AUD/USD-Commentary

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June 12, 2026

AUD/USD flows: IRGC Tough Talk
Paying Article

June 12, 2026 2:01 AM UTC

IRGC vows "regret-inducing" response

June 11, 2026

AUD/USD flows: More Missiles
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June 11, 2026 4:42 AM UTC

Iran fires missiles at Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain

June 10, 2026

USD flows: Latest tweet, modest reaction with so much noise
Paying Article

June 10, 2026 11:30 AM UTC

Moderate reaction to latest tweet, too much noise and reaction exhaustion
Hardly helpful and adds uncertainty, even if reports suggest the more detailed background work has made headway

USD flows: Noise picking up, still risks of fresh volatility spikes
Paying Article

June 10, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

Market proving phlegmatic but session to session noise is picking up
Oil digests the latest exchanges, equity bars getting longer though off yesterday's spikes
US CPI one of the next key event risk alongside Iran news flow

AUD/USD flows: Missiles Flying Again
Paying Article

June 10, 2026 4:52 AM UTC

U.S.-Iran Keep the Missiles Flying

June 09, 2026

USD flows: Oil off, but so is tech
Paying Article

June 9, 2026 4:40 PM UTC

Tech markets looking to extend the pullback even as oil extends the pullback 

USD flows: Corrective but wary ahead of bigger event risk
Paying Article

June 9, 2026 1:02 PM UTC

Tiptoeing towards reluctant correction of sharp Fri action, but wary into bigger event risk
Still some room to give without cancelling skew

USD flows: Asia risk recovers, but USD not cancelled yet
Paying Article

June 9, 2026 6:32 AM UTC

Kospi manages a strong bounce, S&P future not as convincing yet
USD leaks out but hasn't cancelled breakouts yet

AUD/USD flows: No Sign of Progress
Paying Article

June 9, 2026 4:15 AM UTC

No Sign of Progress in Middle East

June 08, 2026

AUD/USD flows: More Missiles
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June 8, 2026 5:14 AM UTC

Iran says that Israeli strikes have damaged its Karoon Petrochemical complex

June 05, 2026

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY flows: Stretched risk due a pullback?
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June 5, 2026 8:11 AM UTC

Tech stocks showing some signs of running out of near-term gas
Overstretched vs short-term supporting trend, so could be due a technical correction
Something to watch if it spills into metals, volatility 

AUD/USD flows: Risk undecided
Paying Article

June 5, 2026 5:01 AM UTC

Explosion heard near Oman's Mina al Fahal crude terminal

June 04, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Risk undecided
Paying Article

June 4, 2026 5:52 AM UTC

Major equity indexes perform individually

June 03, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Q1 GDP Miss
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June 3, 2026 3:21 AM UTC

Australian Q1 GDP Miss

June 02, 2026

AUD/USD flows: RBA's Harper hawkish
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June 2, 2026 5:41 AM UTC

RBA board member Harper said stronger-than-expected domestic demand and the return of capacity constraints have reopened the output gap
Trump told ABC News a Hormuz ceasefire extension and reopening deal could come within a week

June 01, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Risk Hopeful
Paying Article

June 1, 2026 4:54 AM UTC

Broader risk hopeful without anything concrete

May 29, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Trump Hasn't Signed Yet
Paying Article

May 29, 2026 5:43 AM UTC

Trump hasn't sign the ceasefire deal yet

May 28, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Sentiment Sour
Paying Article

May 28, 2026 3:01 AM UTC

The US has sanctioned Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority

May 27, 2026

NZD/USD flows: RBNZ Hawkish
Paying Article

May 27, 2026 5:53 AM UTC

RBNZ Keep Rates Unchanged with a 4-3 Vote

AUD/USD flows: Headline CPI Moderates, not Core
Paying Article

May 27, 2026 3:58 AM UTC

Australian Headline April CPI moderates to 4.2% from 4.6%

May 26, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Dropping bombs
Paying Article

May 26, 2026 4:44 AM UTC

Rubio says Hormuz will open one way or another
U.S. forces sank two IRGC vessels laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and struck a surface-to-air missile site at Bandar Abbas
Iran launched anti-ship cruise missiles at US Navy assets in response

May 25, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Supported by broader sentiment
Paying Article

May 25, 2026 3:27 AM UTC

Broader Sentiment Upbeat

May 22, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Consolidating Lower
Paying Article

May 22, 2026 5:37 AM UTC

Aussie Consolidates

May 21, 2026

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: Uranium standoff rumbles on
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 10:48 AM UTC

Market prisoner to the headlines intraday
Latest has Iran pushback on enriched uranium. Hard line on both sides leaves deal unresolved. 

