Emerging EMEA
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March 25, 2024
EMEA Outlook: Elections Set the Scene in Q2
March 25, 2024 2:00 PM UTC
· Unlike South Africa and Russia, Turkiye continued with tightening monetary policy in Q1 due to stubborn inflation, pressure on FX and reserves. Meanwhile, Russia and South Africa halted their tightening cycles as of 2024 and will likely start cutting interest rates in Q3 depending on how
January 29, 2024
South Africa: Structural Issues to Dominate Long Term Growth
January 29, 2024 9:00 AM UTC
Bottom line: We expect 1.3-1.5% GDP growth in South Africa in the 2025-2030 period. We are concerned with the structural problems affecting economic dynamics negatively, including loadshedding, transportation bottlenecks, and shrinking trade surplus. Despite structural problems; growing population,
November 20, 2023
Ukraine War: Western Support Weakens, Elections on the Horizon, Peace Negotiations Remains Unlikely
November 20, 2023 11:28 AM UTC
As Ukraine counter offensive operations continues without much success, the possibility of a stalemate and frozen conflict increase in the medium term taking into account Russia's continued failure to gain ground in late 2023. What will happen in 2024?
Bottom Line: We foresee a protracted conflict,
November 14, 2023
South Africa: Structural Issues to Dominate Long Term Growth
November 14, 2023 1:07 PM UTC
Bottom line: We expect 1.3-1.5% GDP growth in South Africa in the 2025-2030 period. We are concerned with the structural problems affecting economic dynamics negatively, including loadshedding, transportation bottlenecks, and shrinking trade surplus. Despite structural problems; growing population,
October 31, 2023
October 03, 2023
September 29, 2023
September 28, 2023
September 07, 2023
August 14, 2023
August 07, 2023
Navigating the Path to Peace: Saudi Talks on Ukraine-Russia Conflict
August 7, 2023 10:59 AM UTC
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been a global concern, with efforts continuously being made to find a peaceful resolution. In a recent development, Saudi Arabia hosted a summit in Jeddah last week that brought together top officials from around 40 countries, including key players
August 02, 2023
U.S. and EZ Government Bond Yields and Peaking Rates
August 2, 2023 7:52 AM UTC
Bottom Line: We feel that the Fed is getting close to peaking and the ECB has already peaked with the July rate hike. However, this is already priced into 2yr yields, with the current discount to policy rates, and we see 2yr U.S. Treasuries and Bunds to 4.8% and 3.05% by end 2023 respectively. Inver
July 27, 2023
EM Divergent Rate Hikes and Coming Cuts
July 27, 2023 7:54 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Major EM government bond spreads have narrowed versus the U.S. (Figure 1), as inflation in EM countries has moved closer to their target. Some further narrowing should be evident, but this will likely be modest as EM policy easing will likely be gradual in the remainder of 2023 and into