We expect July’s trade deficit to increase to $79.2bn from June’s $73.1bn, resuming a deteriorating trend after a modest improvement seen in June with the deficit reaching its highest level since June 2022.
We expect exports to rise by 0.2% and imports to rise by 1.9%. We expect goods to be consistent with advance data which showed exports unchanged, restrained by weakness in autos, and imports up by 2.3%.
We expect services to show both exports and imports up by 0.5%, exports reversing a 0.5% June decline but imports extending a 0.2% June increase.