Preview: Due May 5 - U.S. March Trade Balance - Wider goods deficit to be partly offset by rise in services surplus
We expect a March trade deficit of $60.4bn, up from $57.3bn in February. We expect gains of 1.5% in exports and 2.1% in imports, extending respective February gains of 4.2% and 4.3% respectively.
Advance goods data has already been released showing gains of 2.5% in exports and 3.3% in imports. Expects were mostly strong but consumer goods were an exception. Autos were particularly strong in a broad based gain in imports. This would leave a goods deficit of $89.0bn, up from $84.6bn in February.
We expect service exports to fall by 0.3% and service imports to fall by 2.1%, each after three straight gains. Our forecast for services is consistent with the assumptions in the advance Q1 GDP data. This would see the services surplus rise to $28.6bn, up from $$27.3bn in February and the highest since August 2025.
