Preview: Due October 18 - U.S. September Housing Starts and Permits - Picture improving but some risk from weather
We expect September housing starts to see a 1.9% decline to 1330k after a 9.6% August increase though without Hurricane Helene a rise would probably have been seen. We expect permits to rise by 0.7% to 1480k, extending a 4.6% August increase.
New home sales surprised on the upside in July and August and housing survey evidence for September is generally stronger with Fed easing starting. Construction details in September’s non-farm payroll, surveyed before Hurricane Helene, were also positive.
We expect single starts to slip by 3.6% to 960k after a 15.8% August increase that compensated for a 12.8% July decline when bad weather was a factor. However we expect single permits to rise by 1.3% to 980k, which would be a third straight increase after five straight declines and a sign that underlying trend is picking up.
Multiples are volatile but we do not expect any major moves in September. We expect multiple starts to rise by 1.6% to 370k after a 4.2% August decline while multiple permits fall by 0.6% to 500k after an 8.2% increase in August.
