Due March 20 - U.S. Q4 Current Account - Another record deficit
We expect a Q4 US current account deficit of $325.0bn, or 4.4% of GDP, up from the record $310.9bn in Q3 when the deficit was 4.2% of GDP. This will be a fresh record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q1 2022.
Monthly trade data on goods and services has already been released, showing a Q4 deterioration in the deficit for the former comfortably outweighing a rise in the surplus on the latter. This will lead the increase in the current account deficit.
Still to be released are data on primary (investment) income and secondary (unilateral transfers) income. Fed flow of funds data however suggests the balance on the former continued to deteriorate, while the balance on the latter showed only a partial correction from a sharp Q3 deterioration. The net impact on the Q4 current account will be only marginally positive, insufficient to offset the deterioration in goods trade.
