AUD/USD-Commentary

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May 22, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Consolidating Lower
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May 22, 2026 5:37 AM UTC

Aussie Consolidates

May 21, 2026

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: Uranium standoff rumbles on
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May 21, 2026 10:48 AM UTC

Market prisoner to the headlines intraday
Latest has Iran pushback on enriched uranium. Hard line on both sides leaves deal unresolved. 

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: USD still firm, PMIs in focus
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May 21, 2026 6:35 AM UTC

USD remains well supported, AUD softer, EUR may be vulnerable on PMIs

AUD/USD flows: Australian Labor Market Slows
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May 21, 2026 3:21 AM UTC

Australia unemployment jumps to 4.5%

May 20, 2026

USD flows: Draft agreement talk forces mkt to hedge
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May 20, 2026 3:48 PM UTC

Al Arabiya News claim sees mkt forced to hedge
Many false dawns of course, but clearly the dominant focus now for the next few sessions

AUD/USD flows: No improvement of risk atmosphere
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May 20, 2026 4:51 AM UTC

Trump briefed on Iran strike options after pausing attack

May 19, 2026

AUD/USD, EUR/USD flows: Figure breaks
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May 19, 2026 3:02 PM UTC

Dollar remains on n/t rise as AUD and EUR dip through figure levels

AUD/USD flows: Sentiment Still Sour
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May 19, 2026 4:22 AM UTC

Trump says good chance of Iran deal after Gulf states secure attack pause

May 18, 2026

USD flows: Waiver allows some respite
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May 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Some respite on suggestions of US temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions, before any final agreement
Mkt lifted by some US compromise and apparent responsiveness to fresh energy pressure
Day to day development swing too wildly to get carried away

USD flows: Dollar/EM could be a near-term tell
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May 18, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

Looking at dollar price action more broadly suggests it could become the dominant n/t driver
USD/regionals diverse but broadly weak, some becoming unstable
Profit-taking evident even in the strong relative shock / terms-of-trade thematic gainers

AUD/USD flows: Spec positions super-stretched into pullback, GBP trimmed
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May 18, 2026 7:25 AM UTC

IMM positions data showed mkt was stretched long AUD into pullback, albeit partly offset on cross
GBP shorts trimmed after positioning into anticipated political event
Overall, mkt was light dollars into any volatility pick up

USD flows: Watching volatility, USD/EM, for pointers (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
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May 18, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

FX moves slow into various big figure correction levels, but USD squeeze remains the risk
Watching background pointers such as MOVE, USD/EM for broader risk aversion

AUD/USD flows: Broader Sentiment Sour
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May 18, 2026 4:52 AM UTC

Broader Sentiment Sour

May 15, 2026

USD flows: more of the same from US data and shakeout (DXY, AUD, EUR, NOK)
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May 15, 2026 1:25 PM UTC

US data shows strength on prices and activity, chipping away at dollar shorts
Backdrop remains skewed to stretched position reductions

USD flows: Feeling the stretch (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
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May 15, 2026 9:47 AM UTC

A clash of themes coming to a head as over-accelerating AI, risk and commodity complex trades run into ongoing Iran standoff and the mini dollar squeeze
The likes of AUD, semiconductors, Kospi, metals, have been overrunning m/t trends, not to maximum excess, but to degrees that are vulnerable to a lo

USD flows: Bit of a dollar squeeze; stretched risk pullback
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May 15, 2026 6:57 AM UTC

Dollar squeeze spreads after cable lead; stretched metals and risk mkt pull backs help broaden
Some s/t chart shifts seen, such as in NOK

AUD/USD flows: Market Sours
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May 15, 2026 3:56 AM UTC

China foreign ministry says we should reopen Hormuz ASAP

May 13, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Q1 Wage Steady
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May 13, 2026 4:15 AM UTC

Australian Q1 wage price index bangs in estimate

May 12, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Mood Sours
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May 12, 2026 5:10 AM UTC

Iran is ready to dilute highly enriched uranium to levels of 3.7% and 20%
Trump said the ceasefire is "on life support"

May 11, 2026

EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, GBP flows: Positioning shows little net dollar hedge, Aussie cross stretched (IMM)
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May 11, 2026 9:03 AM UTC

Mixed positioning, but market shows little USD hedge overall, still risks being the pain trade? Natural AUD/NZD positioning stretched

AUD/USD flows: Off to a Poor Start
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May 11, 2026 1:29 AM UTC

Weekend headlines pessimistic

May 08, 2026

USD, CAD, JPY, EUR flows: USD slightly weaker except against CAD after employment data
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May 8, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

Weak Canadina data hits CAD, US data modestly strong but USD weaker elsewhere

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD slightly firm as US and Iran skirmish
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May 8, 2026 6:16 AM UTC

Skirmishing between the uS and Iran overnight has had only a modest USD positive and risk negative impact so far, but...

