Psychology for major markets Mar 4

EUR/USD – EUR/USD still holding the 1.08 -1.09 range, having survived a test of the bottom end. Hard to see a near term break, but risks are shifting to the downside as the market looks forward to the US employment report.

USD/JPY – USD/JPY sentiment turned more negative after BoJ’s Takata statement suggesting tightening potential in the spring, but Ueda’s comments restored the balance. Significant JPY upside still likely to require lower yields elsewhere

EUR/GBP – EUR/GBP still stuck close to 0.8550. Mild upside bias seen given greater risks of a downward repricing of UK rate outlook.

AUD/USD – AUD hovering around 0.65 with sentiment still dependent on global equity sentiment, but 0.6450-0.6550 range likely to hold near term.

EUR/CHF – CHF continuing to weaken with EUR/CHF reaching its highest since early January. More upside still possible as SNB remain one of the more dovish central banks.

Equities – US markets remaining close to all time highs helped by strong corporate earnings, but may be vulnerable to any further decline in easing expectations. Focus shifting to next week’s employment data.