U.S. September Industrial Production - Up excluding impact of Boeing strike and hurricanes
September industrial production was a little weaker than expected with a 0.3% decline, with manufacturing down by 0.4%, but the Fed stated that a strike at Boeing which started in mid-September took 0.3% off the total, and the impact of two Hurricanes took off an additional 0.3%, meaning a modestly positive underlying picture, though August data was revised lower.
The hurricanes that impacted the September data are not named, but they are likely to be Francine, which impacted oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, and Helene. Hurricane Milton will have its impact in October while the Boeing strike is continuing and if it lasts through the month could have a bigger negative impact than in September.
Mining output fell by 0.6%, depressed by the hurricanes but was offset by a 0.7% rise in weather-sensitive utilities. Autos made a modest negative contribution, taking 0.1% off September output after a strong August rise reversed a sharp July decline.
August industrial production saw a sharp downward revision to a 0.3% increase from 0.8% with manufacturing revised to a 0.5% increase from 0.9%. However upward revisions to June and July offset most, but not all, of the downward revision to August.
While special factors will remain a negative in October the October Philly Fed manufacturing survey was positive, rising to 10.3 from 1.7 with 6-month expectations up sharply to 36.7 from 15.8. The strong headline contrasts a negative Empire State index of -11.9 released on Tuesday but the Empire State’s 6-month expectation of 38.7 is consistent with the positive Philly Fed message.
