EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows: Streeting resignation no surprise, retail sales resilient

Wes Streeting resigns to no great surprise, saying it’s clear PM wont lead into the next election and ‘hopes Starmer will facilitate debate’ about leadership. There are still doubts being aired that Streeting himself does have the numbers right now to trigger an election though, and its often not advantageous to be the stalking horse either, so this maybe leaves the game of cat and mouse going. Most of the contenders still seem to hope that Starmer gets worn down and does eventually fall on his sword (a delayed exit announcement might help Burnham). GBP largely indifferent to the expected news and until an election is triggered and the runners and riders assessed there’s no much further for the market to digest here.

US retail sales broadly as expected at 0.5% but showing overall and underlying resilience so far as a result – ex autos/gas/building/food services 0.5% (mkt 0.4%) from 0.8% (prev 0.7%). Initial claims slightly above mkt at 211k from 199k.

Data still plays to an overall story of underlying relative US resilience, set against a more complicated relative central bank picture, as Warsh takes over at the Fed. Dollar nudges just a fraction firmer but not testing any new levels, EUR/USD still held around 1.17.