India Elections: Early Trends Point to a Weakened BJP Government
Election counting trends indicate that the BJP-led NDA is on track to secure 290 seats, with the BJP projected to win 235-240 seats. The INDIA alliance is expected to secure around 230 seats. Final results will be announced later tonight. A weakened BJP is expected to form a government with its allies, but horse trading or a reveral os electoral pacts could make it challenging.
Currently, vote counting is still underway. The BJP has so far secured 94 seats and is leading in 145 more, while Congress has won 38 seats and is leading in 61. The significant gains by Congress and its allies under the INDIA alliance have posed a major challenge to the BJP. Despite this, the BJP and its traditional allies are likely to form the government with around 290 seats. However, with the INDIA alliance's substantial share, there are reports that Congress might reach out to some BJP allies, which could complicate the BJP's efforts to form a government.
At present, BJP's allies appear to remain loyal. The BJP is also expected to seek additional support from other parties and potentially from within the INDIA alliance. The party faces significant setbacks, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, where key leaders are trailing. BJP had anticipated winning a majority of the 80 seats in this state but is now projected to win only about 40. Similar trends have been observed in West Bengal and Maharashtra. Final results are anticipated late tonight.
The initial trends showing fewer seats for the BJP have negatively impacted financial markets. The Sensex fell by over 4000 points (5.7%), while the Nifty closed 6% lower. Election uncertainty also affected the Indian Rupee (INR), which dropped to 83.5 against the USD.