USD/JPY, EUR/USD flows: Dollar breaks lower with yields after Treasury backstopping signal

August 19, 2026 1:31 PM UTC

Dollar breaks lower as Treasury increases long end buyback ops
Drives long end yields down, reverses the week's gains, and viewed as backstopping reassurance
Dollar reaction both driven by yields but also the 'bad look'

EUR/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP flows: Risk still retreating, CAD not celebrating yet; data leaves BoE views unchanged

August 19, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

Risk still correcting while bonds level off, and oil still drifting out 
CAD not yet celebrating potential deal, as talks extended 
Sterling unmoved by CPI, BoE odds still at that gradual move to one hike view

USD/JPY flows: Still in Consolidation Zone

August 19, 2026 3:58 AM UTC

UAE formally halted all trade, commercial and financial transactions with Iran

AUD/USD flows: Regional Risk Sag

August 19, 2026 3:47 AM UTC

Korean Equities Take the Spotlight

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - new long end yield highs jangle nerves

August 18, 2026 1:33 PM UTC

Push out in long end US yields to refresh post 2007 highs 
May start to jangle nerves as risk mkt emerge from low vol summer-happy mood

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows - UK labour data softer; schizophrenic mood slightly catches up with risk o/n

August 18, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

The schizophrenic, compartmentalised performance slightly catches up with risk overnight, as US-Iran standoff slightly dents mood
UK labor data overall soft and helps keep BoE wait and see on hold 

USD/JPY flows: USD Bid on Sour Risk

August 18, 2026 5:06 AM UTC

USD trading higher

AUD/USD flows: Risk Turning Sour

August 18, 2026 4:10 AM UTC

Risk Turning Sour

USD/CAD flows: CPI data set aside on run in to the key trade event risk

August 17, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

CPI data firmer, supporting message from recent real economy data
CAD however circumspect on the run in to the trade deadline, talks seen going to wire

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Aug 11, little change in the week

August 17, 2026 7:55 AM UTC

IMM data for w/e Aug 11 generally shows little change across counters, still very long $ overall
Yen shorts still smallest since Apr, and around 'normal' levels for recent years
Market remains extreme CAD short into trade deadline - binary event but squeeze risk evident
MXN longs inch back out amid the

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - still low vol summer usd/risk versus Iran standoff

August 17, 2026 7:02 AM UTC

Better risk/usd tone holds in, amid low vol and equity resilience
The question mark remains for how long as both US and Iran play the long game stand off

AUD/USD flows: USD Softer To Begin the Week

August 17, 2026 4:19 AM UTC

USD Soft Start

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, DXY flows - retail miss adds to dollar trimming

August 14, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

Fairly hefty downside miss on retail sales headlines adds another straw this week
May tip $ into more of a pullback having stuck in their long

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD flows - no-vol summer, but for how long; BoJ hike talk continues

August 14, 2026 7:03 AM UTC

Low vol summer, extreme lows may be suggestive of more noise ahead, eventually
Further sources talk of BoJ mulling Sep and faster
UK byelection finishes with Reform winning locally, but losing nationally

AUD/USD flows: Quiet Start

August 14, 2026 5:22 AM UTC

Quiet Start

USD/JPY flows: FX market rangebound

August 14, 2026 2:16 AM UTC

Latvia issued an air threat alert 
Finland imposed a temporary restriction on aviation and maritime traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - some downside on the PPI data, but FX currently not playing

August 13, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

PPI data slightly undershoots but FX not that engaged 

EUR/NOK flows: Norges Bank holds as expected, slightly less hawkish but reserves judgement

August 13, 2026 8:09 AM UTC

Norges as expected, on hold and notes inflation undershoot
It reserves judgement but overall slightly less hawkish
Outlook ultimately depends on global backdrop over next few quarters

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: June GDP holds up, though recent trend still stagnant

August 13, 2026 6:36 AM UTC

GDP holds up as weather impact chequered, some world cup lift too
Following flat and -0.1%, the 0.3% print leaves recent trend stagnant all the same
Sterling left largely unmoved

USD/JPY flows: Little Changed

August 13, 2026 4:54 AM UTC

United Arab Emirates had released a further tranche of Iran's frozen assets held in Emirati banks

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - CPI as expected and likely defers judgements

August 12, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Slight damp squib, very much on consensus. 
A report that probably wont change any opinions greatly. 
Another CPI report (and PCE data) to come before Sep FOMC and that could be more critical

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - still waiting on $-influential CPI

August 12, 2026 6:50 AM UTC

No sign of movement in Iran, mkt otherwise still holding sight into US CPI
Latter has potential to move the mkt, especially with positioning still overall long dollar

