GBP/USD-Commentary

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December 30, 2025

EUR/USD, USD/JPY flows: Trump and Ukraine/Taiwan
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December 30, 2025 12:45 PM UTC

President Donald Trump comments yesterday are attracting some attention.

December 29, 2025

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP: BOE to Deliver Weaker GBP v EUR
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December 29, 2025 7:00 PM UTC

We see EUR/GBP to 0.90 by end 2026, but 1.3330 on GBP/USD due to a slightly weaker USD v EUR. 

December 23, 2025

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP: No Reaction of Some Cabinet Members Wanting EU Customs Entry
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December 23, 2025 10:05 AM UTC

GBP is edging higher again against the EUR on Tuesday. 

December 22, 2025

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP: GBP by Dimming BOE Cut Prospects
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December 22, 2025 10:20 AM UTC

GBP has gained ground versus the USD and EUR in Europe.

December 19, 2025

GBP, JPY flows: GBP little changed after retail sales, JPY weak
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December 19, 2025 7:48 AM UTC

UK retail sales flattish in November, much as expected. GBP little changed. JPY weak despite higher JPY yields

December 18, 2025

USD flows: USD slips on weaker CPI
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December 18, 2025 1:56 PM UTC

Weaker than expected US October/November CPI triggers USD sell off

GBP flows: GBP firmer as BoE hawks hold firm
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December 18, 2025 12:17 PM UTC

GBP firmer as BoE cuts but remains gradualist

December 17, 2025

GBP flows: GBP weaker after soft CPI
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December 17, 2025 7:33 AM UTC

Much weaker than expected CPI data increases scope for BoE easing, GBP to fall further

December 12, 2025

GBP flows: GBP lower after weak October GDP
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December 12, 2025 7:35 AM UTC

GBP lower after October GDP falls 0.1%

December 09, 2025

GBP flows: GBP edges lower after BoE comments
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December 9, 2025 3:25 PM UTC

EUR/GBP a little higher but still broadly steady after BoE testimony

December 05, 2025

USD flows: USD edges up on slighty better UoM survey
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December 5, 2025 3:14 PM UTC

UoM confidence a little stronger than expected in December, but still at very low levels

November 27, 2025

AUD, JPY, GBP flows: AUD and JPY look value based on yields, GBP gains on Budget unreliable
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November 27, 2025 7:52 AM UTC

AUD and JPY represent value based on yield spreads. GBP gains on UK Budget reflect improved forecasts rather than positive measures 

November 26, 2025

GBP flows: GBP rallies on UK Budget, but due to forecasts more than measures
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November 26, 2025 2:12 PM UTC

GBP gains helped by reduced risk premium as OBR forecasts better tax take due to higher wages and inflation, despite lower productivity growth. But GBP outlook still mildly negative longer term

GBP flows: GBP softer on leaked Budget details
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November 26, 2025 12:32 PM UTC

GBP softer as leaked budget details suggest back loaded tax increases

November 24, 2025

USD, EUR, AUD, JPY, CHF flows: Mild risk positive tone on Fed, Ukraine
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November 24, 2025 7:59 AM UTC

JPY and CHF weaker, EUR firmer. More risk positive tone on Ukraine peace and Fed easing hopes. AUD upside potential

November 21, 2025

EUR, GBP flows: GBP under pressure after weaker PMIs
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November 21, 2025 10:08 AM UTC

GBP under pressure after weaker PMIs

November 20, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly softer after mixed employment report
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November 20, 2025 1:43 PM UTC

Employment report mixed despite stronger than expected rise in payrolls. Mild USD negative reaction seems unlikely to persist

November 19, 2025

GBP flows: UK CPI data marginally on the soft side
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November 19, 2025 7:25 AM UTC

GBP a tad weaker as core CPI rises slightly less than expected

November 14, 2025

GBP flows: GBP stabilises despite gilt sell off
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November 14, 2025 9:47 AM UTC

GBP steadies despite sharp gilt sell off on report that Chancellor Reeves has abandned plans for an income tax increase

GBP, CHF flows: GBP falls on report tax hikes abandoned, CHF strength extends
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November 14, 2025 7:56 AM UTC

GBP falling back as FT reports that Chancellor Reeves has abandined plans to raise income tax in the November 26 budget. CHF strength extends with EUR/CHF retesting 0.92 level on optimism on tariff reduction.

GBP/USD Flows: UK drops income-tax hike plans ahead of November budget
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November 14, 2025 1:33 AM UTC

UK drops income-tax hike plans ahead of November budget

November 13, 2025

GBP flows: GBP falls on weak GDP, but...
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November 13, 2025 7:32 AM UTC

GBP declines as GDP comes in weaker than expected, but weakness largely due to cyberattack so likely to be reversed

November 12, 2025

JPY, GBP flows: JPY sells off again, GBP under pressure
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November 12, 2025 7:39 AM UTC

JPY sells off as equities firm, intervention threat increases. GBP downside risks on weak data and political uncertianty

November 06, 2025

GBP flows: GBP weaker as BoE MPC vote 5-4 for no change in rates
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November 6, 2025 12:13 PM UTC

GBP lower after 4 MPC members vote for a rate cut. Yesterday's 0.8830 high in EUR/GBP a target

October 29, 2025

GBP flows: GBP suffering from expected productivity downgrade
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October 29, 2025 8:10 AM UTC

EUR/GBP extends gains to new highs for the year as OBR expected to reduce prodictivity growth projection.

