Mexico Elections: Sheimbaum Victory will likely mean a continuity of Current Government
On June 2, Mexico will see historic general elections, marking the potential for its first female President. Claudia Sheinbaum of Morena and Xóchitl Galvés of PAN-PRI lead the race. Sheinbaum aims to continue Lopez-Obrador's legacy, while Galvés emphasizes social mobility. The polls show Sheimbaum as a clear favorite with possibilities of winning in the first round. However, her challenge lies in balancing fiscal discipline and social policies. The future government's approach hinges on the outcome of Mexico-US relations amid potential Trump victory.
Figure 1: Mexico’s Elections Poll (%)
Source: Oraculus
On June 2, Mexico will hold general elections. All 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies and 128 members of the Senate (1/3 of the total), and a new President will be elected. The main curiosity of this election is that Mexico will elect the first woman as their President. The two main candidates are Claudia Sheinbaum, representing the ruling Party Morena of the incumbent President Lopez-Obrador, while Xóchitl Galvés will represent the united front of the two traditional Parties PAN and PRI.
Claudia Sheinbaum was the first female mayor of Mexico City and she was elected in 2019. Her campaign is based on the continuity of the popular government of incumbent President Lopez-Obrador. Indeed, it is not difficult to draw parallels between what passed in Brazil, when Lula indicated his successor Dilma Rousseff. The main question that remains is whether she will be in constant contact with Lopez-Obrador or if she will try to build a government on her own.
Xóchitl Galvés is the representative of a unified front between PAN and PRI. Despite her links with the traditional parties, she tries to encompass the view of social mobility. Coming from an indigenous family, she is aligned with social policies despite representing the conservative force in Mexico. She is currently a Senator for the PAN and has built her entire political career in the ranks of PAN.
Jorge Alvarez will participate in the Presidential race as a third candidate representing the Movimiento Ciudadano but has little chance of winning. The latest polls point to a comfortable victory for Claudia Sheinbaum, with many indicating a win in the first round. The difference now will be whether Morena will be able to fully dominate the Mexican Congress and impose their agenda. So far, the polls are unclear on that front. Our bet is that the Congress will hold a similar composition as it has now and Morena will face difficulties passing its agenda of reforms. Regarding the prospect of the Sheinbaum government, it is important to state that she does not dominate MORENA and some dissident voices are likely to be against her. It is very likely that Lopez-Obrador will still hold significant power in the decisions of her government, although he states he will retire and be out of politics.
One of the biggest doubts regarding a future Claudia Sheinbaum policy is whether her government will push for high expenditures, damaging the usual fiscal discipline of the Mexican government. So far the message is that they will seek to revert the 2024 deficit in 2025. Additionally, the nearshoring prospects, which could push Mexico’s growth, will depend on how a Trump victory in the U.S. could impact the relations between Mexico and the U.S.