EUR/USD, DXY flows: ISM not the PMI, but still strong in details

October 1, 2026 2:14 PM UTC

ISM not as extreme on the headline as the PMI, but details still firm

EUR/USD, DXY flows: Dollar on the MOVE; shifting EUR/CHF mood

October 1, 2026 11:10 AM UTC

Surge in MOVE has been upping the volatility backdrop and helping drive the dollar firmer in the current over-extended action
Yield jump and higher vol tending to squeeze some popular carries recent days, USD/MXN especially
EUR/CHF runs out of gas against this backdrop, potentially correcting
Bond acti

Could blow out in French spreads, CDS, catch up with the euro? (EUR/GBP flows)

October 1, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Recent action in OAT-bund spreads continues to extend, yet to fully come onto the FX mkt radar
EUR-GBP CDS spread widening the fastest since 2017
EUR/GBP could extend the resistance test failure to range lows if relative risk re-pricing starts to impact narrative, sentiment

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF flows - Yen dips after period end, pulls to expiries

October 1, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

USD/JPY bounces after period end weight, and key expiries again proving magnetic (158-158.25 today)
USD/CHF still trending to 0.84 resistance, CPI tame
ISM the main interest later today ahead of payrolls

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - PCE prices revised down as suspected; Germany confirmed higher

September 30, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Mixed data, PCE price downward revisions, Germany upside, tending to stem the dollar 
Cable seeing the greatest benefit, with short positioning and GDP data helping firm Nov hike expectations

EUR/USD flows - National CPI figures coming in high; timing still a near-term focus

September 30, 2026 9:15 AM UTC

EZ national CPI prints coming in high; keeps mkt juggling odds, mindful of Lagarde's 'measured' guidance
Fed side of the equation also in balance after Williams less urgent - key data ahead

USD/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD - Counter specific issues to the fore

September 28, 2026 2:22 PM UTC

CHF remains pressured on its unicorn policy stance
EUR/GBP sold back after failed resistance test, mkt very short GBP
AUD eyes RBA, with a hike fully priced in and so attention on any forward guidance from here. A tricky balancing act ...

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - sterling got thematically oversold

September 28, 2026 9:07 AM UTC

Dollar longs bounce back and now fairly broad
Most dollar pairs moderate however rather than extreme
Sterling the exception, became the most popular "obvious short" last week amid CB moves
Potentially stretched now into cable support, BoE shifting Nov odds. EUR/GBP also again rejecting resistance test,

EUR/NOK, USD/NOK flows: Norges exercises hike, central view is now a pause

September 24, 2026 8:25 AM UTC

Norges exercises hike option; keying of external price impulses from here
It's main scenario is pause at current restrictive level before trimming
Mkt is already a little more hawkish than the central view

EUR/SEK, EUR/CHF - Hawkish hold from Riksbank, very dovish hold from SNB

September 24, 2026 8:05 AM UTC

Slight pop for SEK after hawkish hold from Riksbank, EUR/SEK capped back from resistance
Very dovish hold from SNB, inflation subdued through to 2028 on unchanged rates
Latter keeps CHF as an increasingly extreme low yielder

EUR/USD flows - Notable PMI upside, even as break follows through

September 23, 2026 8:20 AM UTC

EUR/USD follows through on the support break
Very notable upside on the EZ PMI worth noting however

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - Dollar stretches firmer with spreads

September 23, 2026 7:01 AM UTC

Dollar extends its broad post Fed gains, as Fed speakers maintain hawkish skew; Oct hike just above 50-50
EUR/USD tracks short end spread action; eying oil and relative impact going forward
Brent sitting below $100, talking up Iran prospects

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Trump doesn't get the memo, oil and yields off lows

September 22, 2026 4:24 PM UTC

Oil backs off early optimism after usual threat laden Trump speech
Yields and dollar also back higher on the day

EUR/SEK, NOK/SEK flows: Brent speeds up on $100 break, watching headlines

September 22, 2026 11:24 AM UTC

$100 break picks up some speed as the market hedges towards possible Iran progress at UN 'window of opportunity' 
NOK/SEK the stereotypically responsive cross, while wider mkt also influenced via impact on rate expectations and risk sentiment
Enough deja vu not to be counting chickens, while adjustin

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - jump in yen longs squeezed last week

September 21, 2026 7:13 AM UTC

Jump in yen longs, pulled dollar net closer to balance overall into big central bank meetings, setting up shif out
Mkt gets caught JPY long into the local USD/JPY lows and squeezed 
NZD still long, has already illustrated contrary indicator selloff qualities

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: oil hoping on UN progress despite noise; France budget worries pressure

September 21, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

Japan on holiday Mon-Wed, keeping overnight activity thin
Oil easing, hoping of diplomatic efforts at UN diplomacy
Background focus on French bond pressure on deficit/debt concerns

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: long end rallies out of APF announcement

September 17, 2026 11:53 AM UTC

APF announcement sees a pause as it discusses shift to purchases to the government via the DMO
Thereafter, average sales seen around £46bn, with a freeze on sales outside of (partially) 2049

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: MPC 'passes'; still back of the tightening pack

