Sub Sahara Africa: Country Risk Ratings

Cameroon (CMR)

Overall risk in Cameroon remains medium high. Paul Biya, now at 92 years of age, remains president as he has done since 1982. Presidential elections are expected for the end of 2025, with President Biya hinting at re-election, despite concerns about his age, particularly against a powerless opposition. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk both remain high. Security risks persist in the north of the country from the Boko Haram group, which has caused the displacement of many in the north. However, Cameroon is dealing with the influx of people from the Central African Republic and Nigeria. In addition, tensions continue on the Nigerian border with a separatist movement from the English speaking regions. At the start of the year, it was reported that 5 Cameroonian soldiers were killed by Nigerian gunmen on the border.  Approximately 4 out of 10 Cameroonians live below the national poverty line, according to the World Bank. 3.6% real GDP has been forecast by the IMF for 2025. Fragility from conflicts and insecurity and higher prices have been a concern for the Cameroonian economy. Growth will be supported by the agricultural industry as well as mining and gas. The IMF project 3.4% inflation for 2025, down from 2023’s 7.4% peak. Fuel prices are set to rise again however, with government fuel subsidies being cut as per their IMF recommendations. The cost of living has been a severe challenge for Cameroonians, while the government have boosted public sector wages and last year capped the cost of household gas. Government debt to GDP is anticipated to modestly fall to 39.9% of GDP in 2025, while the current account will remain in a significant deficit at -2.8% of GDP. Cameroon remains a member of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC). There is a growing concern, including amongst President Biya, with the CEMAC’s diminishing net external reserves position, leaving them with not enough assets and reserves to pay their import bills with member countries struggling to recover post-COVID with high public spending, lower oil production and ongoing internal conflicts in the region. Cameroon thus still uses the CFA Franc as their currency, pegged to the EUR. Their policy rate remains at 5%. Sovereign non-payment risk remains medium high, while exchange transfer risk remains medium. Supply chain disruption remains very high as the climate risk intensifies with greater risk of floods and droughts impacting their ever-dependent agriculture sector with continued human capital and infrastructure challenges. The risk of doing business remains high.

Central African Republic (CAF)

Central African Republic’s overall risk remains very high. Faustin-Archange Touadéra remains president ahead of elections set for the end of 2025, where President Faustin-Archange Touadéra can be re-elected after he scrapped term-limits. Political violence and political interference both remain very high as the impacts of conflict which has persisted in the country for the past decade continue to be felt in CAR after civil war broke out in 2013. The Central African Republic also remains one of the poorest in the region with 71% of the population living in poverty. Education levels remain poor and there is a continued shortage of sufficient electricity and sanitation. The path to a more lasting peace and less fragility is hoped to be achieved through the Luanda Roadmap committing to disarmament and demobilisation. Relations continue to be built with Russia with a military base being set up for Moscow in CAR last year after the Russia-backed Wagner paramilitary group helping to stop rebellions, notably in 2020. As for the economy, 2.9% growth is forecast by the IMF for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026. Growth will continue to be supported by the dominant agriculture and mining sectors as the Central African Republic continue to hold strong gold and diamond reserves. However high poverty, limited economic activity as well as the cutting of USAID is likely to worsen this issue. Inflation is forecast at 2.7% for 2025 and a high current account balance at -6.9% of GDP with high reliance of key imports continuing as exchange transfer risk is medium high.  Meanwhile, the risk of doing business remains very high. Government debt to GDP will reach 58.3% this year and expected to fall to 53% in 2026, however sovereign non-payment risk remains high. Flooding and draught risk is also worsening reflecting a very high supply chain disruption risk. The inability of the government to provide fiscal stimulus is medium high, poor investment into social projects coinciding with aid cuts is exacerbating social fragility and the poor transition to climate technologies. CAR continue to adopt the Central African CAF franc as their currency, pegged to the EUR. However, at the start of the year President Faustin-Archange Touadéra launched a meme coin, $CAR, to raise CAR’s profile and help ‘unite people and support national development’, 3 years after CAR became the first African country to accept bitcoin as legal tender. However, the project has come under fire with the meme coin plunging 95% after its launch after concerns over its authenticity.

