GBP/USD-Commentary

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May 22, 2026

EUR flows: Steady after IFO and INSEE surveys
Paying Article

May 22, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

IFO and INSEE both slightly stronger thna expected, but underlying picture in Europe still weak

GBP flows: GBP marginally softer after UK data
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May 22, 2026 6:24 AM UTC

UK retail sales soft and borrowing higher but GBP only slightly softer. But medium term risks on the downside

May 21, 2026

USD flows: USD to stay firm after solid PMI
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 2:10 PM UTC

US S&P PMI solid suggesting upside risks vs Europe

USD flows: USD firm as yields rise
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 1:15 PM UTC

USD firmer as yields rise and equities fall despite neutral data

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: Uranium standoff rumbles on
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 10:48 AM UTC

Market prisoner to the headlines intraday
Latest has Iran pushback on enriched uranium. Hard line on both sides leaves deal unresolved. 

GBP, EUR flows: UK PMI Matches 2023 and 2025 low
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 8:38 AM UTC

EUR and GBP both holding up remarkably well despite very weak PMIs, but risks remain on the downside

EUR flows: Eurozone PMI lowest since November 2023
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 8:07 AM UTC

EUR vulnerable after weak PMI

EUR flows: Weak French PMI pulling EUR lower
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May 21, 2026 7:53 AM UTC

EUR dipping after very weak French PMI

USD, JPY, EUR, AUD flows: USD still firm, PMIs in focus
Paying Article

May 21, 2026 6:35 AM UTC

USD remains well supported, AUD softer, EUR may be vulnerable on PMIs

May 20, 2026

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: BoE TSC cementing summer re-pricing
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

Comments so far from BoE TSC largely go with the grain of the summer wait and see
Mkt has priced back its overly aggressive hike odds for June-July

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: CPI lower, but focus elsewhere
Paying Article

May 20, 2026 6:43 AM UTC

UK CPI below market showing core retreat, albeit stronger PPI highlighting Iran cost pressures
USD focus more of politics, geopolitics, yields and tech risk performance

May 19, 2026

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: Still a nervy mkt, UK data soft
Paying Article

May 19, 2026 7:01 AM UTC

UK data overall soft, supports a cautious approach from the BoE
Even with the more positive, but erratic, Iran comments, mkt still edgy
Dual focus on the recent tech pullback, and upcoming earnings 

May 18, 2026

USD flows: Waiver allows some respite
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May 18, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Some respite on suggestions of US temporary waiver on Iran oil sanctions, before any final agreement
Mkt lifted by some US compromise and apparent responsiveness to fresh energy pressure
Day to day development swing too wildly to get carried away

AUD/USD flows: Spec positions super-stretched into pullback, GBP trimmed
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 7:25 AM UTC

IMM positions data showed mkt was stretched long AUD into pullback, albeit partly offset on cross
GBP shorts trimmed after positioning into anticipated political event
Overall, mkt was light dollars into any volatility pick up

USD flows: Watching volatility, USD/EM, for pointers (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
Paying Article

May 18, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

FX moves slow into various big figure correction levels, but USD squeeze remains the risk
Watching background pointers such as MOVE, USD/EM for broader risk aversion

May 15, 2026

USD flows: more of the same from US data and shakeout (DXY, AUD, EUR, NOK)
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 1:25 PM UTC

US data shows strength on prices and activity, chipping away at dollar shorts
Backdrop remains skewed to stretched position reductions

USD flows: Feeling the stretch (DXY, AUD, EUR, GBP)
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 9:47 AM UTC

A clash of themes coming to a head as over-accelerating AI, risk and commodity complex trades run into ongoing Iran standoff and the mini dollar squeeze
The likes of AUD, semiconductors, Kospi, metals, have been overrunning m/t trends, not to maximum excess, but to degrees that are vulnerable to a lo

USD flows: Bit of a dollar squeeze; stretched risk pullback
Paying Article

May 15, 2026 6:57 AM UTC

Dollar squeeze spreads after cable lead; stretched metals and risk mkt pull backs help broaden
Some s/t chart shifts seen, such as in NOK

May 14, 2026

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows: Streeting resignation no surprise, retail sales resilient
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

Streeting resigns, hopes Starmer falls on his sword
Retail sales resilient but around expectation
Mkt still struggling for traction

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: Better Q1 GDP old news, more leadership positioning
Paying Article

May 14, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

Rayner announces HMRC 'all clear' ready to enter the fray, still waiting on the kick off
Mar GDP better end to UK Q1 but Q2 seen flagging
Risk rally and key US yields levels provide the broader backdrop

May 13, 2026

EUR/USD GBP/USD flows: PPI upside goes with the grain of cable slippage
Paying Article

May 13, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

Upside PPI prints see cable pressed through 1.35

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: challenge still in the works?
Paying Article

May 13, 2026 11:10 AM UTC

Reports suggest imminent challenge still in the works

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: event risk focus as odds of UK PM departure lengthen; US-China meetings kick off
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May 13, 2026 7:04 AM UTC

Iran rhetoric and lack of progress, US-China meeting kick off
UK PM exit tone less febrile, chances of departure drop off

May 12, 2026

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Having another stab at the 'political short' trade
Paying Article

May 12, 2026 7:44 AM UTC

Gilts spike at open after further news of Labour push to replace Starmer
Technicals had already suggested some scope for GBP correction
That said, the narrative is a bit one-dimensional, and there is already short spec positioning

May 08, 2026

USD, CAD, JPY, EUR flows: USD slightly weaker except against CAD after employment data
Paying Article

May 8, 2026 1:07 PM UTC

Weak Canadina data hits CAD, US data modestly strong but USD weaker elsewhere

USD, JPY, EUR flows: USD slightly firm as US and Iran skirmish
Paying Article

May 8, 2026 6:16 AM UTC

Skirmishing between the uS and Iran overnight has had only a modest USD positive and risk negative impact so far, but...

