EUR/USD-Commentary

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October 07, 2025

EUR, JPY flows: EUR downside favoured after weak German orders, JPY weakness overdone
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October 7, 2025 6:57 AM UTC

EUR to stay soft as German orders add to evidence of slowdown. JPY weakness lacks rationale

October 06, 2025

USD, EUR flows: EUR down on French PM resignation
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October 6, 2025 8:41 AM UTC

EUR down across the board as French PM resigns after less than a month in office

October 03, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR flows: EUR up JPY down after objectively soft ISM data
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October 3, 2025 2:28 PM UTC

EUR/JPY gains on ISM look to be more to do with end of week than the data itself. 

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: JPY weaker, scope for some recovery in riskier currencies
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October 3, 2025 6:56 AM UTC

JPY weaker on Ueda comments, unemployment rise. Equities continue to gain

October 02, 2025

USD, JPY, CHF flows: Steady markets, JPY still has upside scope, CHF topping out
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October 2, 2025 6:49 AM UTC

USD steady overnight, equities making new highs (again) but JPY favoured going forward. CHF looking toppy.

October 01, 2025

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD falls on weak ADP employment data
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October 1, 2025 12:31 PM UTC

USD softer across the board but JPY favoured going forward

September 29, 2025

USD, GBP flows: USD edging lower on shutdown concerns, GBP firmer
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September 29, 2025 6:31 AM UTC

USD softer as government shutdown looms. GBP edging up

September 26, 2025

USD, CHF, CAD flows: USD edging lower, CHF vulnerable, CAD to benefit
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September 26, 2025 1:10 PM UTC

New Trump tariffs may impact EUR and CHF. CAD firmer after GDP

USD, EUR, CHF, JPY flows: More tariffs may impact EUR and CHF
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September 26, 2025 6:48 AM UTC

New Trump tariffs may impact EUR and CHF. JPY still weak

September 25, 2025

USD flows: USD up on upward revision to Q2 GDP
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September 25, 2025 12:46 PM UTC

USD firmer on upward revision to GDP, particularly against the JPY

September 23, 2025

USD flows: US PMI has little impact
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September 23, 2025 1:49 PM UTC

US S&P PMI marginally weaker than expected, but no market impact

GBP, EUR flows: Weaker UK PMI triggers GBP decline
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September 23, 2025 8:49 AM UTC

UK PMI dips, triggering GBP losses, but data is unreliable. Year's high in EUR/GBP at 0.8763 should hold

EUR flows: German services strength supports EUR
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September 23, 2025 7:15 AM UTC

The stronger German services PMI offset weakness elsewhere

September 22, 2025

USD, EUR, JPY flows: Neutral picture, risk premia remain very low
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September 22, 2025 6:50 AM UTC

USD steady, Japanese equities firmer, FX becalmed ahead of PMIs

September 18, 2025

USD flows: US data USD supportive
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September 18, 2025 12:47 PM UTC

Decline in jobless claims and stronger Philadelhia Fed survey USD supportive.

USD, EUR, JPY, NOK flows: USD firmer after Fed, JPY soft, NOK could slip on Norges Bank
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September 18, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

USD firmer after Fed despite larger than expected 2025 rate cuts in the dots. JPY continues to underperform. NOK can slip on Norges Bank

September 17, 2025

GBP flows: GBP little changed after marginally softer than expected CPI
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September 17, 2025 6:30 AM UTC

UK CPI marginally softer than expected as air fares reverse July gains. GBP little changed but EUR/GBP close to the top of the range

September 16, 2025

USD, CAD flows: USD slightly firmer, CAD little changed after data
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September 16, 2025 12:54 PM UTC

US retail sales on the strong side, halting the USD's slide. Canadian CPI in line on the core

GBP, USD flows: GBP little changed after UK data
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September 16, 2025 6:37 AM UTC

GBP unchanged after UK labour market data in line with consensus

September 15, 2025

USD, AUD, NOK, JPY flows: Equity strength supports riskier currencies, but...
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September 15, 2025 6:51 AM UTC

Equity gains have helped AUD and NOK rise, but rising risk premia suggest JPY can catch up.