AUD/USD flows: Ceasefire Does not Seem to Hold
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May 8, 2026 4:11 AM UTC

UAE says it is responding again to a missile threat

May 07, 2026

USD flows: Little change on US data
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May 7, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

US data slightly on the strong side, but little market impact

USD, JPY, EUR flows: Focus on US/Iran deal
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May 7, 2026 6:24 AM UTC

Markets await Iran's response to teh US proposal to end hostilities. Market risks may be skewed towards a risk negative response after the moves of the last few days priced in a positive outcome

AUD/USD flows: Risk Shaky Again
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May 7, 2026 2:33 AM UTC

Iran to deliver response to U.S. war-ending proposal via Pakistan mediators on Thursday 
Saudi base ban forced Trump to pause Strait of Hormuz shipping operation

May 06, 2026

USD flows: USD little changed after ADP
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May 6, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

ADP broadly in line with consensus. USD better bid after early European losses but underlying tone remains weak as long as risk sentiment remains positive. 

SEK, USD, JPY flows: SEK softer on weaker CPI, USD falls, JPY gains on suspected intervention
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May 6, 2026 6:40 AM UTC

SEK dips as CPI comes out weaker than expected - further decline possible. USD generally softer on hopes of US/Iran deal. JPY surges on suspected intervention.

AUD/USD flows: Cheering for potential peace
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May 6, 2026 2:36 AM UTC

Australia to build A$10bn fuel reserve as Middle East crisis drives stockpile push

May 05, 2026

USD, JPY, AUD flows: Risk positive tone persists, US trade data much a expected
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May 5, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Riskier currencies continue to rally after early dip, JPY weakness remains

USD, JPY flows: JPY soft as risk recovers, but...
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May 5, 2026 8:47 AM UTC

Riskier currencies rally after early dip, JPY weakness remains

USD flows: Mild USD bid as US and Iran skirmish
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May 5, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

USD seeing modest bid as US and Iran skirmish with AUD slipping lower

AUD/USD flows: Last hike for now
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May 5, 2026 5:23 AM UTC

The RBA March meeting hike rates to 4.35% on a 8-1 vote

May 04, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Private Inflation Survey Hot
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May 4, 2026 4:53 AM UTC

Private Inflation Survey Hot

May 01, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Broader Risk Mood Positive
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May 1, 2026 5:14 AM UTC

Broader Risk Mood Positive

April 30, 2026

AUD/USD flows: No News Should Be Good News For Now
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April 30, 2026 5:30 AM UTC

US CENTCOM to brief Trump Thursday on Iran military options including infrastructure strike, Hormuz seizure and special forces uranium mission

April 29, 2026

AUD/USD flows: CPI Rockets
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April 29, 2026 4:20 AM UTC

Q1 CPI Rockets

April 28, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Nothing concrete
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April 28, 2026 2:34 AM UTC

Trump skeptical of Iran's negotiation offer

April 27, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Sentiment Improves
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April 27, 2026 1:13 AM UTC

Sentiment improves after the opening drop

April 24, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Relief Rally Shortlived
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April 24, 2026 5:17 AM UTC

Hopium

April 23, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Sentiment Heavy
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April 23, 2026 5:22 AM UTC

Broader sentiment heavy

April 22, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Little progress
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April 22, 2026 2:06 AM UTC

Trump threatens to "blow up the rest of their Country"

April 21, 2026

NZD/USD flows: Q1 CPI Overshoot
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April 21, 2026 2:27 AM UTC

Q1 CPI Overshoot before energy shock

April 20, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Gap Closing
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April 20, 2026 1:06 AM UTC

Early Gap Being Filled
U.S. envoy Waltz says strikes remain option ahead of talks

April 17, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Profit taking before weekend
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April 17, 2026 4:46 AM UTC

Trump says war in Iran "should be ending pretty soon"

April 16, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Jobs Market Holding up
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April 16, 2026 2:38 AM UTC

Australian March unemployment rate 4.3%

April 15, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Trump Talking Up
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April 15, 2026 2:59 AM UTC

U.S. blockade of Iranian ports sees compliance
Trump says Iran war: "I view it as very close to over."

April 14, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Waiting for the next leg
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April 14, 2026 2:25 AM UTC

Vance says progress made in Iran talks, sees path to broader deal

April 13, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Trying to Fill the Opening Gap
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April 13, 2026 3:19 AM UTC

The "No Deal" scenarios over the weekend keep market participants fearful