Published: 2025-01-13T19:29:23.000Z
Preview: Due January 31 - U.S. Q4 Employment Cost Index - Slightly stronger than Q3, but yr/yr pace still slowing
Senior Economist , North America
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We look for the Q4 employment cost index (ECI) to increase by 0.9%, a marginal acceleration from Q2’s 0.8% which was the slowest since Q2 2021, while matching the gain of Q2.
We expect wages and salaries and benefits to both increase by 0.9% after slowing to 0.8% in Q2.
Payroll average hourly earnings and Medical Care CPI have both seen modest accelerations from Q3, though not by enough to raise any significant inflationary alarm.
We expect yr/yr ECI growth to continue a gradual slowing, to 3.8% from 3.9 in Q3, which would be the slowest since Q3 2021. We expect both wages and salaries and benefit costs to rise by 3.8%, the former down from 3.9% in Q2, but the latter up from 3.7%.