May 07, 2026

USD flows: Little change on US data
Paying Article

May 7, 2026 1:05 PM UTC

US data slightly on the strong side, but little market impact

USD, JPY, EUR flows: Focus on US/Iran deal
Paying Article

May 7, 2026 6:24 AM UTC

Markets await Iran's response to teh US proposal to end hostilities. Market risks may be skewed towards a risk negative response after the moves of the last few days priced in a positive outcome

May 06, 2026

USD flows: USD little changed after ADP
Paying Article

May 6, 2026 12:28 PM UTC

ADP broadly in line with consensus. USD better bid after early European losses but underlying tone remains weak as long as risk sentiment remains positive. 

SEK, USD, JPY flows: SEK softer on weaker CPI, USD falls, JPY gains on suspected intervention
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May 6, 2026 6:40 AM UTC

SEK dips as CPI comes out weaker than expected - further decline possible. USD generally softer on hopes of US/Iran deal. JPY surges on suspected intervention.

May 05, 2026

USD, JPY, AUD flows: Risk positive tone persists, US trade data much a expected
Paying Article

May 5, 2026 12:42 PM UTC

Riskier currencies continue to rally after early dip, JPY weakness remains

USD, JPY flows: JPY soft as risk recovers, but...
Paying Article

May 5, 2026 8:47 AM UTC

Riskier currencies rally after early dip, JPY weakness remains

USD flows: Mild USD bid as US and Iran skirmish
Paying Article

May 5, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

USD seeing modest bid as US and Iran skirmish with AUD slipping lower

April 30, 2026

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: BOE Not More Hawkish
Paying Article

April 30, 2026 11:14 AM UTC

No initial reaction from GBP to the BOE statement and minutes. 

February 13, 2026

USD flows: Supreme Court decision on tariffs possible on February 20, but not certain
Paying Article

February 13, 2026 5:34 PM UTC

The Supreme Court has scheduled February 20 as a day for announcements. There is no certainty on which cases will see decisions announced for, but a ruling on the Trump reciprocal tariffs is a clear possibility.

February 11, 2026

EUR/USD, GBP/USD USD/JPY flows: USD bounces except versus JPY
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February 11, 2026 1:49 PM UTC

USD has pushed higher against DM currencies except the JPY, after the stronger than expected January employment report (130k NFP and 4.3% unemployment). 

February 05, 2026

EUR/GBP and GBP/USD flows: March cut and then more
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February 5, 2026 12:10 PM UTC

GBP has sold off after the surprise 5-4 vote at the BOE meeting, as most had expected a non-event and maybe 1-2 members voting for a cut. 

February 02, 2026

USD flows: Shutdown postpones January non-farm payroll
Paying Article

February 2, 2026 6:26 PM UTC

While House Majority leader Johnson is still optimistic about getting the partial government shutdown resolved tomorrow (Tuesday), the Labor Department has no stated that the shutdown has already lasted long enough to  cause Friday’s non-farm payroll to be delayed.

USD flows: Shutdown politics and economic data
Paying Article

February 2, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

The US government is now in a partial shutdown which is expected to be resolved fairly soon, but probably only for two weeks. The December JOLTS report on labor turnover due on Tuesday February 3 may be delayed, but initial claims on Thursday February 5 and the key January non-farm payroll on Friday

January 20, 2026

USD flows: Repeat of reciprocal tariff sell off?
Paying Article

January 20, 2026 8:48 AM UTC

USD generally weaker as Greenland spat revives memories of USD sell off on reciprocal tariff announcement last April

GBP flows: Slightly firmer after labour market data
Paying Article

January 20, 2026 8:04 AM UTC

GBP up after broadly neutral labour market data

January 15, 2026

USD flows: USD buoyed by solid data
Paying Article

January 15, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

USD continues to gain on solid US data

GBP flows: GBP up on stronger than expected GDP
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January 15, 2026 7:41 AM UTC

GBP up modestly after stronger than expected November GDP

January 12, 2026

USD flows: Markets calm despite risks to Fed independence
Paying Article

January 12, 2026 7:32 PM UTC

The market reaction to the Dep’t of Justice investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has been muted, with Trump still facing several obstacles to gaining control of the Fed.

January 09, 2026

USD. CAD flows: US employment report slightly softer, Canadian report in line
Paying Article

January 9, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

USD edges lower after employment report

January 08, 2026

USD flows: US data USD supportive
Paying Article

January 8, 2026 2:00 PM UTC

Jobless claims, Challenger job cuts and US trade data all USD positive

January 07, 2026

USD flows: USD gains slightly on ISM
Paying Article

January 7, 2026 1:36 PM UTC

USD slightly firmer on stroner than expected non-manufacturing ISM

December 30, 2025

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Trump and Ukraine/Taiwan
Paying Article

December 30, 2025 12:45 PM UTC

President Donald Trump comments yesterday are attracting some attention.

December 29, 2025

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP: BOE to Deliver Weaker GBP v EUR
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December 29, 2025 7:00 PM UTC

We see EUR/GBP to 0.90 by end 2026, but 1.3330 on GBP/USD due to a slightly weaker USD v EUR. 

December 23, 2025

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP: No Reaction of Some Cabinet Members Wanting EU Customs Entry
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December 23, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

GBP is edging higher again against the EUR on Tuesday.