Congo Dem. Republic (COD)

The Democratic Republic of Congo’s overall risk remains very high. Félix Tshisekedi remains president after his controversial election victory in 2023. Political violence, political interference and legal & regulatory risk all remain very high. Fighting between the Rwandan backed M23 rebels and the DRC’s Armed Forces continues to be the dominant issue in the DRC. The conflict has had devastating impacts with thousands killed, hundreds of thousands of people displaced and a humanitarian hunger crisis in which 28 million people are facing acute hunger, according to the United Nations. The M23 have taken control of eastern regions of the DRC, including mineral-rich Goma and Bukava, after a rapid assault in recent months. Diplomatic efforts have been made to halt the conflict, including from the US, who have helped stage talks between both sides in Doha. The US are said to be eyeing up an economic minerals deal, which could bring in significant investment into critical mineral areas. The IMF forecast 4.7% growth in 2025 and 5.2% in 2026. Growth will be dependent on progress in the extractive industry and hopes of a US led minerals deal to unlock further minerals such as gold, copper, tantalum and lithium to provide a basis for further investment from the West into the country. However, with the country divided between the regions occupied by the M23 and further risks of escalation causing a copper export ban, the current account will remain under pressure projected by the IMF to be in deficit of -2.9% of GDP for 2025. The DRC should also benefit from infrastructure improvements in the long run such as from US, EU and African Development Bank funded rail project construction which will cross the DRC, Zambia and Angola.  Inflation will also remain above target at 8.9% for 2025, with rising food prices, very high supply disruption exacerbated by the war and the effects of a weakening currency as exchange transfer risk remains medium high. The inability of the government to provide fiscal stimulus remains at a medium high level, as the public finances are coming under more strain with the number of crises facing the country from conflict to disease outbreaks such as the Mpox crisis and the climate crisis. Education, healthcare and public services provision also remains poor. In the regions occupied by the M23, economic activity has been heavily disrupted with many fleeing, banks closed and currency shortages, while imposing new duties to fund their insurgence.  The DRC will benefit from aid and support from the IMF and their Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program with 1.7 billion USD agreed upon in January, however the region remains under pressure from USAID cuts. The risk of doing business is high.

Congo, Rep. (COG)

Congo’s overall risk remains high. Denis Sassou Nguesso remains President, the post he first took up in 1979. Presidential elections are due for 2026 and parliamentary elections 2027. President Sassou Nguesso could run for a fifth term but questions remain over his age as he will be 82 in 2026. The Congolese Labour Party (PCT) are expected to retain their large majority. Anatole Collinet Makosso remains Prime Minister and leads the government. Relations with China and Russia continue to grow with investments into infrastructure, financing and military support increasing. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk are both very high. High levels of poverty, inequality and unemployment persist in Congo. Youth unemployment has reached around 42%. They continue to have low scores for human capital, education and healthcare quality and access. The climate threat seen by severe flooding in recent years, highlights the vulnerability the climate is having on the economy. Supply chain disruption remains high. The IMF anticipate 3.3% growth this year. Growth will be supported by increasing oil production aided by the start of drilling on the Holmoni field and the Congo LNG project expansion as well as non-oil sectors. Beyond hydrocarbons, the short term economic development plan aims to boost diversification and food security. In 2024, non-oil sectors expanded by 4%, according to the World Bank. 3.3% inflation is forecast for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026 by the IMF, back closer to the CEMAC 3% target, partly explained by lower global commodity prices and restrictive monetary policy. A -1.4% of GDP current account deficit has also been forecast as the Central African Franc, CFA, remains pegged to the EUR. A major cause for concern for Congo is high levels of government debt and its servicing costs. Government debt to GDP is expected to be 91.4% of GDP. Thus, sovereign non-payment risk and the inability of the government to provide fiscal stimulus remain high. The government are keeping public spending high to support the most vulnerable and develop healthcare services, despite tax collection remains difficult. As a result, the National Treasury Program (NTOP) has been launched. A move which aims to reprofile debt and extend maturities of debt which had an average maturity of three years with 62.7% due in 2026. Reprofiling costs were mostly covered by loans and support. Amongst the support in recent times has included a 455 million USD IMF Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme which expired in January 2025. The average maturity on debt has been increased from 2.6 to 6.4 years. Exchange transfer risk remains medium high meanwhile the risk of doing business remains very high.