October 24, 2025

USD flows: USD recovered after PMIs
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October 24, 2025 2:15 PM UTC

USD recovered post-CPI losses helped by strong PMI

USD flows: USD lower on CPI
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October 24, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

USD generally lower, AUD outperforming

EUR, GBP flows: GBP recovers slightly after UK PMI
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October 24, 2025 8:42 AM UTC

EUR/GBP slips back after UK PMI following gains after stronger Eurozone data

GBP flows: GBP edges higher after stronger than expected retail sales
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October 24, 2025 6:43 AM UTC

GBP firmer after stronger than expected retail sales 

October 22, 2025

GBP flows: GBP dips sharply on weaker than expected CPI
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October 22, 2025 7:10 AM UTC

Weaker UK CPI increases chance of earlier UK rate cut and pushes EUR/GBP higher

October 20, 2025

USD, JPY flows: Steady to mild risk positive tone
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October 20, 2025 6:45 AM UTC

Mildly more risk positive picture, but uncertainty remains. Likely Takaichi PM appointment offset by some BoJ hawkishness

October 17, 2025

USD, JPY, CHF flows: USD lower versus safe havens on risk negative trade
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October 17, 2025 7:01 AM UTC

US banking concerns trigger USD declines, especially against safe havens. JPY has scope for further gains.

October 16, 2025

GBP, USD flows: Little impact from UK GDP, USD steady
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October 16, 2025 6:56 AM UTC

GBP marginally softer after August GDP comes in as expected. USD stable

October 14, 2025

USD flows: Little impact from NFIB, but...
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October 14, 2025 12:49 PM UTC

NFIB survey weaker, but price index higher

GBP flows: GBP lower after mixed labour market data
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October 14, 2025 6:39 AM UTC

EUR/GBP gains 20 pips after labour market data, but earnings growth remains too high for comfort

September 29, 2025

USD, GBP flows: USD edging lower on shutdown concerns, GBP firmer
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September 29, 2025 6:31 AM UTC

USD softer as government shutdown looms. GBP edging up

September 23, 2025

USD flows: US PMI has little impact
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September 23, 2025 1:49 PM UTC

US S&P PMI marginally weaker than expected, but no market impact

GBP, EUR flows: Weaker UK PMI triggers GBP decline
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September 23, 2025 8:49 AM UTC

UK PMI dips, triggering GBP losses, but data is unreliable. Year's high in EUR/GBP at 0.8763 should hold

September 19, 2025

GBP flows: GBP weaker as public borrowing increases
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September 19, 2025 6:32 AM UTC

Rise in PSNB dominates modest strength in retail sales

September 18, 2025

USD flows: US data USD supportive
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September 18, 2025 12:47 PM UTC

Decline in jobless claims and stronger Philadelhia Fed survey USD supportive.

GBP flows: GBP marginally weaker after MPC leaves rates unchanged
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September 18, 2025 11:17 AM UTC

BoE decision contains few surprises, but risks remain to the GBP downside

September 17, 2025

GBP flows: GBP little changed after marginally softer than expected CPI
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September 17, 2025 6:30 AM UTC

UK CPI marginally softer than expected as air fares reverse July gains. GBP little changed but EUR/GBP close to the top of the range

September 16, 2025

USD, CAD flows: USD slightly firmer, CAD little changed after data
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September 16, 2025 12:54 PM UTC

US retail sales on the strong side, halting the USD's slide. Canadian CPI in line on the core

GBP, USD flows: GBP little changed after UK data
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September 16, 2025 6:37 AM UTC

GBP unchanged after UK labour market data in line with consensus

September 05, 2025

GBP flows: GBP slightly firmer after retail sales
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September 5, 2025 6:35 AM UTC

UK retail sales much as expected after significant revisions, GBP a little firmer

September 04, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly firmer on ISM, but...
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September 4, 2025 2:16 PM UTC

ISM services headline strong, but employment still weak

USD flows: USD slightly firmer despite softer data
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September 4, 2025 12:51 PM UTC

ADP and initial claims both suggest mild labor market weakness, but USD resilient

August 20, 2025

GBP flows: EUR/GBP lower after CPI, but support at 0.86
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August 20, 2025 6:26 AM UTC

GBP gains from higher than expected CPI, but scope for gains modest as market already prices minimal BoE easing

August 14, 2025

GBP flows: GBP gains on better than expected GDP
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August 14, 2025 6:16 AM UTC

Better than expected June and Q2 UK GDP suggests scope for EUR/GBP to test 0.86 

August 12, 2025

USD flows: USD slightly lower on broadly neutral data
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August 12, 2025 12:40 PM UTC

US CPI data broadly as expected, with core a tad firm. USD generally lower