USD Flows: blockade and taking a cut; messy situation gets messier

July 13, 2026 2:48 PM UTC

Battle of the grift, as Trump talks blockade and 20% protection fee

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Jul 7

July 13, 2026 11:04 AM UTC

IMM data echoes recent trends, with market broadly long dollar, if euro neutral
NZD shorts even more extreme (3stdev +) into the RBNZ squeeze
GBP shorts also stayed large even as cross stretched range downside

USD Flows - mkt unwilling to commit amid broader escalation, hugs familiar figures

July 13, 2026 6:34 AM UTC

Battle becoming more entrenched over Strait control
Mkt unwilling to commit and be whipsawed again though
Minor USD haven skew but sticks to the familiar figures, risks do seem to be growing

USD/JPY flows: Haven USD Bids

July 13, 2026 5:30 AM UTC

USD haven bids

USD/JPY Flows - GPIF window guidance could prove a notable shift

July 10, 2026 7:16 AM UTC

GPIF radical asset allocation overhauls in 2014 and 2020 were major events
Window guidance shifts could be significant especially if they ripple out more widely

AUD/USD flows: Cautious Friday

July 10, 2026 4:44 AM UTC

U.S. official said late Thursday that Washington remains committed to a resolution with Iran

EUR/USD Flows - ECB predetermined, Fed open minded? (Fed Williams, ECB Minutes)

July 9, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

ECB Minutes unsurprisingly hawkish given the decision and the presser, but do underscore the rigid view on the mmkt curve
Fed Williams meanwhile nods to upside risks, but mainly highlights 'collective reaction function' and open questions

USD Flows - despite it all, still summer drift, kiwi only thing flying

July 9, 2026 12:55 PM UTC

Ironic summer apathetic drift despite it all, waiting for any clear signals
Kiwi still the only mover, squeezing in the old range

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - Chilli yesterday, TACO today?

July 9, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Familiar de-escalation comments follow yesterday's outburst and fresh exchanges. Mkt left waiting to hear from Iran
Fed Minutes highlight two scenarios and rate paths ahead. Iran and tech demand remain highly relevant
EUR/GBP meanwhile inching out the lows

USD/JPY flows: Pausing before July High

July 9, 2026 5:02 AM UTC

USD softens

USD Flows - Dangerous rhetoric loop?

July 8, 2026 2:55 PM UTC

Iran threat to close Strait adds to the ramp up
Danger that things get out of control in current rhetoric-action one-upping, even if result makes no sense

EUR/USD Flows - Trump shooting from hip at NATO, Iran MOU 'over' and Spain 'no trade'

July 8, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

Trump firing shots at NATO, aiming at Spain and Iran
MoU 'over' comments can spook oil and squeeze NOK (and CAD)

USD flows: FX subdued even with the fragile backdrop

July 8, 2026 6:46 AM UTC

Kiwi the outperformer on the RBNZ rate hike
Elsewhere FX remains subdued even with some fragility in the backdrop 

USD/JPY flows: Fast Approaching Monthly High

July 8, 2026 5:43 AM UTC

USD/JPY Fast Approaching Monthly High
Iran says it targeted a US base in Bahrain, warns of more attacks

EUR/USD Flows - Mixed Le Pen outcome, France challenges regardless

July 7, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Le Pen court ruling. Challenges for France in any case

IMM Commitment of Traders Reports w/e Jun 30

July 7, 2026 8:25 AM UTC

Latest IMM data highlights market was still strongly spec GBP short - playing to the squeeze and EUR/GBP breakdown
NZD shorts also extended and so prone to bounce if RBNZ does not 'disappoint' 
JPY shorts remain at the highs - so still a short base for noise if/when jitters strikes, as US holiday sho

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - Kospi lively; FX relatively subdued

July 7, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

Minor edge for the dollar and yen in limited range trade
Kospi has another lively session as pullback continues

AUD/USD flows: No Boring Day at the Strait

July 7, 2026 5:25 AM UTC

Iranian forces strike LNG tanker and commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - US NM ISM solid as expected

July 6, 2026 2:25 PM UTC

US NM ISM broadly as expected, another solid report

USD/JPY NZD/USD flows: Corrective action overnight

July 6, 2026 6:33 AM UTC

USD/JPY regains 162 after US holiday passes
NZD/USD sees some profit-taking ahead of RBNZ, not yet holding onto 0.57

USD/JPY flows: Rotate Higher

July 6, 2026 4:58 AM UTC

USD Solid on Monday

AUD/USD flows: Market Chops

July 6, 2026 4:07 AM UTC

OPEC+ confirmed a fifth straight monthly output increase

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - looking quiet unless yen sees another flurry

July 3, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

Could be quiet into US holiday unless there is another flurry of squaring

AUD/USD flows: Risk Upbeat Heading into the Weekend

July 3, 2026 5:31 AM UTC

Market broadly upbeat after a miss in NFP

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - miss on payrolls trims Fed bets, pulls dollar back

July 2, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Payrolls misses, especially with revisions and, even with unemployment dip, gives the Fed more space to stay on hold
Takes some wind out of the dollar's sail, and makes USD/JPY exit look well timed

USD/JPY flows: Spoofy action to become occupational hazard

July 2, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Specific trigger for quick USD/JPY dip unclear as yet
But burst of short yen covering had been expected prior to US holiday
And spoofing is likely to become increasingly common - both MoF and market generated

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: Cross consolidates break lower; dollar waits for payrolls

July 2, 2026 6:46 AM UTC

Waiting game ahead of payrolls holiday, some wariness over MoF
Dollar also checked since Warsh's comments
EUR/GBP the main interest in recent hours with the range breakdown

USD/JPY flows: Silent Intervention Soon?

July 2, 2026 4:11 AM UTC

Reuter cited sources that Japanese officials are moving away from telegraphing intervention risk and toward unsignalled action designed to squeeze speculative yen short positions

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: ISM another slight miss, back to as-you-were

July 1, 2026 2:17 PM UTC

ISM another small miss, EUR/USD back to 1.14
Mkt eyes payrolls and then closing shop early ahead of 'risky' US holiday?

EUR/USD flows: Slight miss on ADP shrugged off as within noise tolerance

July 1, 2026 12:29 PM UTC

ADP slight downside given the benefit of the doubt
EUR/USD still a bit heavy, market's ECB follow up expectations ebb out

EUR/USD flows: HICP, build up to payrolls on the agenda

July 1, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

USD/JPY still sneaking out the new highs
Otherwise relatively sidelined, building into payrolls as the next focal point

AUD/USD flows: Market Undecided

July 1, 2026 5:00 AM UTC

Market undecided on Middle East complication

EUR/USD flows: Bessent's musings on payrolls keeps it firmly on the radar

June 30, 2026 1:24 PM UTC

EUR/USD still glued to 1.14
Bessent 'wouldn't be surprised' by good payrolls

EUR/USD flows: Softer inflation prints; pair keeping tabs on 1.14

June 30, 2026 9:29 AM UTC

German state, Italian and especially French inflation prints come in softer
Bolsters short-end, DE2s near the yield pullback lows
EUR/USD keeps tabs on 1.14 however

USD/JPY flows: Lifted into period end; EUR/USD 1.14 options

June 30, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

New highs for USD/JPY, seeing lift into period-end
1.14 options for EUR/USD may attract 

AUD/USD flows: Risk mood upbeat

June 30, 2026 5:33 AM UTC

Risk mood upbeat