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Published: 2024-01-17T11:28:22.000Z

Psychology for major markets 17 Jan

byAdrian Schmidt

Senior FX Strategist
-

USD strong as yields rise 

EUR/USD – EUR/USD breaking lower below 1.09 as US yields rise. But clearer divergence between ECB and Fed monetary policy expectations looks necessary to sustain USD gains.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY breaking to new highs for the year as the USD gains on rising yields, but spreads don’t look wide enough to support further gains. Sentiment nevertheless JPY negative due to continued easy BoJ policy and soft data.
EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP slipping lower after higher CPI for December. Underlying sentiment GBP positive as UK inflation is perceived to be more persistent than elsewhere. 
AUD/USD – Continuing to soften as US yields rise, with concerns about China’s weak growth and inflation undermining sentiment, as well as some background geopolitical concern.
USD/CHF – CHF looks toppish here as SNB turns more dovish and halts FX selling. 
Equities - US CPI strong enough to ask some questions about the extent of Fed easing priced in, and may mark a near term top for equities, with soft China data and geopolitics also potential risk negatives
 

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