Cote d’Ivoire (CIV)

Overall risk in the Cote d’Ivoire remains medium high. Alassane Ouattara remains president ahead of elections, scheduled for October. Tensions are rising ahead of elections in the Ivory Coast with President Outtara not yet confirming whether he will stand for re-election and wider fears of election disruption. In April, the main opposition leader Tidjane Thiam was banned from running over his French citizenship. Election results have caused major issues in the past and violence as a result is feared. Political violence is high while political interference and legal & regulatory risk remain medium high. Furthermore, regional instability remains a concern in the Ivory Coast with neighbours Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea under military rule. They have seen an influx of migrants enter the country as a result. This comes alongside the announcement of the withdrawal of French troops in the country, the president attributing this to the modernisation of their own armed forces. As for the economy, growth is expected to remain strong with the IMF forecasting 6.3% real GDP growth in 2025 and 6.4% in 2026. Growth will continue to be supported by the dominant agriculture sectors and falling inflation projected at 3% this year and 2.2% next, boosting private consumption. Ivory Coast remain the world’s biggest cashew producer and they have increased their projected output to 1.3 million tons and above average rainfall expected is now set to boost cocoa crop in the April-September period of 2025 despite fears of a dry start to rainfall season. However, cocoa exports could be further threatened by tariffs by the US and cuts to USAID which helped support agriculture programs, but rainfall and the climate will remain the most pressing issue. The current account deficit remains high at -3.6% of GDP for 2025, however this reflects an improvement from a -8.2% deficit in 2023 and -4.2% deficit in 2024. Export revenues are increasing, however import demand remains high, particularly for capital goods as infrastructure developments continue in the country, such as improvements to the electricity grid and transport. Government debt to GDP is expected to modestly fall in the coming years from 58.1% of GDP in 2025 to 56.4% of GDP in 2026, according to the IMF. Sovereign non-payment risk and the inability of the government to provide fiscal stimulus both remain medium high, after the Ivory Coast became the first nation to go back into financial markets in 2024 and issue two new Eurobonds. The Ivory Coast remains part of the West African Monetary and Economic Union, using the Western CFA Franc as their currency, pegged to the EUR. Exchange transfer risk is medium high, as is the risk of doing business.

Ghana (GHA)

Ghana’s overall risk is medium high. John Mahama is now president having won a landslide victory in December 2024’s election, defeating former Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia. Mahama won 56.6% of the votes, the biggest winning margin for 24 years. On top of his victory, Mahama’s National Democratic Congress (NDC) party won 183 of 276 seats in parliament. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk are both medium. President Mahama has outlined the scale of his economic challenge, highlighting his aim to reform the cocoa and crude oil industries, plus reducing wasteful spending as the country continue their recovery after years of debt crisis after defaulting in 2022. Insecurity in neighbouring countries such as Burkina Faso and Mali remains a geopolitical risk for Ghana. The IMF anticipate 4% growth in 2025 and 4.8% growth in 2026. Growth will continue to be supported by agricultural and mining industries as well as oil and gas. The government are taking back greater control, having taken back control of Gold Fields’ Damang mine and ordered foreign companies to exit the gold market to as they set up a new gold board, GoldBod. This comes after gold exports rose by 53.2% in 2024, however the president aims to crack down on smuggling as less than a half of exports were from legal miners. Inflation remains a major concern for the Ghanaian economy with the IMF forecasting average prices to rise by 17.2% this year, well above the central bank’s 8% target. Food inflation has also elevated the issues relating to poverty and food insecurity. The central bank policy rate is currently at 28%. Meanwhile, Ghana announced last year it will exit debt default, having agreed a restructuring deal with bondholders’ worth over 13 billion USD. The IMF forecast that Ghana’s government debt will continue to fall, reaching 66.4% of GDP in 2025. The new government have made fiscal stability a key priority. The President aims to further reduce debt by restructuring money owed to independent power producers and gas suppliers. Ghana’s cedi currency has appreciated in recent months due to a boost in offshore inflows and reforms, as the current account has gone back into surplus. A 1.6% of GDP surplus is forecast by the IMF for 2025. Sovereign non-payment risk is medium high, while exchange transfer is medium. After debt default in 2022, Ghana have been big beneficiaries of IMF support. In April, Ghana was given access to 370 million USD, after the completion of the fourth review of their 3 billion USD programme. This finance is helping Ghana to boost macroeconomic stability and allow them to continue to implement new reforms as well as take on other challenges, such as the increasing climate risk, which is threatening the agriculture industry particularly cocoa. Supply chain disruption is medium as the risk of doing business remains medium high.

