U.S. April Michigan CSI - Lower but inflation expectations rise
April’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 77.9 is down from March’s 79.4 but still above February’s 76.5 and generally healthy. Inflation expectations moved higher, the 1-year view to 3.1% from 2.9% and the 5-10 year view to 3.0% from 2.8%, its highest since November.
Inflation expectations remain in a tight range on the 5-10 year view, a range which the 1-year view moved into in late 2023.
We should not be too concerned about the latest rise, which is probably more on recent gains in gasoline prices than reaction to recent inflationary data released by the government.
March’s Michigan CSI was the highest since July 2021 so a modest dip in the index is not a cause for alarm.
The dip came more from current conditions, to 79.3 from 82.5, than expectations, which fell only marginally to 77.0 from 77.4.