AUD/USD flows: Risk Still Undecided

August 12, 2026 4:24 AM UTC

Major equity indexes are performing individually

USD/JPY flows: Yields March Higher

August 12, 2026 1:55 AM UTC

JGB yields are marching higher

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - Oil cycles with the headlines; existing home sales as expected, CPI the focus

August 11, 2026 3:11 PM UTC

Quiet day, oil stays off the highs after Pakistan positive noises but waits on the facts
Otherwise, drifting into the US CPI release

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows - quiet day, oil still drifting out

August 11, 2026 6:51 AM UTC

Quiet out of Japan holiday,
Oil drifts out as Iran deal elusive and bogged down in rhetoric

AUD/USD flows: RBA keep Rates Unchanged

August 11, 2026 5:32 AM UTC

RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35%

USD/JPY flows: Jiji says BoJ Hike in Sep

August 11, 2026 4:16 AM UTC

Jiji says The BoJ may consider an additional rate hike at its September 17-18 meeting

Is CAD poised for a short-squeeze?

August 10, 2026 5:03 PM UTC

There's a decent argument that, event-risk given, CAD may be poised for a short-squeeze
Positioning is extreme and against the grain of recent $ moves
 Data has been surprising to the upside supporting a shift in momentum
Lead indicator trends support a recent move back toward recovery and outperforma

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Aug 4, $ longs cut but still remain; CAD the outlier now

August 10, 2026 10:20 AM UTC

IMM data for w/e Aug 4 unsurprisingly show record $ long was cut in some long liquidation
Yen shorts in particular retreats, albeit not back to flat - allowing recent USD/JPY oversold rebasing/backfilling
CAD the main exception, shorts stay at the highs. An outlier to watch for any surprises that sque

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/NOK Flows: core NOK CPI a little under, still waiting on Iran

August 10, 2026 6:58 AM UTC

Yen in Fri's bar, still basing and in n/t consolidation/correction mode
Iran says Oman deal close, rhetoric on US demands remains high
NOK inflation higher on headline but a little under on core, Norge hike odds relatively limited for Aug

AUD/USD flows: Risk On the Soft End

August 10, 2026 5:14 AM UTC

Weekend news not positive for risk

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Payrolls pressures $ longs, even with unemployment rate proviso

August 7, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Downside payrolls surprises with revisions - although note that zero or less is now trend...
Unemployment rate dip one counterpoint, though soft earnings the deciding factor
Focus turns to inflation data, but long $ positioning hit again, USD/JPY retains downside skew

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Waiting on payrolls

August 7, 2026 7:07 AM UTC

Oil mid range for the week, waiting to see if a deal emerges and how viable it is
Otherwise focus on US payrolls. Market has been invited to react and express its opinion

AUD/USD flows: No Risk Bet Before Weekend

August 7, 2026 5:47 AM UTC

Risk undecided

USD/JPY flows: Household spending misses

August 7, 2026 1:56 AM UTC

Japan June Household spending -6.4% m/m

EUR/USD, USD/JPY Flows: Oil, UST, dollar, all on edge

August 6, 2026 4:45 PM UTC

More wires comments leaving the market on edge over rhetorical exchanges and practical problems with deal
Oil, USTs, dollar also see a pop

AUD/USD flows: DRC tightens copper exports

August 6, 2026 9:52 AM UTC

Copper's break higher picks up as DRC restrict raw exports
Marginally AUD supportive albeit a varied overall commodity mix price picture

EUR/SEK, NOK/SEK: Upside on CPI, further rollover more risk, oil dependent

August 6, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

Upside on flash CPIF data though core still low enough not to be the focus
EUR/SEK has rolled back, with risk bounce, oil more the focal point still 
Drifting towards uptrend, 38% retrac.

USD/JPY flows: Consolidating

August 6, 2026 6:17 AM UTC

Japan LDP lawmaker floats BOJ ETF sales to fund Japan tax cut

Silver lining: a case for a precious metals retracement

August 5, 2026 11:53 AM UTC

Looking at technicals, seasonals, positioning, recent and upcoming events, there's a case for gold and silver building off a base
Break higher off that base could allow a decent absolute retracement move ahead, even if long-term charts still headwind

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, NOK Flows: Waiting for latest 'deal'; BoJ 'market savvy' on timing?

August 5, 2026 6:47 AM UTC

All eyes on the latest 'deal', US hopeful of today; cedes to much of Iran's wish list
Bessent underscores BoJ expectations; market savvy thing to deal is not dally in Sep