Preview: Due January 31 - Canada November GDP - Q4 may exceed BoC forecast
We expect Canadian GDP to increase by 0.2% in November, which would be slightly stronger than a preliminary 0.1% estimate made with October’s report and the strongest month since May. We expect December’s preliminary estimate will be marginally positive too, suggesting Q4 GDP will beat not only the decline seen in Q3 but also the Bank of Canada's forecast for a flat Q4..
The monthly GDP increase is likely to be led by goods, where we expect a 0.4% increase with positive contributions from manufacturing, construction and agriculture.
We expect services to rise by 0.1%, matching October’s gain. Retail lost some momentum in November (but December is seen stronger) but this should be balanced by transport and warehousing and wholesale correcting from October dips. Yr/yr GDP would under our forecast increase to 1.1% from 0.9%.
