USD flows: Shutdown postpones January non-farm payroll
While House Majority leader Johnson is still optimistic about getting the partial government shutdown resolved tomorrow (Tuesday), the Labor Department has no stated that the shutdown has already lasted long enough to cause Friday’s non-farm payroll to be delayed.
The payroll release will be released when the government reopens, and if that is soon payrolls will presumably be seen next week. Also to be delayed are the JOLTS report on labor turnover due tomorrow and presumably initial claims due on Thursday. Also at risk of delay are next week’s Q4 Employment Cost Index due on Tuesday February 10 and January’s CPI due on Wednesday February 11.
Markets, encouraged by firm ISM manufacturing data and a US-India trade deal, are largely ignoring the issue, still assuming that the shutdown will be brief. If Johnson gets the bill passed, the Labor Dep’t will be funded through September 30. He is currently trying to get it passed through Republican votes alone, though he can afford only one defection. If that fails, he will need democratic votes, which will take more time, though eventual approval is likely.