U.S. Initial Claims rise may be weather-related, but layoff announcements higher in January
Initial claims at 231 from 209k are higher than expected and the highest since December 6. Bad weather may have contributed to the increase, The latest week comes two weeks after January’s non-farm payroll was surveyed.
The initial claims 4-week average stands at 212.25k, a second straight increase from a low of 204k that came in the payroll survey week. The 4-week average was 217.5k in December’s survey week and 224.75k in November’s.
Continued claims cover the week before initial claims and increased to 1.844m from 1.819m, still lower than expected, with the preceding week revised down from 1.827m, reaching its lowest level since October 2024. The 4-week average is also the lowest since October 2024.
While initial claims, despite the latest rise, still present a healthy picture, that contrasts a sharp rise in January layoffs data from Challenger, Gray and Christmas, with the total number of layoffs at 108,435 being up from 49,795 in January 2025 and the highest for a January since the financial crisis in January 2029. Transport, technology and health care led the increase. Layoff announcements are unlikely to be weather-related,