Preview: Due February 21 - U.S. January Existing Home Sales - A modest correction lower
We expect January existing home sales to fall by a modest 0.9% to 4.20m after three straight significantly stronger gains. Looking ahead, we note that February saw sharp gains in both 2023 and 2024.
Pending home sales, designed to predict existing home sales, fell sharply by 5.5% in December, but had increased more sharply than existing home sales in the preceding months suggesting existing home sales will not fall as sharply. January survey evidence from the NAHB and MBA held up relatively well. Weather could be a downside risk for January existing home sales, particularly in the West and South, and we expect these two regions, as well as the Northeast, to correct December gains. However, the Midwest has scope to bounce after a December decline.
We expect the median existing home sales price to show a seasonal decline of 0.5% on the month, but yr/yr data is likely to pick up, to 6.3% from 6.0%, reaching its strongest pace since October 2022.
