Published: 2024-06-06T12:25:33.000Z
EUR flows: ECB 25bps, but Inflation Forecast up
Director of Research , Macroeconomics and Strategy
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The EUR has rallied after the expected 25bps cut, as bond yields have drifted higher as they are focused on the upward revision for 2025 inflation from 2.0% to 2.2%.
Additionally, the bond market is looking at the statement, which does not provide any forward guidance or clues in terms of future rate cuts. Lagarde traditional caution could also leave the market less certain of rate cut timing in 2024 in the first half of the press conference, but further clues are likely and we still look for 25bps in September and December.