Brazil: Bolsonaro Closer to Facing Jail Time

The Brazilian Supreme Court has initiated proceedings against former President Jair Bolsonaro's inner circle. Supreme Court Judges accuse Bolsonaro's entourage of attempting to undermine the rule of law, conspiring against the use of electronic ballots, instigating protesters against the electoral results, and creating conditions for a military intervention to keep Bolsonaro in power. Search warrants yielded documents indicating plans for a state of siege and intervention in electoral institutions, although concrete evidence implicating Bolsonaro fully is still pending. Nevertheless, it appears increasingly likely that Bolsonaro may face imprisonment during Lula’s administration. The judges have already confiscated Bolsonaro’s passport and prohibited communication between Bolsonaro and other defendants. It's worth noting that Bolsonaro is ineligible for eight years due to a speech plotting against electronic voting.

Despite this, Bolsonaro remains a prominent figure among opposition ranks, leading the charge against Lula. Lula's victory over Bolsonaro was by a narrow margin, highlighting Brazil's deep political divide. Some polls suggest that a third of the population would support measures against democratic institutions proposed by Bolsonaro's inner circle. Bolsonaro's party secured the most seats in the deputy chamber (99 out of 513), with many of his allies winning electoral posts. The outcome of recent operations and a potential imprisonment of Bolsonaro will be pivotal in gauging public support for his candidacy. Bolsonaro's entourage has openly clashed with Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes. While Bolsonaro may not be a candidate in the 2026 elections, candidates aligned with him could seek to capitalize on his image and political influence. The upcoming municipal elections in October will serve as a litmus test for Bolsonaro's political strength.

Since the Jan. 8 attack on public buildings, the opposition has struggled to organize large-scale protests and appears somewhat fragmented. However, polls indicate their unity, and Lula's government has failed to significantly erode their support. Regarding Bolsonaro's potential imprisonment, it remains to be seen if he will mobilize protests against it. Lula has turned his own imprisonment into a political spectacle, drawing around 20 thousand supporters before his incarceration. The future of the opposition may hinge on new presidential prospects. Potential candidates include Romeu Zema, governor of Minas Gerais; Tarcisio Freitas, governor of São Paulo; and Bolsonaro's sons, Flavio Bolsonaro and Eduardo Bolsonaro, who are also active in politics.