Published: 2024-09-06T12:43:07.000Z
USD flows: Data adds to 25bps v 50bps from Fed and Hurt USD
Director of Research , Macroeconomics and Strategy
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USD pushing lower post NFP.
The FX market is pushing the USD lower, as U.S. Treasury yields have come down further on the back of the lower than expected NFP and downward revision to the June and July payrolls by 86k. This means that 3mth average NFP pace is also clearly slowing. Not enough in itself to deliver 50bps on Sep 18, but will keep the market talking about 25bps v 50bps, unless Fed Williams leans against this idea – unlikely given Powell Jackson Hole openness. JPY gains are leading the way, but USD weakness is broad based. USDJPY 141.69 likely to be test today or next week and a break would open up 138 and 135 in the coming weeks, which would likely to spill over to hurt the USD generally against G10 currencies.