Psychology for major markets Feb 28
USD mildly firm but inflation data at the end of the week likely to drive the next near term trend
EUR/USD – EUR/USD testing the low end of the recent range at 1.08, but focus on upcoming inflation data and a significant move is unlikely ahead of these numbers.
USD/JPY – USD/JPY holding above 150 with falling equity risk premia and low vol continuing to encourage JPY bears, but smaller decline than expected in January inflation helping a modest short term JPY recovery.
EUR/GBP – GBP sentiment buoyed slightly by upbeat comments from BoE governor Bailey and further PMI gains, but EUR/GBP still stuck close to 0.8550.
AUD/USD – AUD slipping lower on weaker regional sentiment and dovish RBNZ, but downside still quite limited unless global equities turn significantly lower.
USD/CHF – CHF risks on the downside after weak CPI with risk sentiment positive and the SNB no longer selling FX reserves.
Equities – US markets remaining close to all time highs helped by strong corporate earnings, but may be vulnerable to any further decline in easing expectations. Focus on inflation data this week.