EUR/GBP-Commentary

October 01, 2026

Could blow out in French spreads, CDS, catch up with the euro? (EUR/GBP flows)

October 1, 2026 9:00 AM UTC

Recent action in OAT-bund spreads continues to extend, yet to fully come onto the FX mkt radar
EUR-GBP CDS spread widening the fastest since 2017
EUR/GBP could extend the resistance test failure to range lows if relative risk re-pricing starts to impact narrative, sentiment

September 28, 2026

USD/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD - Counter specific issues to the fore

September 28, 2026 2:22 PM UTC

CHF remains pressured on its unicorn policy stance
EUR/GBP sold back after failed resistance test, mkt very short GBP
AUD eyes RBA, with a hike fully priced in and so attention on any forward guidance from here. A tricky balancing act ...

September 11, 2026

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - Yields and US CPI in focus; UK GDP upside keeps cross cap holding

September 11, 2026 6:53 AM UTC

US CPI and bond yields in focus
UK GDP upside helps cap EUR/GBP, keep GBP shorts at bay while holds

September 03, 2026

USD/JPY, EUR/CHF flows: Swiss CPI upside stems o/s CHF; strong 30yr JGB auction with grain of yen

September 3, 2026 6:54 AM UTC

Good 30yr auction supports notion of better Japan buying, shifting JPY sentiment
Upside on Swiss CPI stems an oversold CHF, although remains the low CPI, low rates counter

August 24, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/CAD - week's main events backloaded; CAD the main exception

August 24, 2026 6:53 AM UTC

Flat trade, with week's main events from Wed onwards, though Bessent speaks on Iran sanctions today
CAD the main exception, though initial reaction to talk breakdown modest; spec mkt remained short CAD

August 19, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/CAD, EUR/GBP flows: Risk still retreating, CAD not celebrating yet; data leaves BoE views unchanged

August 19, 2026 6:59 AM UTC

Risk still correcting while bonds level off, and oil still drifting out
CAD not yet celebrating potential deal, as talks extended
Sterling unmoved by CPI, BoE odds still at that gradual move to one hike view

August 13, 2026

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: June GDP holds up, though recent trend still stagnant

August 13, 2026 6:36 AM UTC

GDP holds up as weather impact chequered, some world cup lift too
Following flat and -0.1%, the 0.3% print leaves recent trend stagnant all the same
Sterling left largely unmoved

July 31, 2026

USD/JPY Flows - BoJ Ueda underscores hawkish lean on upside inflation risks

July 31, 2026 7:09 AM UTC

BoJ's Ueda largely echoes, while underscoring more hawkish tilt

July 30, 2026

USD/JPY Flows - was vulnerable, getting hammered

July 30, 2026 2:16 PM UTC

Big slump looks like opportunistic action, short yen squeeze had been brewing
Nervy mood to extend into BoJ

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: Slight vote change but broad story looks similar

July 30, 2026 11:25 AM UTC

Sterling little changed after BoE; seems to leave broad story unchanged

July 16, 2026

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: GDP as expected; sterling remains lively on the squeeze

July 16, 2026 6:49 AM UTC

UK GDP broadly as expected at 0.1%m/m
Sterling steadies o/b intraday after yesterday's further late squeeze

July 15, 2026

USD, GBP/USD flows: Still exchanging Iran threats; Mansion House non-event

July 15, 2026 6:51 AM UTC

Iran-US continue to exchange threats, Bab el-Mandeb Strait highlighted
Quiet morning; last night's Mansion House speech largely uneventful

July 14, 2026

EUR/USD Flows - US CPI in focus after Fed Waller; Iran exchanges continue

July 14, 2026 6:44 AM UTC

Brent up at $85 now as oil market reluctantly responds to blockade, strikes in last few sessions
US CPI key, focus sharpened by Fed Waller's remarks

July 10, 2026

USD/JPY Flows - GPIF window guidance could prove a notable shift

July 10, 2026 7:16 AM UTC

GPIF radical asset allocation overhauls in 2014 and 2020 were major events
Window guidance shifts could be significant especially if they ripple out more widely

July 09, 2026

EUR/USD Flows - ECB predetermined, Fed open minded? (Fed Williams, ECB Minutes)

July 9, 2026 2:21 PM UTC

ECB Minutes unsurprisingly hawkish given the decision and the presser, but do underscore the rigid view on the mmkt curve
Fed Williams meanwhile nods to upside risks, but mainly highlights 'collective reaction function' and open questions

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - Chilli yesterday, TACO today?

July 9, 2026 8:27 AM UTC

Familiar de-escalation comments follow yesterday's outburst and fresh exchanges. Mkt left waiting to hear from Iran
Fed Minutes highlight two scenarios and rate paths ahead. Iran and tech demand remain highly relevant
EUR/GBP meanwhile inching out the lows

July 08, 2026

USD Flows - Dangerous rhetoric loop?

July 8, 2026 2:55 PM UTC

Iran threat to close Strait adds to the ramp up
Danger that things get out of control in current rhetoric-action one-upping, even if result makes no sense

EUR/USD Flows - Trump shooting from hip at NATO, Iran MOU 'over' and Spain 'no trade'

July 8, 2026 8:32 AM UTC

Trump firing shots at NATO, aiming at Spain and Iran
MoU 'over' comments can spook oil and squeeze NOK (and CAD)

July 07, 2026

EUR/USD Flows - Mixed Le Pen outcome, France challenges regardless

July 7, 2026 1:01 PM UTC

Le Pen court ruling. Challenges for France in any case

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - Kospi lively; FX relatively subdued

July 7, 2026 6:41 AM UTC

Minor edge for the dollar and yen in limited range trade
Kospi has another lively session as pullback continues

July 06, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - US NM ISM solid as expected

July 6, 2026 2:25 PM UTC

US NM ISM broadly as expected, another solid report

July 03, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - looking quiet unless yen sees another flurry

July 3, 2026 6:42 AM UTC

Could be quiet into US holiday unless there is another flurry of squaring

July 02, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY - miss on payrolls trims Fed bets, pulls dollar back

July 2, 2026 12:43 PM UTC

Payrolls misses, especially with revisions and, even with unemployment dip, gives the Fed more space to stay on hold
Takes some wind out of the dollar's sail, and makes USD/JPY exit look well timed

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: Cross consolidates break lower; dollar waits for payrolls

July 2, 2026 6:46 AM UTC

Waiting game ahead of payrolls holiday, some wariness over MoF
Dollar also checked since Warsh's comments
EUR/GBP the main interest in recent hours with the range breakdown

June 29, 2026

GBP/USD flows: Manchesterism; max GBP spec shorts at risk of buy the fact?

June 29, 2026 11:13 AM UTC

PM-elect speech focuses on devolution so far, as expected
IMM data shows max levles of GBP shorts - suggests some risks of a short-squeeze / buy-fact ahead

June 22, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: W/e worries stemmed on progress, dollar remains firm

June 22, 2026 6:38 AM UTC

Reported progress in high level talks helps stem w/e escalation worries
Dollar retains its firmer lean since break higher

June 19, 2026

EUR/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/GBP flows: Dollar still supported, Japan policy options still in focus

June 19, 2026 7:13 AM UTC

Hawkish Japan comments at major yen lows, rates and intervention in frame
Hiccups on Iran talks uncomfortable though not unexpected
Burnham wins, data underscores fiscal realities

June 18, 2026

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: BoE avoids hawkish surprise, cross drifting up off range floor

June 18, 2026 11:27 AM UTC

BoE delivers the expected 7-2 vote for unchanged
Small lift for EUR/GBP on confirmation and lack of hawkish surprise
Overall, recent action remains largely technical driven with the recent measured range bounce

GBP/USD flows: Labour mkt data steadier, focus on BoE, FOMC digesting

June 18, 2026 6:58 AM UTC

Labour market data better than last month at least
Focus on BoE with wait-and-see expected
Slight backfilling and consolidation from the FOMC dollar move

June 17, 2026

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Wait for FOMC continues, UK CPI undershoots

June 17, 2026 6:49 AM UTC

FX still largely treading water into FOMC
Slight GBP dip on lower than expected CPI, but plays to more positive mood

June 04, 2026

GBP/USD, EUR/USD flows: 6yr low in UK construction PMI; expiries

June 4, 2026 8:50 AM UTC

Weakness in UK construction PMI notable
Expiries otherwise reinforcing apathy

June 02, 2026

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: MPC's Greene more hawkish, but no great surprise

June 2, 2026 3:21 PM UTC

MPC's Greene gives the more hawkish perspective on acting sooner rather than later

GBP/USD flows: Decent US data again

June 2, 2026 2:45 PM UTC

JOLTS data firm again, still a resilient US story

May 29, 2026

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: BoE's Bailey reinforces 'no hurry' view

May 29, 2026 10:31 AM UTC

BoE's Bailey further contrasts recent ECB tone, by emphasising no hurry to hike
Suggests while lack of evidence of 2nd round effects, risk-reward favours wait and see

May 26, 2026

EUR flows: EUR marginally firmer after hawkish Schnabel, but..

May 26, 2026 8:24 AM UTC

Schnabel calls for June rate hike, EUR modestly firmer, but upside limited

May 22, 2026

EUR flows: Steady after IFO and INSEE surveys

May 22, 2026 8:23 AM UTC

IFO and INSEE both slightly stronger thna expected, but underlying picture in Europe still weak

GBP flows: GBP marginally softer after UK data

May 22, 2026 6:24 AM UTC

UK retail sales soft and borrowing higher but GBP only slightly softer. But medium term risks on the downside

May 21, 2026

GBP, EUR flows: UK PMI Matches 2023 and 2025 low

May 21, 2026 8:38 AM UTC

EUR and GBP both holding up remarkably well despite very weak PMIs, but risks remain on the downside

May 20, 2026

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: BoE TSC cementing summer re-pricing

May 20, 2026 2:18 PM UTC

Comments so far from BoE TSC largely go with the grain of the summer wait and see
Mkt has priced back its overly aggressive hike odds for June-July

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: CPI lower, but focus elsewhere

May 20, 2026 6:43 AM UTC

UK CPI below market showing core retreat, albeit stronger PPI highlighting Iran cost pressures
USD focus more of politics, geopolitics, yields and tech risk performance

May 19, 2026

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: Still a nervy mkt, UK data soft

May 19, 2026 7:01 AM UTC

UK data overall soft, supports a cautious approach from the BoE
Even with the more positive, but erratic, Iran comments, mkt still edgy
Dual focus on the recent tech pullback, and upcoming earnings

May 14, 2026

EUR/USD, GBP/USD flows: Streeting resignation no surprise, retail sales resilient

May 14, 2026 12:44 PM UTC

Streeting resigns, hopes Starmer falls on his sword
Retail sales resilient but around expectation
Mkt still struggling for traction

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: Better Q1 GDP old news, more leadership positioning

May 14, 2026 6:45 AM UTC

Rayner announces HMRC 'all clear' ready to enter the fray, still waiting on the kick off
Mar GDP better end to UK Q1 but Q2 seen flagging
Risk rally and key US yields levels provide the broader backdrop

May 13, 2026

EUR/USD GBP/USD flows: PPI upside goes with the grain of cable slippage

May 13, 2026 12:48 PM UTC

Upside PPI prints see cable pressed through 1.35

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: challenge still in the works?

May 13, 2026 11:10 AM UTC

Reports suggest imminent challenge still in the works

EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, GBP/USD flows: event risk focus as odds of UK PM departure lengthen; US-China meetings kick off

May 13, 2026 7:04 AM UTC

Iran rhetoric and lack of progress, US-China meeting kick off
UK PM exit tone less febrile, chances of departure drop off

May 12, 2026

EUR/USD, GBP flows: US CPI firm though doesn't move the dial; a look the Starmer betting..

May 12, 2026 12:49 PM UTC

US Core CPI on the stiff side but doesn't move the dial enough for much FX impact
A quick look at the betting odds for UK PM Starmer

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: Having another stab at the 'political short' trade

May 12, 2026 7:44 AM UTC

Gilts spike at open after further news of Labour push to replace Starmer
Technicals had already suggested some scope for GBP correction
That said, the narrative is a bit one-dimensional, and there is already short spec positioning

May 11, 2026

EUR/USD, AUD/NZD, GBP flows: Positioning shows little net dollar hedge, Aussie cross stretched (IMM)

May 11, 2026 9:03 AM UTC

Mixed positioning, but market shows little USD hedge overall, still risks being the pain trade? Natural AUD/NZD positioning stretched

April 30, 2026

GBP/USD, EUR/GBP flows: BOE Not More Hawkish

April 30, 2026 11:14 AM UTC

No initial reaction from GBP to the BOE statement and minutes.