UK PM exit tone less febrile, chances of departure drop off

May 12, 2026

EUR/USD, GBP flows: US CPI firm though doesn't move the dial; a look the Starmer betting..
Paying Article

May 12, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

US Core CPI on the stiff side but doesn't move the dial enough for much FX impact
A quick look at the betting odds for UK PM Starmer

May 11, 2026

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Tame day; existing home sales remain contained at yield penalty
Paying Article

May 11, 2026 2:38 PM UTC

Contained trade, US existing home sales remain contained as yields rise

EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, GBP flows: Positioning shows little net dollar hedge, Aussie cross stretched (IMM)
Paying Article

May 11, 2026 9:03 AM UTC

Mixed positioning, but market shows little USD hedge overall, still risks being the pain trade? Natural AUD/NZD positioning stretched

May 08, 2026

USD, CAD, JPY, EUR flows: USD slightly weaker except against CAD after employment data
Paying Article

May 8, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

Weak Canadina data hits CAD, US data modestly strong but USD weaker elsewhere

USD, JPY, EUR, NOK, CAD oil flows: Ever present weekend risk
Paying Article

May 8, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

Recent pattern of hope for the best, hedge for the worst heading into w/e

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD slightly firm as US and Iran skirmish
Paying Article

May 8, 2026 6:16 AM UTC

Skirmishing between the uS and Iran overnight has had only a modest USD positive and risk negative impact so far, but...

May 07, 2026

USD flows: Little change on US data
Paying Article

May 7, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

US data slightly on the strong side, but little market impact

USD, JPY, EUR flows: Focus on US/Iran deal
Paying Article

May 7, 2026 6:24 AM UTC

Markets await Iran's response to teh US proposal to end hostilities. Market risks may be skewed towards a risk negative response after the moves of the last few days priced in a positive outcome

May 06, 2026

USD flows: USD little changed after ADP
Paying Article

May 6, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

ADP broadly in line with consensus. USD better bid after early European losses but underlying tone remains weak as long as risk sentiment remains positive. 

SEK, USD, JPY flows: SEK softer on weaker CPI, USD falls, JPY gains on suspected intervention
Paying Article

May 6, 2026 6:40 AM UTC

SEK dips as CPI comes out weaker than expected - further decline possible. USD generally softer on hopes of US/Iran deal. JPY surges on suspected intervention.

May 05, 2026

USD, JPY, AUD flows: Risk positive tone persists, US trade data much a expected
Paying Article

May 5, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Riskier currencies continue to rally after early dip, JPY weakness remains

USD, JPY flows: JPY soft as risk recovers, but...
Paying Article

May 5, 2026 8:47 AM UTC

Riskier currencies rally after early dip, JPY weakness remains

USD flows: Mild USD bid as US and Iran skirmish
Paying Article

May 5, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

USD seeing modest bid as US and Iran skirmish with AUD slipping lower

April 30, 2026

EUR/USD flows: EUR drifts lower initially after ECB
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 1:10 PM UTC

EUR is off initially, as the introductory statement was less hawkish than feared.

March 06, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: USD Down After Payrolls
Paying Article

March 6, 2026 1:38 PM UTC

USD lower after the data, but Iran war still helping USD sentiment.  

March 04, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: USD off on NYT Iran Talks Request
Paying Article

March 4, 2026 10:46 AM UTC

USD is dipping on reports of Iran reaching out to the U.S. for talks. 

March 03, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Risk Off, But
Paying Article

March 3, 2026 9:13 AM UTC

The EUR is under pressure today, despite USDJPY being stable in Europe.

March 02, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Risk Off, But
Paying Article

March 2, 2026 8:47 AM UTC

The mood remains risk off, but this is being curtailed by the modest rise in oil prices.  

February 24, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Takaichi Weakens the JPY
Paying Article

February 24, 2026 9:44 AM UTC

The JPY fell noticeably across the board in early European trading, as reports indicated that PM Takaichi had voiced concerns about further BOJ rate hikes in a meeting with BOJ Ueda – a further 25bps hike had been discounted by June.  Into mid-morning, the JPY partially retraced some of the losse

February 23, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Waiting for Trump State of the Union
Paying Article

February 23, 2026 8:00 AM UTC

In Europe, the USD has initially stabilized at lower levels.

February 20, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Q4 US GDP
Paying Article

February 20, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

GDP lower than expected but USD dip is temporary.