EUR/CHF, USD/CHF flows: CHF back to Yesterday Highs

EUR/CHF has moved back down to yesterday lows and helped to provide strength for the CHF across the board.  However, it is difficult to see the move lasting fundamentally.  Though the SNB is expected to cut rates less than the ECB next year, the SNB decision to stop FX sales at the December meeting is more important.  This force that kept the CHF strong in 2023, will not be repeated in 2024.  Meanwhile, global markets are risk on, which is normally CHF negative when it is overvalued.  Finally, IMF COFER data shows no sign of reserve shifts into CHF from USD, with foreign central banks holding a mere USD20bln in Q3 2023.  The CHF looks overdone versus the EUR, but the charts suggest an extension can be seen to 0.9200 before a consolidation.  The SNB could also protest in the new year with CHF sales versus EUR.