September 17, 2026 11:23 AM UTC

BoE leaves rates unchanged with unchanged vote.
November IR month remains the real test as the Bank takes stock of length of supply shock and so risk balance
Mkt already running ahead of the MPC though in terms of pricing, BoE remains back of the major CB pack

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: back-to-back or election pause could be key $ factor

September 17, 2026 9:46 AM UTC

After Fed hike, whether it goes back-to-back or waits for Dec could be a key factor for the $ near-term
History has tended to favour the follow up moves, but election is the big elephant in the room this time
Oct is heavily loaded symbolically, both in terms of how mkt would price (majority Fed dots o

USD/JPY, GBP/USD flows: Supply, expiries cap USD/JPY back; focus turns to BoE MPC

September 17, 2026 7:07 AM UTC

Consolidation of the post Fed move overall
USD/JPY weighed back from 156+ by supply and approaching large expiry at 155, ahead of key BoJ meeting
Focus today on the BoE, seen unchanged but judging the vote and the tone. Seen slowing QT

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Key highlights from Fed SEP pivot, stepping $ higher

September 16, 2026 7:16 PM UTC

Key highlights from the FOMC Sep, as Fed funds projections lifted higher
Market expectations for this year validated with upside skew, 2027 slightly below though largest number see the extra hike delivered, narrowing the gap
EUR/USD breaks down to around 1.1475~, 61.8% retracement, with 1.1420 below
US

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Fed shifts gears, sees quick, short dash to get back up to the curve on inflation

September 16, 2026 6:22 PM UTC

Clear shift in emphasis to catching up to the curve on elevated inflation
Dots suggest the Fed is minded to catch up with a quick string of corrective tightenings this year before hoping to plateau at less accommodative FF
Speed of adjustment bolsters dollar, despite less hawkish long projections than

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: mind the gap - dots have a large one to bridge...

September 16, 2026 1:00 PM UTC

Looking back at the June SEP, dots shows what a large gap has developed to current mkt pricing
Uncertain, mixed FOMC may struggle to validate that leap and leave quite a large divergence behind
Interesting to judge markets' reaction to disagreement. 
MMKT and bonds have got oversold in recent accelera

GBP/USD, EUR/USD flows: Sidelined into big Fed meeting; no surprises from UK CPI

September 16, 2026 7:52 AM UTC

FX holds flat into the big FOMC meeting, focused on the dots and the tone
UK CPI as expected, likely leaves BoE in divided pause this week

Kiwi longs as a contrary indicator

September 14, 2026 11:15 AM UTC

Mkt turned long NZD in latest IMM week
That has tended to prove a contrary indicator rather than a bullish one more often than not
Descriptive stats show a skew towards downside kiwi corrections in the following window
May also be suggestive of wider current risk positioning in FX

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports - carry switching on show, contrary indicator for kiwi

September 14, 2026 8:57 AM UTC

Spec market turns slightly JPY long for the first time since Apr
At the same time, CHF shorts pick back up on switching, now some 1.3stdev above average
Overall $ long pared back further, still net long but back within normal bounds, tempering headwinds
Mkt still short GBP, positioning may be tending t

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: pressures offer $ support

September 14, 2026 6:53 AM UTC

Risk negatives offering dollar some early week support into key meetings

AUD/USD flows: Risk Sour

September 14, 2026 5:09 AM UTC

Risk sours on geopolitics 

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF flows: Core CPI upside bolster Sep hike odds

September 11, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Core CPI upside supports Sep FOMC tightening call, and mkt odds rise to around 85% 
FX reaction modest thus far, though CHF remains on the back foot as the increasing low inflation, low rates stand out

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - Yields and US CPI in focus; UK GDP upside keeps cross cap holding

September 11, 2026 6:53 AM UTC

US CPI and bond yields in focus
UK GDP upside helps cap EUR/GBP, keep GBP shorts at bay while holds

EUR/USD flows: Minor dip out of announcement, but projections nudged up

September 10, 2026 12:30 PM UTC

Minor intraday sell fact on announcement but even with boilerplate language inflation projection nudged up
Inflation risks to upside, growth risks to the downside

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: ECB, US PPI, then CPI; mkt wary of hawkish risks from both sides

September 10, 2026 6:56 AM UTC

ECB meeting, then PPI followed by CPI from the US
Mkt wary of 'hawkish' surprises from both sides, could see some chop
For the ECB, main interest will be whether recent US-Iran developments and energy complex pressure hardens the neutral tone

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Buyback announcement provides some $ interest

September 9, 2026 11:59 AM UTC

Some focus on buyback size later, ahead of week's key events

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows: Main themes continue prior to end of week event risks

September 9, 2026 8:07 AM UTC

USD/JPY continues to see supply, dragging the dollar, even as oil elevated
ECB, US inflation the approaching headline event risks

AUD/USD flows: Hauser Keeping Rate Hike Alive

September 9, 2026 5:50 AM UTC

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told ABC on Tuesday evening that inflation remains the central bank's one big problem

USD/JPY flows: Correction Continues

September 9, 2026 4:29 AM UTC

Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it struck two US Navy destroyers and 18 vessels attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz