Preview: Due December 18 - U.S. Q3 Current Account - Record deficit seen
We expect a Q3 US current account deficit of $294.0bn, or 4.0% of GDP, up from $266.8bn in Q2 when the deficit was 3.7% of GDP. This will be a record deficit in nominal terms and the highest as a proportion of GDP since Q2 2022.
Monthly trade data on goods and services has already been released, showing a Q3 deterioration in the deficit for the former outweighing a rise in the surplus on the latter, with the rise in the services surplus due only because of Q2’s surplus being revised lower to $71.9bn from $73.9bn reported with the Q2 release.
Still to be released are data on primary (investment) income and secondary (unilateral transfers) income. Fed flow of funds data however suggests significant deteriorations in both balances, which together will exceed the impact of the goods and services data in adding to the quarterly deficit.
