Preview: Due September 27 - U.S. August Advance Goods Trade Balance - Deficit to correct lower within a widening trend
We expect an advance August goods trade deficit of $100.6bn, below the $102.8bn seen in July which was the widest since March 2022 but still consistent with a deteriorating underlying trend.
The deficit would then be wider than the average of July and June’s unusually narrower $96.4bn. We expect August data to show a 0.8% rise in exports and a 0.3% decline in imports.
In real terms we expect exports to rise by 1.5% after a 1.2% July decline supported by a rebound in autos from a weak July and a strong month for aircraft, while we expect real imports to be unchanged after a 1.9% increase in July. However export prices fell by 0.7% in August while import prices fell by a less steep 0.3%.
Advance retail and wholesale inventory data for August will be released with the advance goods trade data, adding to insight on Q3 GDP.