We expect a 4.8% increase in November existing home sales to 4.15m, extending a 3.4% rise in October and taking the series to its highest level since March. These gains would mark a recovery from a September level that was the weakest since October 2010.
Pending home sales, designed to predict existing home sales, saw strong gains in September and October while a recent revival in the NAHB homebuilders’ index extended into November. Fed easing has clearly been supportive. November’s gain is likely to be led by the South which may have seen some restraint in October from hurricanes.
We expect the median price to show a modest 0.5% decline on the month but this would still see yr/yr growth picking up to 4.5% from 4.0%.