Modi's Marathon: Exit Polls Predict Third Term with Sweeping Majority

Aligned with our forecast, the 2024 Indian general elections exit polls suggest a landslide victory for the Bhartiya Janta Party led National Democratic Alliance (BJP-led NDA), with projections pointing towards a near-historic majority in the 545-seat Lok Sabha (lower house). A compilation of five major exit polls, including the widely regarded India Today-Axis My India poll, forecasts the NDA securing around 379 seats, inching close to the '400' mark. This outcome signifies a strong endorsement of continuity, as a significant majority of voters appear to favour another term under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's leadership. If these exit poll predictions hold true, the BJP, under Modi's leadership, will be set for a third consecutive term, a milestone that only Jawaharlal Nehru, India's first Prime Minister, has previously achieved.

Figure 1: Exit Polls - Lok Sabha Elections 2024

The BJP's campaign slogan '400 paar' (beyond 400) seems nearly fulfilled, with the India Today-Axis My India exit poll predicting the NDA could potentially secure up to 401 seats, within a range of 361-401. Other exit polls, such as those by Chanakya and CNX, also estimate the NDA crossing the 400-seat threshold. Conversely, the INDIA bloc, led by the Congress, is expected to secure approximately 136 seats, with various polls placing their tally between 96 and 182 seats. This marks an improvement from the Congress led UPA's 91 seats in 2019. Additionally, other parties are anticipated to capture 28 seats. Despite the occasional inaccuracies of exit polls, the aggregated data suggests a decisive victory for the NDA.

The exit polls have indicated a wide range for the NDA's potential seat count, from a minimum of 280 seats (as projected by Dainik Bhaskar) to a maximum of 401 (according to India Today-Axis My India). This broad variation highlights the complexities and uncertainties inherent in seat predictions, as the science behind exit polls is about predicting the vote share. Vote share to seat conversion is a mathematical extrapolation over the data. 

State Election Results: Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim

Meanwhile, four states in India (Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Sikkim and Andhra Pradesh) also voted for their state assemblies. Results of two states have bee declared. In the state elections, the BJP secured a significant victory in Arunachal Pradesh, winning 46 out of 60 assembly seats, marking a third consecutive term in power. The Election Commission announced the results for 50 seats, with the BJP having won 10 seats unopposed, including that of Chief Minister Pema Khandu. The National People's Party (NPP) won five seats, the People's Party of Arunachal secured two, and the NCP won three. The Congress managed to secure only one seat, while independent candidates won in three constituencies.

In Sikkim, the ruling regional party, Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM), led by Chief Minister Prem Singh Tamang, won 31 out of 32 assembly seats, securing a second term in power. The Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) managed to win just one seat. Exit polls predict a BJP victory in Andhra Pradesh and a close match between the BJP and a regional party in Orissa. 

Market Reaction

The exit poll projections have significantly boosted investor confidence, reflected in the strong performance of the Indian rupee and stock markets. The rupee rallied to its best intraday performance since December 2023, closing at 83.14 against the US dollar, up nearly 0.4% on the day. The local currency peaked at 82.95 in early trading before trimming some gains. Meanwhile, the Indian benchmark equity indices hit record highs. The BSE Sensex surged by 3.4% and the NSE Nifty gained 3.25% today, reflecting the positive market sentiment in anticipation of a stable and continued government under Prime Minister Modi.