Preview: Due January 17 - U.S. December Housing Starts and Permits - Picture near flat, may weaken in 2025
We expect December housing starts to rise by 4.0% to 1.34m while permits fall by 3.5% to 1.44m. The starts rise will be following three straight declines while the permits fall will be correcting a 5.2% November increase. The underlying picture looks fairly flat.
We expect the single family sector to suggest a fairly neutral picture with starts rising by 0.9% and permits falling by 0.6%.
The volatility will largely be due to multiples, where we expect starts to bounce by 15.1% after a 23.2% November decline while permits fall by 9.1% after a 15.4% November bounce.
Looking forward the picture looks set to weaken in response to fading expectations of Fed easing and higher UST yields. Bad weather is likely to be an additional negative in January.
