GBP/USD-Commentary

February 13, 2026

USD flows: Supreme Court decision on tariffs possible on February 20, but not certain

February 13, 2026 5:34 PM UTC

The Supreme Court has scheduled February 20 as a day for announcements. There is no certainty on which cases will see decisions announced for, but a ruling on the Trump reciprocal tariffs is a clear possibility.

February 11, 2026

EUR/USD, GBP/USD USD/JPY flows: USD bounces except versus JPY

February 11, 2026 1:49 PM UTC

USD has pushed higher against DM currencies except the JPY, after the stronger than expected January employment report (130k NFP and 4.3% unemployment).

February 05, 2026

EUR/GBP and GBP/USD flows: March cut and then more

February 5, 2026 12:10 PM UTC

GBP has sold off after the surprise 5-4 vote at the BOE meeting, as most had expected a non-event and maybe 1-2 members voting for a cut.

February 02, 2026

USD flows: Shutdown postpones January non-farm payroll

February 2, 2026 6:26 PM UTC

While House Majority leader Johnson is still optimistic about getting the partial government shutdown resolved tomorrow (Tuesday), the Labor Department has no stated that the shutdown has already lasted long enough to cause Friday’s non-farm payroll to be delayed.

USD flows: Shutdown politics and economic data

February 2, 2026 1:39 PM UTC

The US government is now in a partial shutdown which is expected to be resolved fairly soon, but probably only for two weeks. The December JOLTS report on labor turnover due on Tuesday February 3 may be delayed, but initial claims on Thursday February 5 and the key January non-farm payroll on Friday

January 20, 2026

USD flows: Repeat of reciprocal tariff sell off?

January 20, 2026 8:48 AM UTC

USD generally weaker as Greenland spat revives memories of USD sell off on reciprocal tariff announcement last April

GBP flows: Slightly firmer after labour market data

January 20, 2026 8:04 AM UTC

GBP up after broadly neutral labour market data

January 15, 2026

USD flows: USD buoyed by solid data

January 15, 2026 2:09 PM UTC

USD continues to gain on solid US data

GBP flows: GBP up on stronger than expected GDP

January 15, 2026 7:41 AM UTC

GBP up modestly after stronger than expected November GDP

January 12, 2026

USD flows: Markets calm despite risks to Fed independence

January 12, 2026 7:32 PM UTC

The market reaction to the Dep’t of Justice investigation of Fed Chairman Powell has been muted, with Trump still facing several obstacles to gaining control of the Fed.

January 09, 2026

USD. CAD flows: US employment report slightly softer, Canadian report in line

January 9, 2026 1:51 PM UTC

USD edges lower after employment report

January 08, 2026

USD flows: US data USD supportive

January 8, 2026 2:00 PM UTC

Jobless claims, Challenger job cuts and US trade data all USD positive

January 07, 2026

USD flows: USD gains slightly on ISM

January 7, 2026 1:36 PM UTC

USD slightly firmer on stroner than expected non-manufacturing ISM

December 30, 2025

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Trump and Ukraine/Taiwan

December 30, 2025 12:45 PM UTC

President Donald Trump comments yesterday are attracting some attention.

December 29, 2025

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP: BOE to Deliver Weaker GBP v EUR

December 29, 2025 7:00 PM UTC

We see EUR/GBP to 0.90 by end 2026, but 1.3330 on GBP/USD due to a slightly weaker USD v EUR.

December 23, 2025

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP: No Reaction of Some Cabinet Members Wanting EU Customs Entry

December 23, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

GBP is edging higher again against the EUR on Tuesday.

December 22, 2025

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP: GBP by Dimming BOE Cut Prospects

December 22, 2025 10:20 AM UTC

GBP has gained ground versus the USD and EUR in Europe.

December 19, 2025

GBP, JPY flows: GBP little changed after retail sales, JPY weak

December 19, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

UK retail sales flattish in November, much as expected. GBP little changed. JPY weak despite higher JPY yields

December 18, 2025

USD flows: USD slips on weaker CPI

December 18, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

Weaker than expected US October/November CPI triggers USD sell off

GBP flows: GBP firmer as BoE hawks hold firm

December 18, 2025 12:17 PM UTC

GBP firmer as BoE cuts but remains gradualist

December 17, 2025

GBP flows: GBP weaker after soft CPI

December 17, 2025 7:33 AM UTC

Much weaker than expected CPI data increases scope for BoE easing, GBP to fall further

December 12, 2025

GBP flows: GBP lower after weak October GDP

December 12, 2025 7:35 AM UTC

GBP lower after October GDP falls 0.1%

December 09, 2025

GBP flows: GBP edges lower after BoE comments

December 9, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

EUR/GBP a little higher but still broadly steady after BoE testimony

December 05, 2025

USD flows: USD edges up on slighty better UoM survey

December 5, 2025 3:14 PM UTC

UoM confidence a little stronger than expected in December, but still at very low levels

November 27, 2025

AUD, JPY, GBP flows: AUD and JPY look value based on yields, GBP gains on Budget unreliable

