Published: 2024-06-06T08:39:15.000Z
EUR flows: Waiting for the ECB
Director of Research , Macroeconomics and Strategy
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The EUR has been subdued ahead of the ECB meeting, with a 25bps cut in official rates now fully discounted.
However, traders views vary, with some feeling that the cut will see a decline in Eurozone yields as the market shifts to discounting two further cuts in 2024 and this will hurt the EUR. Others are more neutral to positive on the EUR reaction, feeling that President Lagarde will downplay visibility on future rate hikes. Lagarde forward guidance in press conference has been weak in the past, with more clarity from other speakers post press conference and from the ECB accounts of the meeting.