Libya (LBY)

Overall risk in Libya remains very high. Abdul Hamid Dbeibah remains the internationally recognised Prime Minister in his Government of National Unity party (GNU), based in Tripoli in the west of the country. The east and the west of the country have remained divided since the end of the civil war in 2020. In the east, the Government of National Stability (GNS) was set up, supported internationally by the likes of Russia and Egypt. This divide continues to pose many challenges for Libya with regard to the distribution of income and control. Proposed elections for 2021 were cancelled, however there could be more progress on the long-awaited elections in Libya with the UN Mission in Libya forming a new committee to help provide solutions to long standing issues and pave a way for elections. Libya’s eastern parliament have approved a law aimed at reunifying and reconciling the country, however further progress remains a challenge given the divide and the pressure to pursue elections, with parliament not recognising Prime Minister Dbeibah, however he has stated he will not concede power until any elections. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk remain very high. The IMF estimate 17.3% growth in 2025, after the economy declined in 2024 with protests, violence and disputes over oil revenues and a new governor for the central bank who control oil revenue, leading to shutdowns. Growth will be boosted by increases in oil and gas production. For the first time in over 17 years, Libya is going to offer 22 areas for oil exploration. In addition, big oil fields will resume production, including the Mabruk oil operations after a decade long shutdown. Libya will aim to produce at least 1.6 million barrels per day, however risks remain with the east faction controlling many oil fields and subsequently not all revenue will flow to the central bank. The current account will be in surplus at 10.4% of GDP for 2025 according to the IMF due to oil production. 2.3% inflation is forecast by the IMF for this year and next, while hopes of sustained increases to oil revenues and more cooperation in Libya can boost the public finances as well as the new foreign currency exchange taxes, introduced last year. Libya’s central bank have devalued the dinar by 13.3% to 5.5677 dinars to the USD, after the dinar’s decline last year caused by the crisis over the leader of the central bank.  This also comes after the central bank printed 30 billion dinars to overcome a liquidity shortage in the economy. Exchange transfer risk is now high. Poverty levels remains high and infrastructure continues to be weak, not allowing Libya to fully utilise resources, while progress on easing disruption caused by years of conflict and division will remain vital to the future outlook. The risk of doing business and supply chain disruption remain very high.

Madagascar (MDG)

