Preview: Due January 16 - U.S. December Retail Sales - Solid end to Q4
We expect US retail sales to finish Q4 on a solid note with a 0.7% rise overall, matching November’s gain, with a 0.6% rise ex autos and a 0.5% increase ex autos and gasoline, the two core rates picking up after both saw modest 0.2% increases in both October and November.
Industry data shows auto sales gaining momentum in Q4, though the December rise in the retail auto data may not be quite as strong as that of November, which outperformed the industry data.
Gasoline prices, at least after seasonal adjustment, are likely to also contribute positively to December retail sales.
Ex autos and gasoline the underlying fundamentals remain solid, with the modest gains of October and November following a very strong September, and some components, notably food and eating and drinking places, due for stronger growth than below trend November outcomes.
Q4 would then see the strongest rise in retail sales since Q1 2023, at 1.7% (not annualized) though ex autos a 1.1% gain would match that of Q3, while a 1.3% gain ex autos and gasoline would be slightly slower than Q3’s 1.5%, though still showing solid momentum.
