Canada November GDP - Q4 looking stronger than BoC projected
November Canadian GDP with a rise of 0.2% saw momentum pick up after there straight flat outcomes which flowed two straight negatives. The preliminary estimate for December is stronger still at 0.3%, which suggests Q4 will come in stronger than a flat forecast from the BoC.
If December meets the preliminary projection and October and November see no revisions we calculate that Q4 would come in up by 1.2% annualized, which would fully reverse a decline seen in Q3. This suggests the BoC need be in no hurry to ease with inflation still too high.
The November details are not particularly impressive with services up a weak 0.1% for the second straight month though there was a modest negative from strikes causing a 0.3% decline in education. Goods increased by 0.6%. Manufacturing rose by 0.9% after a 1.0% October decline and weather-sensitive utilities rise by 1.4%. Agriculture saw a second straight rise, and a strong one at 2.4%, but is still down by 8.7% yr/yr. Overall GDP stands at 1.1% yr/yr, versus 0.9% in October.