Overall risk in Madagascar remains medium high. Andy Rajoelina remains president after his 2023 election victory being strengthened by last year’s parliamentary elections seeing the presidential coalition win a slim majority of 84 of the 163 National Assembly seats. Despite this, social unrest persists towards the administration with high poverty (around 75% of the population), lack of transparency seen by the aftermath of elections as well as food insecurity. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk remain high. Madagascar remains reliant on aid and support from the likes of France and the US, however the cuts from the new US administration to USAID food aid programs could halt progress to alleviate poverty for many in Madagascar. Madagascar was involved in a 2024 USDA 35 million USD wheat project, and have benefited from US led agricultural development. In addition, the US are Madagascar’s second biggest export market thus the impact of Trump’s tariff will be significant. Madagascar was initially charged with a 47% tariff rate from the US on April 2 before President Trump’s U-turn. Despite all this, the IMF forecast 3.9% GDP growth in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026, after private investment rose in 2024 benefitting from structural reforms and the liberalization of telecommunications in the resource rich economy. A new gold refinery is being built with support from the UAE alongside greater mineral production focused at primarily reaching more export markets. However, this won’t be sufficient to significantly impact poverty outcomes. One reason for this is inflation which remains an issue in Madagascar with the IMF projecting an 8.4% in price increases this year. Weaker export demand and falls in nickel and vanilla prices (which account for 26% and 17% of exports respectively) is widening the current account deficit expected to reach -6.5% of GDP in 2025, but mostly financed by FDI. Meanwhile, the IMF forecast government debt to GDP to modestly decline this year and hit 51.3%. The inability of the government to provide fiscal stimulus is now down to a medium rating. Despite modest gains in recent months, the Malagasy Ariary remains historically weak levels against the USD. Exchange transfer remains medium high while the risk of doing business stays high with lack of diversification of industries in the economy. The climate risk is a growing threat for Madagascar and its economy with rising temperatures and greater droughts posing a greater challenge to agricultural industries and food security. Supply chain disruption is medium high. Madagascar will however continue to benefit from IMF support under their Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program which approved 337 million USD worth of support and a further 321 USD under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, last year.

Namibia (NAM)

Namibia’s overall risk remains at a medium level. In December, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah was voted in as the first female president of Namibia with her South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo) narrowly retaining their majority in parliament. The election in which she secured 57% of the vote was heavily disputed after logistical issues and a three-day extension to voting. The opposition parties boycotted the result. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk both remain at a medium level. Inequality and unemployment both remain key issues in Namibia with some of the highest levels of any nation in the world as the statistics office said in January that unemployment rose to 36.9% in 2023. Namibia faces an additional challenge with USAID cuts from the new US administration hitting African nations. The IMF forecast growth at 3.8% for 2025. Namibia’s mineral and natural resource dominated industries have seen steep drops in demand such as for diamonds (which provided around half of export earnings) and thus revenue, however growth is continuing to also be supported by investments in oil, gas and green hydrogen. With increasing amounts of crude oil reserves discovered in recent times, there remains an infrastructure gap and a need to diversify the economy to better utilise these discoveries, reduce unemployment and become more climate resilient. In late 2024, former energy minister, Tom Alweendo, told the Financial Times that ‘’If these oil finds are developed to their potential, Namibia could easily double its GDP”. 2024 saw Namibia having to tackle its most severe drought in a century as El Nino’s impact hit the nation, hurting the agricultural sector hard. Government debt remains a cause for concern in Namibia. While it is expected to fall to 63.9% in 2025, according to the IMF, October sees the maturity of a 750 million USD Eurobond which will be their largest single debt maturity in their history. The government have said 625 million USD of this will be paid off from a sinking fund with 125 million USD being refinanced. Sovereign non-payment risk and the inability of the government to provide fiscal stimulus remain medium. Inflation is projected at 3.8% as the central bank has begun easing with four cuts since July 2024 seeing the policy rate currently at 6.75%. However, the huge current account deficit of -15.6% of GDP with rising imports is a major balance of payments threat.  Nambia also seeks to keep the Namibian dollar pegged to the South African rand, once again highlighting the need and wish of the new government to invest more into agriculture, diversification and climate resilience. The risk of doing business remains medium high. 

Sierra Leone (SLE)

