U.S. Initial Claims at a low level between two bouts of bad weather
Initial claims at 212k are up from 208k in the preceding week (the latter revised up from 206k) but remain low and below the preceding two weeks that were probably lifted by bad weather. Bad weather may lift next week’s data, but the underlying picture looks quite healthy.
The survey week for February’s non-farm payroll came last week, at a time when weather as back to normal after a cold spell in late January and early February. The cold spell is lifting the 4-week average, which stands at 220.25k this week, up from 219.5k in February’s payroll survey week and 204k in January’s survey eek but little changed from 217.5k in December’s.
The message is that February payrolls are likely to be significantly slower than an improved January but not sharply below recent trend. A current spell of cold weather may have faded by the time March’s payroll is surveyed, though both February’s and March’s payrolls may be restrained somewhat by weather. The Presidents’ Day holiday does not seem to have had a major influence on this week’s data.
Continued claims cover the week before initial claims and fell to 1.833m from 1.864m, reaching a 4-week low. The 4-week average at 1.8475m is marginally up from 1.844m but that week was the lowest since October 2024. Continued claims, like initial claims, suggest that the labor market is holding up.
