Continuum Economics
  • Search
  • About Us
  • Buy
  • Invite A Friend
  • My Basket
  • Articles
  • Calendar
  • Forecasts
  • Events
  • Data
  • Newsletters
  • My Alerts
  • Community
  • Directory
  • About Us
  • Buy
  • Invite A Friend
  • My Basket
  • Articles
    • All
    • Thematic
    • Tactical
    • Asia
    • EMEA
    • Americas
    • Newsletters
    • Freemium
    • Editor's Choice
    • Most Viewed
    • Most Shared
    • Most Liked
  • Calendar
    • Interactive
      • China
      • United States
      • Eurozone
      • United Kingdom
    • Month Ahead
    • Reviews
    • Previews
  • Forecasts
    • Forecasts
    • Key Views
  • Events
    • Media
    • Conference Calls
  • Data
    • Country Insights
    • Shadow Credit Ratings
    • Full CI Data Download
  • Newsletters
  • My Alerts
  • Community
    • FX
    • Fixed Income
    • Macro Strategy
    • Credit Markets
    • Equities
    • Commodities
    • Precious Metals
    • Renewables
  • Directory
  • My Account
  • Notifications Setup
  • Account Details
  • Recent Devices
  • Distribution Lists
  • Shared Free Trials
  • Saved Articles
  • Shared Alerts
  • My Posts
Published: 2024-02-07T07:23:30.000Z

EUR flows: EUR downside risks on weak German production

byAdrian Schmidt

Senior FX Strategist
-

Weak German Decmeber production data underlines the weakness of the economy and increases the chance of early ECB easing

Very weak German December industrial production hasn’t initially had a negative impact on the EUR. Indeed, the EUR is starting the European session a little firmer, but the 1.6% decline in German production in December should be a concern as it suggests the trend is still deteriorating. While yesterday’s December orders data provided some grounds for optimism about the future, the orders data is volatile and there is no guarantee the sharp December rise won’t be reversed in January. The production data tends to show a more stable trend, and the near 9% annualised decline in the last 3 months underlines the weakness of the German manufacturing sector. This should increase the chances of an ECB easing in April, which is currently priced as around a 60% chance. EUR/USD risks are consequently on the downside, with the recent rise in front end yields following the US employment report looking hard to justify on the basis of European economics.

Continue to read the article for free
Login

or

or

Topics
Foreign Exchange
FX DM
Flows
EUR/USD-Commentary

GENERAL

  • Home
  • About Us
  • Our Team
  • Careers

LEGAL

  • Terms and Conditions
  • Privacy Policy
  • Compliance
  • GDPR

GET IN TOUCH

  • Contact Us
Continuum Economics
The Technical Analyst Awards Winner 2021
The Technical Analyst Awards Finalist 2020
image