Overall risk in Sierra Leone remains high. Julius Maada Bio remains president after his re-election in 2023, where his People’s Party won 81 of 135 seats in parliament. The election result which was met with boycotting from opposition parties was settled in July 2024 where the election review committee committed to greater transparency in the electoral process. Political interference remains high and legal & regulatory risk medium high. Sierra Leone, one of Africa’s poorest nations, continue to feel the effects of recent crisis from the national emergency relating to drug abuse amongst young people as well as last year’s electricity crisis where full electricity supply returned after weeks of it being scaled back when the government eventually managed to pay off some of its debt to suppliers. Fragility also persists from other crises in recent years such as COVID, Ebola and the impacts of war and conflict. Issues such as poverty, rising food prices and corruption has led to continued discontentment in Sierra Leone towards the government. The IMF forecast 4.7% growth for 2025 and 4.9% for 2026. Growth is being boosted by agriculture but mainly the rapid expansion in mining which has helped to foster closer ties with China who invest heavily in the Tonkolili iron mine.  This is run by Chinese group Leone Rock Metal group whose activity is said to account for 18% of the country’s GDP while employing 10,000 people, according to Forbes. However, inflation remains a major issue in Sierra Leone with the IMF projecting 12.9% inflation for 2025, which sees the central bank’s policy rate at 24.75%. This accompanies a high current account deficit of -4.8% of GDP expected for this year, with Sierra Leone only having enough gross international reserves to cover only 2 months of imports. However, government to GDP has been on a downward trajectory with the IMF forecasting it to hit 44.3% of GDP for 2025 with tax reforms helping to bring in more revenue, however the cost of debt is increasing, now at an annual average rate of 40%. Despite effort from the government to ease public distress in setting out a ‘Medium Term Development Plan’ with food security as its core objective, weakness in the Sierra Leonean Leone continues to make food imports extremely expensive. Sovereign non-payment risk is high as well as exchange transfer risk. In addition, the withdrawal of USAID casts doubts over further developmental progress, just months after a U.S. state development fund extended a 480 million USD 5-year grant to the country to improve access to electricity.  However, a 38-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) has been agreed with the IMF, offering around 248.5 million USD worth of development support. Climate change will hit Sierra Leone with particularly greater flooding risk threatening the agricultural sectors. Sierra Leone have joined other climate-hit countries in a push for developed countries to offer more funding. At Cop 29, rich countries promised to raise funding to developing nations fighting climate change. The risk of doing business is high and supply chain disruption medium high.

Somalia (SOM)

Somalia’s overall risk level remains very high. Hassan Sheikh Mohamud remains President after his 2022 election victory. Somalia continues to be affected by continued shocks from conflict to extensive flooding and droughts on top of widespread poverty. Political violence, political interference and legal & regulatory risk all remain very high. Sunni Islamic group in Somalia, Al-Shabaab, continue to be a major threat to Somalia. Attacks have been consistent as the jihadist group’s presence and threat grows in Somalia. They have captured the strategic town of Adan Yabaal in April after capturing villages close to Mogadishu briefly in March. Other significant events include an attacked targeted at President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud in a bomb attack in the capital Mogadishu. U.S. forces have carried out airstrikes in Somalia against Al-Shabaab, including in April, which killed 12 Al-Shabaab militants. Consequently, Somalia is ready to offer the US exclusive control of strategic air bases and its ports. Relations with Ethiopia have been boosted after the port deal agreement deal to recognise Somaliland as an independent sovereign nation allowing Ethiopia to access to the Red Sea. The IMF project 4% growth in 2025. Risks persists with the ongoing violence and climate fragility. In addition, numerous aid programs from USAID have been terminated by the new US administration. Advocacy group, Stand Up for Aid figures show that 170 million USD worth of aid was cut from Somalia. 4.6% inflation is forecast by the IMF for 2025 and 4.0% in 2026. High debt has also plagued and held back the kick-start of the economy. However, after 99% of debt owed to members of the Paris Club of creditor nations was cancelled in 2024, Somalia have signed a 306.5 million USD worth of debt relief aid with the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF). Sovereign Non-Payment Risk remains high and the inability of the government to provide fiscal stimulus medium high. In addition, a -7.6% of GDP current account deficit is projected for 2025 by the IMF. The risk of doing business is very high. The government do aim to keep pushing through greater structural reform and joining the East African Community regional trade agreement. In addition, the government announced that they have granted a licence for Elon Musk’s Starlink to operate, a move they hope will increase internet quality and make it more reachable in urban areas. However, around half of the population still remain under the poverty line and only a third of the labour force are in work and which is predominantly unproductive and low paid. The climate risk is extremely high with flooding and devastating droughts hitting the country in recent times, putting greater pressure on domestic industries like agricultural, making supply chain disruption very high.

