Continuum Economics
  • Search
  • About Us
  • Buy
  • Invite A Friend
  • My Basket
  • Articles
  • Calendar
  • Forecasts
  • Events
  • Data
  • Newsletters
  • My Alerts
  • Community
  • Directory
  • About Us
  • Buy
  • Invite A Friend
  • My Basket
  • Articles
    • All
    • Thematic
    • Tactical
    • Asia
    • EMEA
    • Americas
    • Newsletters
    • Freemium
    • Editor's Choice
    • Most Viewed
    • Most Shared
    • Most Liked
  • Calendar
    • Interactive
      • China
      • United States
      • Eurozone
      • United Kingdom
    • Month Ahead
    • Reviews
    • Previews
  • Forecasts
    • Forecasts
    • Key Views
  • Events
    • Media
    • Conference Calls
  • Data
    • Country Insights
    • Shadow Credit Ratings
    • Full CI Data Download
  • Newsletters
  • My Alerts
  • Community
    • FX
    • Fixed Income
    • Macro Strategy
    • Credit Markets
    • Equities
    • Commodities
    • Precious Metals
    • Renewables
  • Directory
  • My Account
  • Notifications Setup
  • Account Details
  • Recent Devices
  • Distribution Lists
  • Shared Free Trials
  • Saved Articles
  • Shared Alerts
  • My Posts
Published: 2023-05-25T15:46:35.000Z

Webinar: Uncertain 3 Months, But Bullish Equities 2024

byMike Gallagher

Director of Research , Macroeconomics and Strategy
-

Bottom Line: Provided that the U.S. avoids a temporary default and reaches a debt ceiling agreement, then the key focus for asset allocation over the next 1½ years will switch back to growth/inflation and central bank policy prospects. DM inflation will likely come down further, which will allow Fed and ECB rate cuts in 2024. Concerns over economic stagnation/mild recession will also swing to recovery hopes in 2024. The combination of these issues will likely drive less yield curve inversion in DM government bond markets and a swing back to positive yield curves.

Market Implications: The swing towards 2024 economic recovery, plus a peak in the policy cycle, will likely power a rotation towards equity markets (Figure 1).Long-dated government bond yields will likely only see small positive returns as starting yields are partially offset by capital losses. Scope exists for 4700 on the S&P500 by end 2024, with some outperformance by UK/Japan equities but EZ equities performing in line with the U.S. In EM, we prefer China (cheap valuations/reasonable growth and a pro-growth policy from President Xi) and Brazil (rate cutting cycle and too much pessimism on fiscal policy currently discounted). These markets can outperform DM equity markets.

Please click here for the webinar or below Image


Continue to read the article for free
Login

or

or

Topics
Macro Strategy
FX & Money Markets Now! (North America)
FX & Money Markets Now! (Europe)
FX & Money Markets Now! (Asia)
Asia/Pacific
CHINA
EMERGING EMEA
EMERGING MARKETS

GENERAL

  • Home
  • About Us
  • Our Team
  • Careers

LEGAL

  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy
  • Compliance
  • GDPR

GET IN TOUCH

  • Contact Us
Continuum Economics
The Technical Analyst Awards Winner 2021
The Technical Analyst Awards Finalist 2020
image