Preview: Due May 14 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Consumers still resilient to headwinds
We expect April retail sales to increase by 0.7% overall with a rise of 0.9% ex autos, but only 0.5% ex autos and gasoline, the latter a marginal slowing from two straight 0.6% increases. Still, consumer spending continues to appear resilient to significant headwinds.
Gasoline prices increased further in April but less sharply than in March when retail sales surged by 1.7%. Auto sales appear to have seen a modest decline after gains in February and March, but remain at a healthy level.
Higher gasoline prices pose risk to real disposable incomes, which has underperformed consumer spending in the last four quarters, though only marginally in Q1. Tax cuts and higher tax refunds are providing some support to consumers.
The Chicago Fed’s CARTS survey looks for a 1.1% increase in April retail sales ex autos, though only a 0.3% increase in real terms. Still, even a modest rise in real terms suggests continued consumer resilience.