South Africa (ZAF)

South Africa’s overall risk score remains at medium, with no changes in any of risk levels in this reporting period. First, the risk of political violence remains high due to high income inequality, poverty and corruption in the country. Structural risks such as high unemployment and logistics bottlenecks remain strong although power supply constraints have considerably eased relative to 2023. The return of power cuts (load shedding) after March 2025 suggests concerns as it will contribute to the inflation readings in H2. On the political front, despite political analysts regard the coalition government relatively successfully, the political interference risk remains at medium-high rating due to recent political frictions as the coalition got tested by the budget and national health insurance, which ignited legal and regulatory risks to remain at medium level. (Note: South Africa passed its budget at the third time of asking on May 22, and lifted VAT 1% over the next two years). Inability of government to provide stimulus remains medium-high due to fiscal constraints. Despite economic problems such as rising level of public debt and high unemployment rate; the macroeconomic outlook continues to improve. Annual inflation stood at 2.8% in April and remained below South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) target range of 3%-6%. The ease of doing business, which remains at medium-high, is helped by moderate inflation and improving economic environment. Capital buffers are sound, enabling banks to withstand shocks as banking sector vulnerability remains at medium-low, demonstrating the relative strength of the financial sector. Despite the economic outlook remaining positive on the back of improved investor sentiment, and falling inflation; there are plenty of upside risks to inflation including the return of loadshedding.

Uganda (UGA)

Overall risk in Uganda is medium high. Yoweri Museveni remains President as he has done since 1986 as he seeks re-election in the next set of elections set for 2026. Geopolitical risk remains extremely prevalent in Uganda with involvement in neighbouring conflicts in both Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. With devastating advances by the M23 in the DRC, there are fears of wider war in the region with Ugandan troops still in the region after supporting Congo in their fights against militant group, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) since 2021. In recent months, Uganda have sent over 1,000 more troops to the east of Congo, near the Rwanda-backed M23 group. Furthermore, Uganda have now deployed special forces in South Sudan’s capital of Juba at the request of the South Sudan government to help ‘secure’ the capital amid the fears of the return to escalation. Conflict on their borders has seen a rise in refugees entering the country. In addition, poverty levels remain high and social frustration towards the government persists, however the President backed by the army, have been able to limit public protests. Corruption remains a major issue in Uganda. The President’s son leads the Ugandan army’s land forces and has admitted to capturing an opposition activist and torturing him whilst holding him captive in his basement. In addition, nine members of the finance ministry have been arrested over a central bank hack leading to the theft of 16.87 million USD. Relations with the West also continues to be tense with human rights abuses and anti-LGBT laws a continued concern. Political violence and political interference are both at high levels. As the for the economy, the IMF forecast 6.1% real GDP growth in 2025 and 7.6% in 2026. The main driver of growth will be the oil sector. The 5 billion USD EACOP oil pipeline project will begin production in 2025 and revenue benefits will thus start to be felt. There has also been a surge in coffee exports, aided by higher commodity prices. The economy has also seen boosts to FDI and private investment, including from the UAE over stakes oil refineries. The current account deficit will remain extremely elevated at -6.4% of GDP according to the IMF this year, but they project it will move towards balance by 2030. They also anticipate modest government debt improvement as the budget deficit falls in the coming years as oil revenues rise. The inability of the government to provide fiscal stimulus is now medium high. The IMF expect inflation to be back to target at 4.2% in 2025, which saw the central bank ease the policy rate at the end of last year, currently at 9.75%. However, infrastructure remains poor and Uganda remain vulnerable to further risks associating to disease and climate change. There were cases of Ebola in early 2025 after the Mpox crisis of 2024. In addition, a landslide killed 28 at the end of 2024. Extreme weather is affecting agriculture and food security as supply chain disruption remains medium high. The risk of doing business remains high.

Zambia (ZMB)

Overall risk in Zambia remains at a medium high level. Hakainde Hichilema is President as he has been since 2021. Political interference and legal & regulatory risk are both at a medium high level. Debt restructuring remains a focal point for Zambia and its economy after their 2021 default after the COVID pandemic and the impact of interest rate rises. Zambia is now in the exit phase of their default after securing deal with main creditors last year under the G20 ‘Common Framework’ program. This has allowed around 900 million USD to be cut from debt and for debt to be repaid over a greater period of time. Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane has said that Zambia aim to sign final debt-restructuring deals with remaining bilateral creditors by the third quarter of the year including with their biggest creditor China. In 2024, government debt to GDP fell to 114.9% as sovereign non-payment risk falls to a medium high rating, reflecting progress but challenges remain. However, after pressure by the IMF on Zambia to secure debt restructuring deals, they have now completed their review of Zambia’s 38-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) loan and given them 184 million USD access to immediate finance. The IMF forecast 6.2% growth in 2025 and 6.8% in 2026. Boosts in copper production will support growth with 2 big mines being privatised, including Vedanta Resources’ USD246 million buyout of Zambia’s biggest copper mine, KCL. Zambia will benefit from a global shift to renewable technology. Zambia will continue the construction of the Zambia-Tanzania Interconnector Project, helping to create one of the world’s largest energy markets, financed by the World Bank, EU and UK. Zambia also remain committed to reforming electricity utilities companies to bolster access to power and utilities. These should all create greater trade opportunities. Thus, the current account surplus is forecast by the IMF to increase in the coming years from 0.5% of GDP in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026. However, a major concern remains persistently high inflation projected at 14.2% this year, putting more pressure on the most vulnerable. The policy rate remains restrictive at 14.5% while the Zambian Kwacha remains historically weak against the USD. Supply chain disruption is medium high as the climate risk heightens with more frequent droughts impacting agriculture, exacerbated by El Nino as the President has claimed that Zambia has lost half of its planted area. The risk of doing business remains medium high.

Zimbabwe (ZWE)

Overall risk in Zimbabwe remains very high. Emmerson Mnangagwa remains President after winning re-election in 2023. President Mnangagwa continues to be under serious pressure from opponents. In March, there were massive protests planned against the president as in January the ruling ZANU-PF party said it wished to extend Mnangagwa’s final term in office by two years until 2030. Fears that the president is trying to keep hold of power has led to a growing opposition, including from independence war veterans who previously supported him as the anticipation of protests closed schools and businesses in Harare and other major cities. A call to action to force the president to step down eventually turned into a shutdown with many people staying away, despite some taking to the streets. Police security and presence is thus high and the economic impacts of business closing down and limited public transport has led to significant instability and leaves the economy fragile. Poverty remains elevated with high levels of corruption also.  Meanwhile, international support and confidence is limited, with the President and his wife both among those subject to sanctions from the US. Political interference is high while legal & regulatory risk is very high. The IMF forecast 6% growth in 2025 and 4.6% growth in 2026. The government have targeted upper middle-income status by 2030 as they wish to build on the foundations of their skilled workforce and high abundance of natural resource potential. Zimbabwe are Africa’s biggest lithium producer and have benefitted from over 1 billion USD worth of lithium investment since 2021, including a 270 million USD deal agreed with two Chinese companies over the construction of a lithium concentrator at the Sandwana mine with the potential to produce 600,000 metric tonnes per year. The current account will remain in surplus in the coming years with the IMF projecting a surplus of 3% of GDP this year. However, inflation remains the key concern in the Zimbabwean economy. Inflation hit 736.1% in 2025 and is expected to remain extremely elevated at 92.2% this year. To help combat hyperinflation and after the Zimbabwean dollar collapsed, they launched their new gold backed currency, the ZiG, last year which does remain fragile and lacks domestic and international confidence after being devalued last September and being down around 50% since its launch as the USD remains frequently used in transactions. The central bank’s policy rate remains at 35%. Government debt to GDP is forecast at 58.6% for 2025. Despite progress on this front with restructuring deal negotiations moving forward and China writing off an undisclosed amount on interest-free debt in early 2024, fiscal risks remain thus fiscal consolidation measures have been taken to not add additional pressure onto the ZiG. Sovereign non-payment risk is high and exchange transfer risk remains medium high. However, the climate risk is requiring increasing attention and government spending after last year’s severe drought induced by El Nino, plus subsequent crop failures and supply shock. Supply chain disruption is medium high while the risk of doing business remains very high.

Please refer to the following link (here) to access our full Country Insight Scores.