November 27, 2025 7:52 AM UTC

AUD and JPY represent value based on yield spreads. GBP gains on UK Budget reflect improved forecasts rather than positive measures

November 26, 2025

GBP flows: GBP rallies on UK Budget, but due to forecasts more than measures

November 26, 2025 2:12 PM UTC

GBP gains helped by reduced risk premium as OBR forecasts better tax take due to higher wages and inflation, despite lower productivity growth. But GBP outlook still mildly negative longer term

GBP flows: GBP softer on leaked Budget details

November 26, 2025 12:32 PM UTC

GBP softer as leaked budget details suggest back loaded tax increases

November 24, 2025

USD, EUR, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: Mild risk positive tone on Fed, Ukraine

November 24, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

JPY and CHF weaker, EUR firmer. More risk positive tone on Ukraine peace and Fed easing hopes. AUD upside potential

November 21, 2025

EUR, GBP flows: GBP under pressure after weaker PMIs

November 21, 2025 10:08 AM UTC

GBP under pressure after weaker PMIs

November 20, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly softer after mixed employment report

November 20, 2025 1:43 PM UTC

Employment report mixed despite stronger than expected rise in payrolls. Mild USD negative reaction seems unlikely to persist

November 19, 2025

GBP flows: UK CPI data marginally on the soft side

November 19, 2025 7:25 AM UTC

GBP a tad weaker as core CPI rises slightly less than expected

November 14, 2025

GBP flows: GBP stabilises despite gilt sell off

November 14, 2025 9:47 AM UTC

GBP steadies despite sharp gilt sell off on report that Chancellor Reeves has abandned plans for an income tax increase

GBP, CHF flows: GBP falls on report tax hikes abandoned, CHF strength extends

November 14, 2025 7:56 AM UTC

GBP falling back as FT reports that Chancellor Reeves has abandined plans to raise income tax in the November 26 budget. CHF strength extends with EUR/CHF retesting 0.92 level on optimism on tariff reduction.

GBP/USD Flows: UK drops income-tax hike plans ahead of November budget

November 14, 2025 1:33 AM UTC

UK drops income-tax hike plans ahead of November budget

November 13, 2025

GBP flows: GBP falls on weak GDP, but...

November 13, 2025 7:32 AM UTC

GBP declines as GDP comes in weaker than expected, but weakness largely due to cyberattack so likely to be reversed

November 12, 2025

JPY, GBP flows: JPY sells off again, GBP under pressure

November 12, 2025 7:39 AM UTC

JPY sells off as equities firm, intervention threat increases. GBP downside risks on weak data and political uncertianty

November 06, 2025

GBP flows: GBP weaker as BoE MPC vote 5-4 for no change in rates

November 6, 2025 12:13 PM UTC

GBP lower after 4 MPC members vote for a rate cut. Yesterday's 0.8830 high in EUR/GBP a target

October 29, 2025

GBP flows: GBP suffering from expected productivity downgrade

October 29, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

EUR/GBP extends gains to new highs for the year as OBR expected to reduce prodictivity growth projection.

October 24, 2025

USD flows: USD recovered after PMIs

October 24, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

USD recovered post-CPI losses helped by strong PMI

USD flows: USD lower on CPI

October 24, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

USD generally lower, AUD outperforming

EUR, GBP flows: GBP recovers slightly after UK PMI

October 24, 2025 8:42 AM UTC

EUR/GBP slips back after UK PMI following gains after stronger Eurozone data

GBP flows: GBP edges higher after stronger than expected retail sales

October 24, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

GBP firmer after stronger than expected retail sales

October 22, 2025

GBP flows: GBP dips sharply on weaker than expected CPI

October 22, 2025 7:10 AM UTC

Weaker UK CPI increases chance of earlier UK rate cut and pushes EUR/GBP higher

October 20, 2025

USD, JPY flows: Steady to mild risk positive tone

October 20, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

Mildly more risk positive picture, but uncertainty remains. Likely Takaichi PM appointment offset by some BoJ hawkishness

October 17, 2025

USD, JPY, CHF flows: USD lower versus safe havens on risk negative trade

October 17, 2025 7:01 AM UTC

US banking concerns trigger USD declines, especially against safe havens. JPY has scope for further gains.

October 16, 2025

GBP, USD flows: Little impact from UK GDP, USD steady

October 16, 2025 6:56 AM UTC

GBP marginally softer after August GDP comes in as expected. USD stable

October 14, 2025

USD flows: Little impact from NFIB, but...

October 14, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

NFIB survey weaker, but price index higher

GBP flows: GBP lower after mixed labour market data

October 14, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

EUR/GBP gains 20 pips after labour market data, but earnings growth remains too high for comfort

September 29, 2025

USD, GBP flows: USD edging lower on shutdown concerns, GBP firmer

September 29, 2025 6:31 AM UTC

USD softer as government shutdown looms. GBP edging up

September 23, 2025

USD flows: US PMI has little impact

September 23, 2025 1:49 PM UTC

US S&P PMI marginally weaker than expected, but no market impact