Published: 2023-04-04T13:55:16.000Z
Webinar Recording: You Can Go Your Own Way
Director of Research , Macroeconomics and Strategy
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To view the recording of the Outlook webinar please click here. This covers the main economies and financial market outlooks.
- Divergence is also a key theme and hence our Outlook title for March. Economies can go their own way with the U.S. dominated by the lagged impact of monetary policy and China driven by the reopening. Europe also has monetary policy tightening feedthrough and the prospect of gas and utility prices being much lower than mid-2022. We still look for a borderline recession in the U.S., a three quarter recession in EZ and 5.8% growth in China in 2023.U.S. and EZ headline inflation has peaked and we see the prospect of more downside surprises in EZ than the U.S. China CPI inflation will likely remain controlled. For the Ukraine war the balance of risks has now switched to a frozen conflict rather than the war dragging on into 2024. Meanwhile, Japan will likely increase the 10yr yield cap further to 0.75% in autumn 2023, though we do not see the BOJ abandoning QE with yield curve control.
