U.S. September Consumer Confidence - Present situation slides sharply
September consumer confidence contrasts stronger Michigan CSI data with a fall to 98.7 from 105.6 in August (which was revised up from 103.3). The data shows a sharp slide in the present situation with expectations also down as well as a weaker labor market view. Inflation expectations however edged higher.
The proportion seeing jobs as plentiful exceeding those seeing them as hard to get fell to 12.6% from 15.9%, an eighth straight fall from 31.7% in January and the weakest since March 2021. While initial claims have fallen in recent weeks the consumer survey looks consistent with further gains in unemployment.
Weaker labor market perceptions will have contributed to a sharp 10.3 point fall in the present situation, its steepest fall since October 2022. With the weakening of labor market expectations just continuing an existing trend there is more to the weaker present situation than the labor market view, with business conditions also taking a hit.
Future expectations took a 4.6 point hit to 81.7, less steep than the present situation but correcting two straight increases. Expectations remain above July’s level as does overall consumer confidence but the present situation index is the lowest since March 2021.
The average expectation for 12 month inflation surprisingly edged up to 5.2% after falling to 5.0% in August, its lowest since March 2020, from 5.3% in July.