September 10, 2025

USD, AUD flows: USD slightly softer after much lower than expected PPI
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September 10, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

USD modestly lower as PPI declines in August, new highs for S&P futures

USD, NOK, SEK, JPY flows: Quiet markets ahead of US price data
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September 10, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

FX markets briadly steady but JPY and NOK remain undervalued

September 09, 2025

USD, JPY flows: USD reverses initial dip on payroll revision
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September 9, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

US benchmark payroll revised down m ore than expected, but little implication for current trend

September 05, 2025

USD, CAD, JPY flows: US employment weak, Canadian weaker
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September 5, 2025 12:52 PM UTC

USD lower after weaker employment data, Canadian data much weaker still 

September 04, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly firmer on ISM, but...
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September 4, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

ISM services headline strong, but employment still weak

USD flows: USD slightly firmer despite softer data
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September 4, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

ADP and initial claims both suggest mild labor market weakness, but USD resilient

September 03, 2025

USD flows: USD dips on JOLTS
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September 3, 2025 2:22 PM UTC

July JOLTS lowest since September 2024. USD and US yields lower

USD, GBP flows: Mostly rangy, GBP may see some volatility
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September 3, 2025 6:50 AM UTC

USD remains mostly range bound. GBP in focus as MPC members speak

September 02, 2025

USD, JPY flows: USD slips after ISM, JPY has scope for recovery
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September 2, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

ISM manufacturing rises less than expected but new orders index encouraging. USD downside likely modest but scope for more general JPY recovery.

JPY flows: JPY under pressure as US and European yields rise
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September 2, 2025 6:47 AM UTC

JPY falls across the board as US and European yields rise despite hawkish comments from BoJ deputy governor Himino

August 29, 2025

USD, CAD flows: USD steady but CAD under pressure
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August 29, 2025 1:06 PM UTC

US trade data USD negative, but little impact thus far. CAD suffers from weaker GDP

EUR flows: EUR firmer but Eurozone CPI data net neutral
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August 29, 2025 8:43 AM UTC

French and Spanish CPI a little softer, Germna CPI a little stronger. Little case for EUR strength

EUR, SEK flows: FX little changed despite weak German, strong Swedish data
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August 29, 2025 6:52 AM UTC

German retail sales weak, Swedish GDP strong, little FX reaction so far

August 28, 2025

USD, CHF flows: USD marginally firmer on data, CHF soft
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August 28, 2025 1:07 PM UTC

Claims dip, GDP revised up, CHF weakening

EUR flows: Little impact from ECB minutes
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August 28, 2025 11:48 AM UTC

ECB minutes deliberately neutral, but Rehn comments help maintain pressure on USD

USD flows: USD softer as yields move lower
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August 28, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

Declining US yields and negative Nvidia reaction to results put the USD under pressure

August 27, 2025

EUR flows: EUR has some downside risks as confidence slips
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August 27, 2025 6:46 AM UTC

German confidence follows French confidence decline

August 26, 2025

USD flows: USD marginally firmer after durable goods orders
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August 26, 2025 1:02 PM UTC

Ex-transport durables show some strongth, but USD still hampered by Fed focus

USD flows: USD recovers after initial dip, but...
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August 26, 2025 6:44 AM UTC

USD dip on firing of Fed's Cook largely reversed, but negative bias remains

August 22, 2025

USD flows: USD generally lower on Powell
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August 22, 2025 2:13 PM UTC

Powell signals September rate cut liekly. US yields lower and USD down with them. JPY leads the way

EUR flows: EUR unmoved by Nagel comments
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August 22, 2025 2:01 PM UTC

Mildly hawkish comemnts from a hawk have little impact

USD, EUR, AUD flows: USD firm, EUR and AUD under pressure
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August 22, 2025 6:42 AM UTC

Stronger US data, a downward revision to German Q2 GDP and weaker equities put the USD on the front foot against the EUR and AUD

August 21, 2025

USD flows: USD dips after stronger claims
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August 21, 2025 2:09 PM UTC

Higher initial and continuing claims trigger modest USD decline

USD flows: USD gains on strong PMI
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August 21, 2025 2:02 PM UTC

US composite S&P MI matches the high from December. USD gains across the board

EUR flows: EUR slightly higher after better PMI
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August 21, 2025 8:12 AM UTC

EUR/USD edging up after modestly better PMI but range remains intact

August 20, 2025

USD flows: USD lower after Trump calls for Fed governor resignation
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August 20, 2025 1:52 PM UTC

Trump has called for Fed governor Lisa Cook to resign due to accusations of mortgage fraud. USD lower, safe havens preferred

August 19, 2025

USD flows: Most pairs rangebound
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August 19, 2025 6:42 AM UTC

Little to move markets today as Ukraine Summit produces little of substance. Mild risk negative tone

August 18, 2025

USD flows: Quiet start
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August 18, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

Little to move markets today with Trump-Zelenky meeting the main focus

August 15, 2025

USD flows: USD edges lower despite solid US data
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August 15, 2025 1:12 PM UTC

US retail sale sand Empire survey on the strong side

JPY flows: JPY firm after stronger than expected Q2 GDP
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August 15, 2025 6:40 AM UTC

Japanese GDP rose 0.3% q/q in Q2, supporting the JPY