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: USD still firm, PMIs in focus
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 6:35 AM UTC

USD remains well supported, AUD softer, EUR may be vulnerable on PMIs

AUD/USD flows: Australian Labor Market Slows
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 3:21 AM UTC

Australia unemployment jumps to 4.5%

May 20, 2026

USD flows: Draft agreement talk forces mkt to hedge
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 3:48 PM UTC

Al Arabiya News claim sees mkt forced to hedge
Many false dawns of course, but clearly the dominant focus now for the next few sessions

AUD/USD flows: No improvement of risk atmosphere
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 4:51 AM UTC

Trump briefed on Iran strike options after pausing attack

May 19, 2026

AUD/USD, EUR/USD flows: Figure breaks
Paying Article

May 19, 2026 3:02 PM UTC

Dollar remains on n/t rise as AUD and EUR dip through figure levels

AUD/USD flows: Sentiment Still Sour
Paying Article

May 19, 2026 4:22 AM UTC

Trump says good chance of Iran deal after Gulf states secure attack pause

May 18, 2026

USD flows: Waiver allows some respite
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Some respite on suggestions of US temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions, before any final agreement
Mkt lifted by some US compromise and apparent responsiveness to fresh energy pressure
Day to day development swing too wildly to get carried away

USD flows: Dollar/EM could be a near-term tell
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 9:02 AM UTC

Looking at dollar price action more broadly suggests it could become the dominant n/t driver
USD/regionals diverse but broadly weak, some becoming unstable
Profit-taking evident even in the strong relative shock / terms-of-trade thematic gainers

AUD/USD flows: Spec positions super-stretched into pullback, GBP trimmed
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 7:25 AM UTC

IMM positions data showed mkt was stretched long AUD into pullback, albeit partly offset on cross
GBP shorts trimmed after positioning into anticipated political event
Overall, mkt was light dollars into any volatility pick up

USD flows: Watching volatility, USD/EM, for pointers (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

FX moves slow into various big figure correction levels, but USD squeeze remains the risk
Watching background pointers such as MOVE, USD/EM for broader risk aversion

AUD/USD flows: Broader Sentiment Sour
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 4:52 AM UTC

Broader Sentiment Sour

May 15, 2026

USD flows: more of the same from US data and shakeout (DXY, AUD, EUR, NOK)
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 1:25 PM UTC

US data shows strength on prices and activity, chipping away at dollar shorts
Backdrop remains skewed to stretched position reductions

USD flows: Feeling the stretch (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 9:47 AM UTC

A clash of themes coming to a head as over-accelerating AI, risk and commodity complex trades run into ongoing Iran standoff and the mini dollar squeeze
The likes of AUD, semiconductors, Kospi, metals, have been overrunning m/t trends, not to maximum excess, but to degrees that are vulnerable to a lo

USD flows: Bit of a dollar squeeze; stretched risk pullback
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 6:57 AM UTC

Dollar squeeze spreads after cable lead; stretched metals and risk mkt pull backs help broaden
Some s/t chart shifts seen, such as in NOK

AUD/USD flows: Market Sours
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 3:56 AM UTC

China foreign ministry says we should reopen Hormuz ASAP

May 13, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Q1 Wage Steady
Paying Article

May 13, 2026 4:15 AM UTC

Australian Q1 wage price index bangs in estimate

May 12, 2026

AUD/USD flows: Mood Sours
Paying Article

May 12, 2026 5:10 AM UTC

Iran is ready to dilute highly enriched uranium to levels of 3.7% and 20%
Trump said the ceasefire is "on life support"

May 11, 2026

EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, GBP flows: Positioning shows little net dollar hedge, Aussie cross stretched (IMM)
Paying Article

May 11, 2026 9:03 AM UTC

Mixed positioning, but market shows little USD hedge overall, still risks being the pain trade? Natural AUD/NZD positioning stretched

AUD/USD flows: Off to a Poor Start
Paying Article

May 11, 2026 1:29 AM UTC

Weekend headlines pessimistic

May 08, 2026

USD, CAD, JPY, EUR flows: USD slightly weaker except against CAD after employment data
Paying Article

May 8, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

Weak Canadina data hits CAD, US data modestly strong but USD weaker elsewhere

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD slightly firm as US and Iran skirmish
Paying Article

May 8, 2026 6:16 AM UTC

Skirmishing between the uS and Iran overnight has had only a modest USD positive and risk negative impact so far, but...

AUD/USD flows: Ceasefire Does not Seem to Hold
Paying Article

May 8, 2026 4:11 AM UTC

UAE says it is responding again to a missile threat

May 07, 2026

USD flows: Little change on US data
Paying Article

May 7, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

US data slightly on the strong side, but little market impact

USD, JPY, EUR flows: Focus on US/Iran deal
Paying Article

May 7, 2026 6:24 AM UTC

Markets await Iran's response to teh US proposal to end hostilities. Market risks may be skewed towards a risk negative response after the moves of the last few days priced in a positive outcome

AUD/USD flows: Risk Shaky Again
Paying Article

May 7, 2026 2:33 AM UTC

Iran to deliver response to U.S. war-ending proposal via Pakistan mediators on Thursday 
Saudi base ban forced Trump to pause Strait of Hormuz shipping operation

May 06, 2026

USD flows: USD little changed after ADP
Paying Article

May 6, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

ADP broadly in line with consensus. USD better bid after early European losses but underlying tone remains weak as long as risk sentiment remains positive. 

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