Preview: Due May 15 - U.S. April Retail Sales - Autos to correct lower, but underlying momentum to persist
After a strong 1.5% increase in March, we expect retail sales to rise by only 0.1% in April, though gains of 0.4% ex autos and 0.5% ex autos and gasoline should show that the consumer still has some underlying momentum, despite plunging consumer confidence.
Auto sales saw a strong increase in March that appears to have been due to pre-emptive buying ahead of expected tariffs. Industry data shows that auto sales remained firm in April, but did see a modest correction from March’s bounce.
A 0.4% increase ex autos would be slower than February and March, but still a third straight solid gain after a weather-depressed January.
Gasoline is likely to be a marginal negative after having been a more significant negative in March as prices slipped. We expect sales ex auto and gasoline to rise by 0.5% after a strong March rise of 0.9%.
In addition to autos, building materials and eating and drinking places are likely to see corrections from strong March gains. Elsewhere however data is likely to look quite firm, with several components likely to be supported by attempts to beat tariff-induced price hikes.
